2016 ALCS Preview and Predictions
The Cleveland Indians ended up sweeping the Red Sox which didn't surprise me a ton since I did have them winning in four games. As I said in my previous article, the Red Sox didn't have a rotation that scares anybody and the Indians have hitting that can be close to the level of the Sox's. The Sox did have the best offense in baseball, but pitching and defense wins championships and that is something that I thought the Indians had with their solid rotation and great/underrated pen. The Indians can go far this postseason if their starters only give up 0-3 runs up until the 7th inning where the pen can do the work. As long as the Tribe are able to keep the lead going into innings 7-9, they will be fine and that is what they did against the Sox.
The Jays surprised me a ton with their pitching and run scoring. They have thrived on late game magic up to this point in the postseason when they don't have the lead in the late stages of the ballgame. Their power didn't surprise me as much, but the poor pitching of the Rangers surprised me a ton and the fact that the Rangers' bats didn't show up surprised me a ton as well, as I thought that the vets in their lineup would become desperate to win but they just disappointed. The Jays power attack really was a huge thing for them this series as they were able to score runs off of home runs mostly, as Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion were the main catalysts for that with Josh Donaldson being the all-around hitter. The pitching was very impressive as well up until game 3 as I think that the bats of Texas just didn't show up either.
Now we combine all those factors together and come up with my predictions:
First, I must say that the Indians lineup is going to be a tougher task for the Jays pitching staff, as I do think that the success of the Jays' pitching was a little flukey. I expect the Indians to produce around the same amount of runs as they did against the Sox because the Jays' pitching staff is going to show its true colors of being not much better than the Sox's staff against the same lineup that the Sox had to face. So, I think that the Indians are going to be able to get 5-7 runs per game like they did against the Sox, but to the Jays this time. The Blue Jays will be facing a tougher pitching staff that the Indians bring up to the plate and I do think that that will end up resulting in fewer home runs which has been a big source of runs for the Jays at this point. If the Indians were able to minimize offensive production of the best offense in baseball, they will be able to shut down the Jays lineup.
Here are my game by game predictions:
Game 1; Toronto at Cleveland: Corey Kluber vs Marco Estrada, Cleveland winning 4-1
I think that we will see the true colors of Marco Estrada in this series and I expect Cleveland to put up multiple runs against the Jays' pitching staff. I see Corey Kluber having a great day once more against a worse offense in the Jays' offense compared to the Sox's offense and I see the Jays' offense not being so productive.
Game 2; Toronto at Cleveland: Trevor Bauer vs J.A. Happ, Toronto winning 5-4
I have Toronto shocking some people and getting it done against Trevor Bauer and the Indians in game 2. Bauer gave up a solid amount of Home Runs to the Sox's offense and I think that he will give up more to a hot Blue Jays offense that thrives off of Home Runs. I don't expect either pitcher to do very well, but what I do expect is productive bats that will be decided by which starter will give up more runs. I do think that Trevor Bauer will give up the lead going into the Indians bringing the Pen in innings 7-9, which will be the decider of this game.
Game 3; Cleveland at Toronto: Marcus Stroman vs Josh Tomlin, Cleveland winning 7-3
The Indians' bats will show up with a frenzy of hits and runs in game 3. I think that the bats will be due for their big game right here and that the Jays will struggle to keep up with the Indians; and by the time the Jays start to get baserunners and runs, it will be too late and the pen will close things down for the tribe. I suspect that the Jays will have many wasted opportunities in this game and it will be the difference.
Game 4; Cleveland at Toronto: Aaron Sanchez vs Mike Clevinger, Toronto winning 6-4
This will be the big game for the Jays' bats, as they will be able to get some offense going against the rookie pitcher in Mike Clevinger, I suspect. The Indians will probably score lower runs than what I'm predicting for this game, but I still suspect that they have a very good offense that can produce 4+ runs per game. I think this will be their due game of struggle, however, as I have Aaron Sanchez doing a nice job against the Tribe.
Game 5; Cleveland at Toronto: TBD vs TBD, Toronto winning 3-2
I have some walk-off magic happening for Toronto in this game, as I have this game being the "struggle game" for a worked Indians pen before going back to Cleveland. Toronto is going to have at least one walk-off in this series and I suspect that it will be in a game that not many people expect them to win.
Game 6; Toronto at Cleveland: TBD vs TBD, Cleveland winning 4-2
Now it is the Indians' turn for some walk-off magic. I think this is the game where they will start to turn up when the time is right and get the victory. I have the bats showing up at the right moment when everybody expects them to lose. This is the "prove it" game for the Indians and this will be the game that gets everybody buzzing about them more.
Game 7; Toronto at Cleveland: TBD vs TBD, Cleveland winning 8-3
Game 7 home team momentum, what more can I say? This will be the offensive explosion game where the crowd is all into it and the Indians get the momentum going into the World Series. The Jays won't be able to recover from their blown opportunity in game 6 and the Indians will be advancing to the World Series.
