Lavar Ball is Killing Lonzo's Draft Stock

So there’s been a lot of hype around Lonzo Ball, and rightly so. The kid has a lot of talent. What has also been in the news whenever you hear the Ball surname is their (if you haven’t heard, after Lonzo there is LaMelo and LiAngelo) father, Lavar. Lavar is his kids own hype man, and this year it’s all for Lonzo. Lavar has said that Lonzo is better than Steph Curry, that his branding potential is only comparable to Michael Jordan’s, and that his oldest son should go #1 overall in the 2017 draft this June. That’s all good, right? There’s nothing wrong with hyping up your kid. Well, not in this case.

What Lavar Ball is doing is clearly boosting his kids draft stock, but in my opinion he is hurting it. He’s an alpha-dad, and he wants nothing less than superstardom for his kids. That’s nice, but think about that in an office sense. Think of John Elway. Elway famously refused to play for the Baltimore Colts and threatened to become a pro baseball player. Baltimore didn’t listen to him, drafted him anyway, and then traded his rights to Denver. The rest is history. For the kids who don’t know who John Elway is, Eli Manning did the same thing. He really, really did not want to play in San Diego, and the team drafted him anyway. They soon traded him to the New York Giants for their pick, Philip Rivers. Lonzo Ball’s problem is a little different than that. Papa Ball wants Lonzo to be a superstar right away. If the rumor of Lavar becoming an agent for all three of his kids turns out to be true, this can be a problem. Lavar the agent is going to want two things for Lonzo, and for the other two if they pan out like Lonzo did: big money and big playing time. If that can’t be reached, I question how long before Lavar, not Lonzo, becomes unsettled.

Lonzo is deservingly in the conversation to be the number one overall pick. The Boston Celtics hold the first overall (not for certain, but they have the Brooklyn Nets first overall, and that one has the highest odds of being first overall) pick in this year’s draft. With a guard rotation of Isaiah Thomas, Marcus Smart, and Avery Bradley (I think Ball is better than James Young, Demetrius Jackson and Terry Rozier, hence why they aren’t mentioned), head coach Brad Stevens isn’t about to drop everything he’s done so well for the organization just to give a rookie starting minutes and a big money deal.

Phoenix has the second overall pick, and this is where Lonzo is supposed to go according to the nbadraft.net mock draft. And that’s fair, A combo of Lonzo Ball and Devin Booker could change the course of this franchise. But I’m just going after the things Lavar wants for his son. Superstar playing time on a team with Eric Bledsoe, Brandon Knight, and the aforementioned Booker is going to be hard to come by.

Papa Ball’s first choice Lakers have the third pick, but even if he is here, I don’t think they draft him. D’Angelo Russel and Jordan Clarkson are the future guards of the team, and the Lakers have more pressing issues to cover. Behind Brandon Ingram, the team’s small forwards are Corey Brewer, Luol Deng, and Metta World Peace. Not exactly the trio you want going forward. Nick Young is the only true shooting guard on the roster. Who can play both? Kansas’s freshman Josh Jackson, that’s who.

Where I think Lonzo will land is at 4, with the Orlando Magic. The team is stuck with waiting on Elfrid Payton to finally develop into their franchise guy, and I think they should give up on that. Elfrid can most definitely still be on the roster, but as an off-the-bench guy. Lonzo Ball is better than Payton, DJ Augustin, and CJ Watson. He’s the guy who could jumpstart the Magic onto the road of winning ways. (disclaimer, I know the Magic don’t have this pick locked in yet. I’m basing this from the mock draft from www.nbadraft.net.) If Lonzo is there, Orlando is the first team that can offer both the playing time and money to satisfy Lavar Ball.

Another thing that worries me is how certain Lavar believes his son is going to be a superstar. That’s cool, nothing wrong with being a supportive parent. And yes, I do think that one day, Lonzo Ball will be a superstar. But as a UCLA freshman, where’s the proof? His game footage is amazing, the hype is real, but that’s what it is: hype. Lonzo Ball has exactly 0 minutes logged on an NBA court. You know what would happen if Lonzo and Steph changed shoes? Steph would shoot UCLA to a NCAA tournament championship, and Lonzo would be coming off the bench, if at all.

I’m a firm believer that it takes three years to make a true NBA “star”. Let’s pretend Lonzo Ball wins the Rookie of the Year award. Does that make him a star? No. You know who also won the ROY? Michael Carter-Williams. Nothing personal against MCW, but he isn’t a superstar. Lonzo Ball is going to have to prove that he isn’t a one season wonder and, in this scenario, not have a career that resembles MCW’s. The sophomore slump has claimed victim after victim, that’s why it is still a phrase today. Lonzo can’t not have a second year, so of course he would have to face this battle too. Even after the second year, I don’t think you can call for a player to be a superstar, not matter how good the numbers are. To be a true star in the NBA, you must consistently do it year after year, and that’s what the third year if for. At year three, Ball can solidify his father’s case that he is a superstar by repeatedly producing the same numbers that got you the hype in the first place. Only after balling out in year three, can you claim yourself to be the next big thing. Lavar is confident his kid can do it, but confidence can only get you so far.

The NBA, like every other professional league in the USA, is a whole new beast to tackle (see Bennett, Anthony). It’s going to take time, something that Lavar Ball is going to have to understand. To be fair, we would not be having this conversation if the Nets had not traded this pick; Lonzo Ball could change the fortunes of that team immediately. And the kid is very, very, good. He is going to be selected top 5 overall, barring he picks up an injury or gets into legal trouble. Hell, he might even be selected first overall and I’d have to sit here and eat my words. I just feel that his draft stock is taking a hit because of his pops. Only time will tell if I’m right.