Preview: Memphis vs. SMU
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American Athletic Conference play will tip off on Tuesday night when the SMU Mustangs travel to the FedEx Forum to take on Memphis. The game is set to tip at 9:00 for us guys over on the east coast and it will air on ESPNU.
SMU comes in at 10-3, but with zero bad losses so far. They lost to USC and Boise on the road, two teams you would like to beat, but on the road those losses are forgivable. They other lost came against Michigan. Since losing to the Trojans and Broncos, SMU has won 6 in a row and that includes two beat downs against TCU and Stanford.
SMU and first year head coach Tim Jankovich are winning with defense right now. The Mustangs are 13th in the country right now in scoring defense giving up just 59.8 points a game. During this six game win streak they have yet to give up more than 60 points in a game. On Tuesday they will be going up against the American Preseason player of the year in Dedric Lawson for Memphis who is putting up 21 points and 11 rebounds a night for Memphis.
The Tigers also come in with a knew coach in Tubby Smith. Memphis is 9-3 on the year with a bad loss to Monmouth, but came back with a win against Oklahoma in Norman. SMU has a great defense, but Memphis is a top 25 team in offense putting up 84 points a game, so this will be a game of two different styles.
Last year SMU beat Memphis both times they played them. Last year SMU's Shake Milton played very well in both of these meetings. Milton was a high recruit and can drive so Memphis and Tubby Smith need to keep the ball out of his hands.
Memphis has been vulnerable on the defense end this season. Of their twelve games this season, seven teams have put up at least 75 points on the Tigers. This should create opportunities for Duke transfer and SMU leading scorer Semi Ojeleye who is averaging 21 points a game. He is also shooting 45% from three where the Memphis defense has been suspect this year.
The SMU big man Ben Moore will have his hands full inside with both KJ and Dedric Lawson. Memphis is one of the best team in the nation in rebounding this year at 22nd in the country. So this will create plenty of times for 2nd chance points and we will see if they can convert.
The Key to this game will be Markel Crawford. Memphis will dominate the inside, but they do not have the defense to contain the shooting of Milton, Ojeleye, and others. KJ and Dedric Lawson can't do everything so they need another scorer Crawford. Luckily, for Tubby Smith, Crawford has been that third scorer they needed after Austin Nichols transferred. This is a game where Memphis can get into the NCAA conversation with a win.
SMU starts conference play right on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament. This is a game that tournament teams should win. As for my prediction, I do think this will be a very tight game as both teams are coming in with momentum. If this game stays in the sixties I think SMU wins, but if it's high scoring game then Lawson could take over. I'll 67-62 Mustangs. SMU is just to talented on defense and Memphis needs more scorers then the Lawson boys. As long as the SMU offense stays consistent the Memphis defense has proven that can't defend over time.
