A Different David Ortiz Replacement: Paul Goldschmidt
Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports
?There is a "Big" (pun intended) hole it the Red Sox lineup as it stands today. David Ortiz will not be there as a solidifying force in the middle of the lineup next season. No one will be able to replace what he meant to the team and the city in terms of leadership, but the Red Sox are going to have to try to replace his production somehow. Names like Carlos Beltran and Edwin Encarnacion have been thrown around. I like Beltran, but he's not a permanent replacement. Encarnacion's numbers are very similar to Ortiz's, but the Sox are going to have to shell out a large, multi-year contract to land him. I used to be on the Encarnacion bandwagon. Now I feel, however, that the best option for Boston is to make a trade. I did a little digging on the web and came across a Baseball Prospectus article which mentioned the idea of Paul Goldschmidt going to the Sox (http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/09/2017-offseason-oracle-goldys-on-first/). After reading and examining Goldy's numbers, he should absolutely be on the Red Sox's radar.
Here's why:
Goldy is one of the best all-around players in the game. He's often overlooked playing on a mediocre team out on the west coast, but Goldy is a beast. There's nothing he can't do (except pitch, I don't think he can do that). He sports a career batting average just a hair under .300. He's good for over 20 stolen bases per year. He'll hit 25-30 homers every year. His 162-game average for RBIs is over 100. He's durable, playing over 150 games in every season except that year he broke his hand. And he's a Gold Glover. Obviously, with that last note, he would not be a Big Papi replacement in terms of playing DH. Hanley could transition to more of a full time DH and he can play 1B when Goldy needs a day off. Chris Young and Pablo Sandoval can DH when Hanley is off or has to slide over to first.
How much would Goldschmidt cost?
A lot. Aside from his stellar numbers, he's locked into a reasonable contract over the next three years ($9 million, $11 million, $14.5 million). And he's only 29, meaning the Sox would have him during his ages 29-31 seasons. The Red Sox would almost certainly have to give up a ton, but, lucky for them, they have a ton of assets that can be given up. The first piece would be Rafael Devers, the Red Sox's #3 prospect. Devers has a high ceiling, but there's no room for him. Sandoval, for better or for worse, is going to be patrolling the hot corner at Fenway for three more year. Second in line for third base duties is Yoan Moncada, who can play third and is supposed to be the best thing since sliced bread. This puts Devers third on the totem pole. The second piece should be Blake Swihart, arguably the Sox best catcher. He hasn't had much time to showcase his talents, playing for a bad Red Sox team in 2015 and being experimented with in Left Field before breaking his ankle this past season. The Sox can get rid of him because, while he is their best catcher, he has the most value of the three catchers and the Sox will be just fine with Leon and Vazquez. They could toss in Travis Shaw for a third piece. Shaw is another odd man out. Sandoval is going to have third, Goldy would have first, Hanley would be the DH, and Holt could fill in at any of these as a back-up. Shaw has power but underperformed this season after a promising spring. Lets throw in Luis Alexander Basabe, Mauricio Dubon, and Trey Ball as additional pieces.
That puts the deal at:
Paul Goldschmidt
For
Rafael Devers
Blake Swihart
Travis Shaw
Luis Alexander Basabe
Mauricio Dubon
Trey Ball
Is that enough? I'd like to avoid adding Sam Travis, Jason Groome, or Michael Kopech if possible. If this isn't enough, throw one of the three in and that should be more than enough for Arizona.
If the trade were to happen, Boston would go into 2017 with a lineup and bench of:
1. Pedroia
2. Goldschmidt
3. Hanley
4. Betts
5. Xander
6. Benintendi
7. Sandoval
8. Leon
9. JBJ
Vazquez
Holt
Young
Some other infield backup
