Mariners, Rays Talking Trade
If you have listened to Jerry Dipoto at all over the past 3 weeks, you know that he is currently pounding the pavement looking for a starting pitcher. Dipoto, on 710 ESPN Seattle's Hot Stove Podcast, said the team is specifically looking for a " young guy with a few years of control who slides somewhere in the middle of our rotation." Enter the Tampa Bay Rays.
Tampa is currently sitting on a group of young, controllable arms and are looking to take advantage of the weak free agent class by taking advantage of the sellers market. Let us just be clear about one thing: The Seattle Mariners will not, in fact cannot, trade for Chris Archer. It is not going to happen. They simply do not have the pieces required to pull off such a deal.
You can also forget about any Blake Snell fantasy. Snell is perhaps the best young left handed pitching prospect aside from Julio Urias, and the Rays are not selling a young, cheap, controllable stud. Matt Andriese is also likely unavailable for similar reasons. That leaves 3 realistic names that fit into Dipoto's shopping list.
1. Alex Cobb- Cobb is entering his age 29 season, and has only throw 22 innings the past 2 seasons, thanks to Tommy John Surgery. Prior to his injury, Cobb looked like the next big Tampa Bay pitching gem posting back to back sub-3 ERA in his last 2 full seasons. Cobb also had a an ability to miss bats, posting 8+ K/9 numbers in 2013 and 2014, as well as 55%+ groundball rate. Cobb also has solid control, with a sub 3 BB/9 ratio.
Cobb only has 1 year left of club control, and will likely make $4-$6 million in arbitration. This makes Cobb the obvious target for the Rays to trade, but also hurts his value in the trade market. Because of the injury history, and the lack of control over Cobb, the Mariners might be able to swing a reasonable deal for DJ Peterson and a low minors prospect.
2. Drew Smyly- Ok, In the interest of full disclosure, I have a man crush on Drew Smyly, and I have since MLB 2k13 was released. So if at any point, this comes off as a little fan-boyish, I apologize in advance.
Smyly, a left-handed pitcher, is entering his age 28 season, and may be remembered as a big piece in the 3 team deal that sent David Price to the Tigers. Smyly threw 175 innings in 2016, averaging 8.57 K/9 and 2.58 BB/9, with a 4.88 ERA. The ERA sounds high, and he isn't helped much by FIP or xFIP, but still produced a 2.0 fWAR. He is an extreme flyball pitcher, which should help him in Safeco Field with a young, athletic outfield. Smyly LOB%(left on base. In other words, the percentage of runners who reached base who did not score) was nearly 8% lower in 2016 than his career averages.
Smyly fastball is of average velocity, but he gets very good cutting movement, and has a sharp slider as seen below.
Smyly has 2 years of club control before becoming a free agent after the 2018 season, and is likely to make around $7 million this season in his 2nd year of arbitration. The combonation of a high salary and limited club control makes Smyly a very attractive pitcher for Tampa Bay to get off their payroll and still get a decent haul for him. If the Mariners can get Smyly for Ariel Miranda and somebody a mid level prospect, or Luiz Gohara and Luis Liberato, they would likely jump on it as quickly as they could.
3. Jake Odorizzi- Odorizzi is probably the name most Mariners fans are clamoring for. Unfortuanetly, he is also the least likely of these 3 pitchers to be moved. Odorizzi, who will play this season as a 27 year old, is coming off of 3 consecutive solid seasons, posting a career 3.75 ERA and averaging 8.26 K/9 with around 2 BB/9. His overall consistency in the big leagues is something Dipoto undoubtedly desires, as Odorizzi has averaged roughly 175 innings and a 2-2.9 fWAR all 3 seasons.
Odorizzi is a pretty standard 4 pitch guy, using his fastball-changeup combo to get his outs. Odorizzi has a 7 mph difference between the two pitches, and mixes in a solid-average slider and curve.
Odorizzi is arbitration eligible for the first time, and figures to get around $4.5 million this season. He has 3 more seasons of club control, making him desirable to many teams. The competition for Odorizzi could drive the Mariners out of contention for their primary choice, but if they are willing to part with Edwin Diaz, Ariel Miranda and a few other pieces, they might just have enough to snag him.
It is also worth noting that Jerry Dipoto rarely gets just one player back from his trade partners unless he is giving up just 1 player. In other words, he doesnt like to lose the depth. Think Mitch Haniger being added to the Walker-Segura deal, something 710's Mariner insider Shannon Drayer said was absolutely necessary for Dipoto to pull the trigger. If Dipoto is required to give away multiple players, expect him to get something tacked on for his side. Here are a few names to keep an eye on:
Steven Souza- A former big time prospect, Souza has the athletic ability on the bases and in the field that Dipoto covets. He also has 20 HR power. However; Souza appears to have fallen out of favor in Tampa, thanks largely to his career 33% K rate. Dipoto likes guys who put the ball in play and Souza has struggled with that at times. But he has shown the ability to take a walk, and his speed and power combo must be enticing. Perhaps a homecoming with this Washington native can revive the career of this 28 year old.
Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports
Jake Bauers- There is close to a zero percent chance Dipoto can wrestle Bauers away from the Rays, but if he can, Dipoto will certainly be in 7th Heaven. Bauers is almost the dream Dipoto hitter. Bauers had a nearly 1:1 K/BB ratio (89/73 to be exact) with a .370 OBP. He is described as a line drive hitter, who will likely never be a consistent 20 HR guy, but he is just 21 years old. He is probably a firstbaseman, but has shown the ability to play a compotent corner outfield. Bauers player profile closely ressembles Dan Vogelbach, a player Dipoto has shown love towards.
Daniel Robertson- The former first round pick of the Oakland A's, Robertson is another formerly higher touted prospect coming off a down season. He repeated AA after breaking a hamate bone in his left hand in 2015, and didn't look nearly as comfortable at the plate in 2016. Robertson is a shortstop by trade, but figures to move to either third or second. He doesn't have great range at short, but has a quick first step and good instincts to could allow him to stay at short. Robertson is probably viewed as a utility guy who could help in 2017.
Ryne Stanek- Stanek is going to be a high leverage reliever with a 97 MPH fastball and also solid curveballs and sliders. He doesn't have pinpoint control, but struck out 113 men in 102.2 innings with his electric stuff. If Edwin Diaz is involved in any deal, expect he Mariners to ask for Stanek in return.
