Complete Guide to the NCAA Tournament
Conference tournament week is over in college basketball, and everybody knows what that means: It’s time for the madness to begin. The field is set, and millions of people everywhere are trying to fill out the elusive perfect bracket, or at the least just trying to win their family pool. But while the excitement is real, it’s often hard to know who to pick or what to watch, so here’s a guide to try to make sense of all the madness that March has to offer, from contenders to storylines and everything in between.
Contenders
Villanova
The defending champs are back, and this time as the tournament’s number one overall seed. Player of the Year candidate, Josh Hart has helped lead this team to a 31-3 season, and so has last year’s tournament hero Kris Jenkins. Coach Jay Wright’s team steamrolled through the Big East tournament, exhibiting everything a National Championship team needs. They can shoot as well as anyone, have strong guard play, boast enough size inside, and get fantastic production off the bench in the form of Phil Booth and Dante DiVincenzo. Teams seldom repeat as champions, but if anybody can, it’s the Wildcats.
Duke
Let’s face it, this Duke team is stacked, and despite some early struggles, they’re coming into the tournament red hot off an ACC tournament championship. The Blue Devils are led by freshman phenom Jayson Tatum and sophomore guard Luke Kennard, who have shouldered the scoring load for the bulk of the season. Most importantly, however, is the presence of veteran leadership from guys who helped guide this team to a National Championship in 2015. Amile Jefferson, Matt Jones, and Grayson Allen were all integral parts of that team, and have created the perfect balance of young talent and tournament experience. This is a smaller team than Coach K is used to, but they more than make up for it with their firepower on the offensive side of the ball.
Kentucky
John Calipari has coached a lot of NBA guards in his days at Kentucky, but has he ever had a backcourt as talented as this one? De’Aaron Fox, Malik Monk, and Isaiah Briscoe lead a Kentucky backcourt that combine to average 49.5 points per game en route to a third consecutive SEC championship. The Wildcats’ trio of guards has helped them garner impressive non-conference wins as well, including a 103-100 victory over North Carolina that featured a 47-point night from Monk. They’re anchored by Bam Adebayo, a Dwight Howard clone with the ability to defend guards on the perimeter. The difference with this Kentucky team is that they have seniors playing big minutes, something we haven’t seen in Lexington in years, and coupled with this talented young group, the Wildcats can win it all.
De'Aaron Fox (0) and Malik Monk (5) look to bring the Wildcats back to the promised land.
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Notre Dame
The Fighting Irish enter the tournament as a four seed, but that shouldn’t scare anybody away from picking this team to go far. Notre Dame has made the elite eight the past two years as a three seed and a six seed. This is a mature team that forces turnovers (13 per game) but doesn’t turn it over themselves (9 per game). Matt Farrell has mastered Mike Bray’s offense at the point, and Bonzie Colson is a walking double-double who can play inside and out. The Irish have continued to excel in close games, in part due to excellent shooting from the line, where they rank first in the nation in free throw percentage. Don’t be surprised to see this team in Phoenix come the final weekend.
Other contenders: Arizona, UNC, Kansas
Pretenders
Baylor
Remember when Baylor was 15-0 and beating top teams left and right? Well that was a couple months ago, and after losing five games in February and dropping their last game to Kansas State, the Bears are certainly not getting hot at the right time. Scott Drew’s bunch are still benefitting from a tremendous non-conference resume, which has earned them a generous three seed from the committee. With a big day from star forward Jonathan Motley, Baylor has the potential to beat anybody, but if Motley gets in foul trouble, this team struggles offensively. They only shoot the three at below a 36% clip. If you still aren’t convinced, check out Baylor’s tournament history.
Gonzaga
Mark Few has done all he can to break the mold of his past Gonzaga teams that have run through a pedestrian schedule only to miss out on the Final Four come March. The Zags have beaten strong opponents in Arizona and Florida, losing only one game all year. They also have one of the nation’s best point guards in Nigel Williams-Goss. What this team is lacking is athleticism, and save for Williams-Goss, this team doesn’t have any playmakers. Przemek Karnowski is a rock in the post, but he also moves like a rock, and this team will struggle inside against more athletic competition than the West Coast Conference has to offer. Many people think this is the Gonzaga team that can finally get it done, but those people might have to wait another year.
Florida State
The Seminoles carved out a spot atop the ACC this season, making them relevant again with wins over Duke, Virginia, Notre Dame, and Louisville. They’re led by NBA prospect Jonathan Isaac and All-ACC first team selection Dwayne Bacon. Most notably, this team has tremendous size. In fact, Leonard Hamilton’s group is the tallest team in the nation. However, Florida State has really struggled away from home, going 3-6, and last time I checked, the tournament isn’t being played in Tallahassee. In order for Florida State to make a run, they’re going to have to string together wins away from home, something they’ve struggled to do all year.
