Which one should they keep?
Okay, I'm obviously not talking about Aaron Hill. I'm talking about, if the Brewers had to keep one through the year 2020, should they keep Ryan Braun or Jonathan Lucroy. There's almost a 100% chance that one of them will be gone by the beginning of next season, and there's a high chance they will both be gone before 2020. But, if they had to choose one, who should it be?
RYAN BRAUN
Advantages: Ryan Braun's contract on a relatively team friendly deal of $20 million per year (for those laughing, he makes the same as Carl Crawford, David Wright and Shin-Soo Choo, and less than Rick Porcello, CJ Wilson, Matt Cain, James Shields, Jayson Werth, Justin Upton, Hanley Ramirez, Ryan Howard AND CC Sabathia) and it lasts through 2020. There will be little contractual discussions through that time, and chances are if they trade him they'll have to pay him anyways. He is back to playing like his 2011 self, and for those who think he will tail off in 3-4 years, look at what A-Rod did last year and what David Ortiz is doing to baseball this year. There's a chance he'll fall off, but there's also one that he won't.
Disadvantages: What I just said, but in reverse. He might be one of those laughable Shin-Soo Choo contracts come 2020, and it would be wise to move on from Braun. It's also a cap clearing move to lock up players like Jimmy Nelson and Orlando Arcia for future seasons. I think the most important thing, however is that the Brewers farm system is full of high quality outfield prospects. Not only do they have Domingo Santana in the big leagues, but then you see Brett Phillips ready to move up around the beginning of next season. After that, you just drafted OF Corey Ray with the 5th pick in the draft. If that isn't enough to move Braun out, they have 5 more OF prospects in brewers.com's top 15. Sure, they can trade and shuffle, but they'll also not trade all of them. In other words, there's not a lot of room for Braun.
JONATHAN LUCROY
Advantages: He's the (second) best catcher in baseball, and to have a catcher like that on your team is something that has benefited many recent teams. The Giants would not be the same without Buster Posey, and ditto with Molina and the Cardinals. Salvador Perez is a huge reason why the Royals won last year. In other words, why trade a unique commodity, when so many teams are looking for a quality backstop. Do the Brewers really want to be that team in 3 years, looking for a great catcher, or even a mid level one? I wouldn't. Finally, he's beloved in the city of Milwaukee, and even without a hometown discount, the Brewers payroll is low enough that they can afford to keep him, especially with trading Braun.
Disadvantages: If you trade Lucroy, especially to a team with a lot of great prospects, he could bring in more than what the Carlos Gomez-Mike Fiers trade brought to Milwaukee (included 2 of their top 4 prospects), for all of the reasons I just said. Not only that, but Jacob Nottingham seems like he could be the real deal one day, as he's hitting the heck out of the ball in AA Biloxi. Plus, you have Martin Maldonado for now, who is arguably the best backup catcher in baseball (his hitting is bad, but if he gets regular at bats he has shown he can hit). So, we wouldn't be as worse off as most teams. Plus, he's unhappy that the Brewers are rebuilding.
VERDICT
Despite what many of you are thinking based on potential prospect hauls, remember, the key word there is potential. If we trade Lucroy for three high level players from the Rangers system for example, and only one of them turns into a star, or they all have a role but none are stars, shouldn't we just keep Lucroy? Plus, great catchers are a rare commodity, where quality outfielders are not. Plus, if you get rid of Braun, and give Lucroy what Braun earns, the salaries really don't change that much at all. Who knows if the Brewers ever will have a catcher as good as Lucroy again, which is why they need to take advantage of his presence when they get back to contention. In 2 years, he'll realize that it was worth the wait.
