John Deere Classic Betting Picks
Getting back to posting my picks each week for people to consume, in hopes that we can all win a little money. Had Robert Streb at 125/1 odds last week at the Greenbrier Classic and he came up just 1 shot short of holding the trophy. It was a tough loss to take with him holding the lead multiple times on the back 9 but ultimately Xander Schauffele's birdie on 18 gave him the 1 shot victory over Streb. Also had David Hearn to finish top 10 at 5/1, which missed by 1 shot.
Hopefully this week my guys can close out on Sunday, but really like how my picks have been performing lately and like to think that I am trending toward a big week.
This week is the John Deere Classic, which is hosted at TPC Deere Run (Par 71, 7,200-7,300 yards). It's typically a birdie-fest with the winning score usually around -20. Their are 3 reachable par 5s and a ton of short to medium par 4s that require good wedge play. The field is pretty weak with most of the top players in the world playing in the Scottish Open to tune-up for the British.
Typically I will bet 5-7 tournament winners, 2-5 first round leaders, 1-2 guys for top 10 or top 5, and a few tournament matchups. All of that changes weekly and is based off what I see after research.
The tournament favorite this week is Daniel Berger at 12/1 followed by Danny Lee at 16/1, which is where my picks will begin. I typically look to target guys with longer odds than 16/1 but Danny Lee’s form and game match up too well coming into this course. Lee is coming off 7 straight made cuts including 4 top 10s and an insane amount of birdies. He’s been hitting it so well lately that even though his putter has been pretty average, he’s still top 5 in birdies over his last three tournaments. He’s my favorite out of the top tier this week.
My next bet would be Kevin Streelman at 35/1. He’s also in great form, coming in making 6 straight cuts including 5 straight top 30 finishes. Streelman is a consistently good ball striker that thrives in the 125-175 yard range. If his putter gets hot lookout for him this week.
The next player I’m targeting is Ben Martin at 50/1. He’s coming off a 5th and a 37th in his last 2 starts. Other than his Saturday 75 at the Greenbrier he’s played some great golf lately. He leads the field in strokes gained approach over his last 12 rounds and has been making a ton of birdies lately.
Three other guys worth putting a few dollars on are priced at 100/1 or more. I like betting these longshots because you can return a lot for minimal risk. Also if you do have one of them in contention you can always hedge off of them on Sunday and profit no matter what. (Ex. Last week I had $2 to win $250 on Streb. Knowing Munoz had ZERO chance to win that tournament I could’ve put $100 to win $110 on Xander Schauffele at multiple times on the back 9 and returned a nice profit if either him or Streb won)
My three longshots are Smylie Kaufman at 100/1, Scott Stallings at 125/1, and Luke List at 150/1. I think you get a nice price on all 3 of these guys. Smylie has been playing much better lately and has the ability to make enough birdies to get to that -20 or better winning score. Scott Stallings played well last week at the Greenbrier where he had won before, and I think he has a chance to carry that momentum into the John Deere. The last, and my favorite, of my longshots is Luke List. He should never be 150/1 in a field like this and he can ball strike with the best of them. I like to target guys that are good ball strikers, knowing that if they can get the putter semi-hot for a week they have a shot to win. Love the odds on him and the fact that you can throw a couple bucks on him and see a nice return if he wins.
*All odds off of Bovada
TOURNAMENT WINNER BETS
Danny Lee 16/1 ($10 to win $160)
Kevin Streelman 35/1 ($5 to win $175)
Ben Martin 50/1 ($5 to win $250)
Smylie Kaufman 100/1 ($2 to win $200)
Scott Stallings 125/1 ($2 to win $250)
Luke List 150/1 ($2 to win $300)
FIRST ROUND LEADER BETS
Scott Stallings 100/1 ($1 to win $100)
JJ Henry 125/1 ($1 to win $125)
Ryan Brehm 125/1 ($1 to win $125)
Mark Hubbard 150/1 ($1 to win $150)
Brett Stegmaier 150/1 ($1 to win $150)
TOURNAMENT MATCHUPS
Ben Martin > Kevin Na ($40 to win $40)
Bud Cauley > Daniel Summerhays ($33 to win $30)