UCLA
What!? But what about Lonzo Ball, freshman sensation, the Lakers’ savior, the next Michael Jordan, and prince of the royal Ball family of Chino Hills!? Yes, Lonzo has had an outstanding freshman campaign, but has this UCLA team proven enough to warrant championship status? The Bruins are still riding high off a non-conference win against Kentucky, but beyond that their resume is rather unimpressive. UCLA has the 8th worst strength of schedule out of all of the major conference teams, sitting one spot worse than Gonzaga. They weren’t one of the two best teams in the Pac-12 either, and with TJ Leaf nursing an ankle injury, this team is going to be heavily reliant on Ball to carry them to the final four. Maybe he’s up for the job, but I’m not convinced.
Can Lonzo Ball (left) live up to the expectations that his father (right) has placed on him and the Bruins?
Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports
Other pretenders: West Virginia, Virginia, Florida
Cinderella Teams to Watch
Middle Tennessee
You remember Middle Tennessee. They’re the team that busted your bracket on just the second day of the tournament last year by beating upsetting title-favorite Michigan State. Well, they’re back and six wins improved over last year. Kermit Davis turned down the Memphis job to come back and coach in Murfreesboro, and this is why. It’s hard to believe last year’s team was missing JaCorey Williams, who leads the Blue Raiders in scoring with 17.3 points per game. He’s accompanied by the tandem of Giddy Potts and Reggie Upshaw. Potts is listed at a generous 6’2, but is one of the best three point shooters in the country. Upshaw is a dominant presence on the boards, averaging seven rebounds per game and earning a selection to the all-conference defensive team. This team looks like it might be busting brackets again. Just don’t let it be yours this time.
Florida Gulf Coast
Speaking of teams busting brackets, Dunk City is back and their name continues to stick. The Eagles led the NCAA in dunks, and their high-flying offense accounts for nearly 80 points per game. FGCU isn’t going to beat you with the three, but they rank 14th nationally in 2-point percentage, and their offense all starts with Brandon Goodwin. Goodwin averages 18.2 points per game and north of four rebounds and assists. There might not be any overlap from the team that knocked off Georgetown and went to the sweet sixteen, but their identity remains intact, and that can pose trouble for their opponents.
Rhode Island
Coach Dan Hurley’s squad was on the outside looking in a month ago at 16-9. Now eight straight wins and an Atlantic 10 championship later, they look poised to make a run in the tournament. The Rams were a preseason top 25 team that battled injuries all year, but this is a team that is healthy and hot at the right time with the size to match up with power conference teams. Rhode Island allows less than 65 points per game, with Hassan Martin and Kuran Iverson holding down the fort down low. EC Matthews is a gifted scorer that rounds out a balanced team that is battle tested both in and out of conference.
Wichita State
This isn’t the same Wichita State team that made the final four back in 2013, or the one that went 35-0 in the regular season in 2014. Those players are long gone. That isn’t stopping Greg Marshall from making noise again with his Shockers, as they come into the tournament on a 15 game win streak, the second longest streak in all of college basketball. Wichita State is a team that has put their name on the map, but they are still considered a Cinderella team, and are massively underseeded. Most of all, when you talk about teams that can pull off upsets in the NCAA tournament, often times you’re looking at teams that can knock down threes in bunches, and that’s exactly what the Shockers do. They aren’t shy to hoist up triples, knocking them down at a 40.8% rate, which ranks fourth in the nation. This isn’t your typical ten seed, and they’ll look to show the country that they were slighted.
The Shockers took home the Missouri Valley title, but it wasn't enough to convince the committee that they are worth anything more than a ten seed.
Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
Other Cinderella teams to watch: UNC-Wilmington, Vermont, East Tennessee State
Players to Watch
Frank Mason III - Kansas
You can’t talk about individuals to watch without starting with the favorite to win Player of the Year, and that’s Frank Mason. Mason is a big part of why Kansas is the second overall seed in this tournament and the overall favorite to bring home the trophy in Phoenix. He is averaging 20.8 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 5.1 assists, stellar numbers from a guy who stands just below six feet tall. He also serves as one of the nation’s best perimeter defenders. Mason first put his name on the map with a game winner against Duke back in November, and it’s been nothing but up from there for the senior.
Caleb Swanigan - Purdue
In the age of point guards and three-point shots, people often forget the impact a dominant big man can have on a game. Just ask Jahlil Okafor, Frank Kaminsky, or Karl-Anthony Towns. It wasn’t that long ago that those three guys took their teams the Final Four. This season, Caleb Swanigan can be that guy. Purdue boasted the best record in the Big Ten for the first time in seven years, and Swanigan is the reason why. The 6’9 sophomore averaged 18.5 points and was the nation’s second leading rebounder with 12.6 per game. Swanigan is undoubtedly the best big man in the country, and he’s a must-watch every time the Boilermakers step onto the floor.
Semi Ojeleye - SMU
Semi Ojeleye (it’s pronounced Shemmi) is one of those rare Duke basketball recruits that just didn’t work out in Durham. After two seasons in which he rarely saw the floor at all, Ojeleye transferred to Southern Methodist, and he hasn’t looked back. Right off the bat, Ojeleye demanded attention on the court. He’s listed at 6’7 and 235 pounds, but sports a physique that rivals that of LeBron James, and he puts every ounce of his body to use. He is an instant highlight reel, capable of putting up 30 and 10 on any given night (just ask ECU). He also possesses a unique stroke for a guy his size, knocking down 42.3% of his three-point attempts. Ojeleye was named the American Athletic Conference Player of the Year, leading SMU to an AAC regular season and tournament championship in the process, and with him at the helm, he could very feasibly add a Final Four appearance to that resume.
Semi Ojeleye will look to lead an underseeded Mustangs team to the Final Four, which would make them the first six seed since 1992 to do so.
Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports
Grayson Allen
Allen is America's biggest on-screen supervillain since Heath Ledger played the Joker in The Dark Knight, which makes him must-see TV, but that’s not the only reason he’s one of the players to watch in this tournament. Entering this season, Allen was the Preseason Player of the Year. Now as the tournament approaches, he isn’t even one of the two best players on his team. That designation goes to Tatum and Kennard. His antics aside, Allen has played some of his best basketball lately, putting up 18 points in both the ACC quarterfinal and semifinal matchups, helping Duke defeat two top teams in Louisville and UNC. He also knocked down seven of ten threes in those two games. When he is at his best, Duke might just be the best team in the country, and if they win it all, bet on Grayson Allen being a big reason why.
Other players to watch: Dillon Brooks, Bonzie Colson, Jawun Evans
Stories to Watch
Michigan’s Miracle
Four days ago, it wasn’t clear the Michigan Wolverines would even make it to the Big Ten tournament. In fact, basketball was probably the last thing on their minds. The Michigan plane scheduled to fly them to the tournament in Washington D.C. skidded off the runway and crashed. Thankfully, nobody was injured, but some of the players were shaken up. The Wolverines eventually made it to D.C., but had to play against Illinois in their practice uniforms because their other ones couldn’t make it on the flight with them. Michigan was the eight seed in the tournament, but they went on to beat Illinois, Purdue, Minnesota, and finally Wisconsin en route to an inspiring Big Ten championship. In the words of coach John Beilein, “we’re playing right now like we’re just blessed.” Michigan will try to carry that momentum and that blessing into action this coming week.
Northwestern’s First Berth
It’s been a big year of firsts for sports fans in Illinois. Not long after the Cubs win their first World Series in 108 years, the Northwestern Wildcats finally earned the right to play for a championship for the first time in their 78-year history. Northwestern was the only major conference team that hadn’t made the tournament, and they were able to break the streak this year. Coach Chris Collins has this team poised to make an impression in their first appearance. Collins, the son of Basketball Hall of Famer, Doug Collins, is a local guy and has this team playing their best basketball in the program’s history, coming off a good showing in the Big Ten tournament and a full-court pass leading to a buzzer-beater against Michigan.
Dererk Pardon banks in the game-winner to beat the Wolverines and seal Northwestern's first tourney berth.
David Banks-USA TODAY Sports
Making the Big East Great Again
The Big East used to be the premier conference in college basketball. That was before nearly the entire conference abandoned ship, including Syracuse, Louisville, Pittsburgh, UConn, West Virginia and Notre Dame. Today’s conference bears very little resemblance, but with 70% of the teams making the NCAA tournament, the conference is making its way back to prominence. Villanova is the number one overall seed, and with teams like Butler, Creighton, and Seton Hall returning to the tournament to potentially do some damage. The rivalry aspect is there as well, with things getting heated in MSG when Nova took on Seton Hall this past weekend.
Could this be Cinderella’s year?
Everybody loves a good Cinderella team, and mid-major teams have made major runs in recent memory. Whether it’s VCU, Butler, Butler again, Wichita State, or Dayton, lower-seeded teams have shown the potential to make a splash in March. Now in a season where no team has really separated itself from the pack, the distance between the power conference teams and the rest of the field seems to be smaller than ever. The door might just be open for a Cinderella team to not just make a run, but to make it all the way. Could this be the year?
Other stories to watch: The Ball family, Syracuse snubbed, First repeat in eleven years?
