Dallas's Spec-Dak-ular Run
Now 13 weeks into the season, it’s time to stop making excuses. The Dallas Cowboys are for real. And let’s not kid ourselves. Isn’t football so much more fun when they are?
The Cowboys knocked off the Minnesota Vikings Thursday night for their 11th win in a row, making them one step closer to clinching home-field advantage in the NFC. In fact, the Cowboys can clinch the number one spot next week if things go their way. And who would have thought that the tandem of two rookies would be dominating the NFL three quarters of the way through the season?
This Dallas team is an enigma. You either love them or you hate them, but at the helm of the ship is an unassuming hero revered by all. This wasn’t supposed to be Dak Prescott’s team. Prescott, a fourth-round rookie out of Mississippi State, was a convenient draft pick for a Cowboys team that needed a serviceable option at quarterback if Tony Romo went down like he did in 2015. He wasn’t even the pick that Cowboys fans were raving about. That was Ezekiel Elliott, Ohio State’s mega-back looking to set the league on fire after Jerry Jones and his staff took him fourth overall this past May. And Zeke has done just that since he stepped foot in Dallas. He has been one of the best players in the league in his rookie season, but a running back can only take a team so far. The Cowboys needed great quarterback play, and Prescott has provided just that.
Dak’s poise was first on display when he led his team down the field to score the game winning touchdown to knock off the Redskins on the road in week two. He followed that up with an impressive road win in Green Bay, throwing for 247 yards and three touchdowns. The next week at home on Sunday night against the Eagles was perhaps his biggest test yet, as Dallas looked down and out early. The first top defense Prescott had faced looked to be getting the better of him, but Dak still looked calm as ever, as he managed to lead his team down the field to hit Dez Bryant for the game-tying touchdown late in the fourth. The Cowboys won the toss in overtime, and Dak led his team right down the field for the game-winning score, a touchdown pass to Jason Witten on a beautiful rollout by Prescott to buy time for the throw. Two weeks later in Pittsburgh, he led Dallas to two scores with under two minutes left to stun the Steelers, as Elliott capped it off with a 32-yard game-winner.
If not for his own teammate in Elliott, Dak would have locked up rookie of the year by now. He will likely go down as the greatest rookie quarterback of all-time, and maybe the best rookie in history. So if Ezekiel Elliott is having the best running back season in the league, the Cowboys have the best offensive line in football, and Dak Prescott is on the verge of the best rookie season in history, why are there still skeptics? The problem is that there are still a lot of assumptions swirling around the league about Dallas, and here is why they are false.
Assumption #1: Prescott and Elliott are only good because of the offensive line.
You can’t say enough about this offensive line. They have been extremely impressive, but Dallas’s skill position players are more than capable of succeeding on their own. Ezekiel Elliott was a top five prospect regardless of where he was going to end up. What makes Elliott great has nothing to do with simply running through big holes. Elliott has a combination of speed and strength that allows him to be so dominant. It’s when he reaches the second level that he really excels. He attacks defenses, putting his shoulder down and driving into defenders, picking up yards after contact. This was first on display against the Seahawks in the preseason, when Elliott trucked Kam Chancellor, one of the league’s hardest hitting safeties, leading Chancellor to laud Elliott after the game. Elliott also has the unique speed to run away from defenders, and when he gets behind the defense, there’s no catching him. The offensive line can create holes for Elliott, but when he gets to the second level, that’s what really makes him special.
As far as Prescott goes, his ability to stand in the pocket and deliver accurate passes down the field is inherently aided by his offensive line. When Prescott is at his best, however, is when he is extending plays using his legs, still looking downfield to find his receivers. He looks like a bigger Russell Wilson in that he feels the rush and is able to avoid it while keeping his eyes downfield. Prescott leads the league in QBR, the NFL’s most respected metric in judging a quarterback’s play. He ranks top ten in yards and completion percentage and top five in yards per attempt and passer rating. His offensive line doesn’t control what’s in his head, and that’s the strongest part of his game. Dak acts and plays like a veteran, and with his talent and those qualities, he’d be a great quarterback even without the five guys in front of him.
Assumption #2: Dallas’s defense will hold them back in the future.
The Cowboys might not have names that dazzle on defense, but this unit is the fifth best scoring defense in football. With an offense as potent as theirs is, an average defense would do the job in helping this team win, and Dallas’s defense has been that if not more so far. This is a unit that held the Packers to 16 points and forced four turnovers in Green Bay in what was their peak performance of the year. Sean Lee has been a ball hawk all year, ranking third in the league in tackles. He leads a run defense that ranks third in the league, allowing just over 80 yards per game. In an NFC playoff picture full of established quarterbacks, being able to stop the run is essential so that the defense can key on the pass. Dallas has a very good run defense and has shown the ability to hold top offenses under 20 points, a total easily low enough to win games with an offense that routinely breaks 30.
Assumption #3: The Cowboys are 11-1 because they’ve had a weak schedule.
For starters, even an 11-1 team with the weakest strength of schedule is extremely impressive. Even the best teams in the league year after year struggle to win more than 90% of their games, and frequently lose to teams infinitely worse than them. Last year’s Broncos lost games to an 8-8 Colts team and a 7-9 Raiders team. The Super Bowl winning Patriots from the year before lost to Miami and Buffalo, both subpar teams, and got blown out by Kansas City. The 2013 Ravens dropped a game to the 4-12 Eagles. Going 1-0 each week may sometimes seem like a convenient answer to an interview question by players and coaches, but it isn’t an easy task to go out and beat the team across the field week after week no matter who it is. This works under the assumption that the Cowboys really do have a weak schedule, but even that is a stretch. Strength of schedule is measured by the combined record of the opponents from the previous year. It doesn’t take into account the fact that the NFC East is the second best division in football this year, with all three teams looking strong. Those account for six of the Cowboys games. They have already a consistently dominant team in the Packers, the second-ranked Vikings’ defense, a stacked Pittsburgh offense, the surging 7-5 Ravens, and have matchups against the 8-4 Lions the 7-5 Buccaneers in the coming weeks. Just because this team hasn’t taken on the Patriots or Seahawks doesn’t mean they haven’t been tested.
Assumption #4: Dak doesn’t have the experience to win in the playoffs.
Look at rookie quarterbacks leading their teams to the playoffs in the 21st century. It is no longer an uncommon phenomenon, especially in today’s NFL, where not too long ago three rookie quarterbacks started games in the first weekend of the postseason. Once they’re there, however, first and second round exits are ubiquitous. Obviously a first round exit isn’t likely in the cards for the Cowboys, as they won’t play that weekend, and a second round exit would be considered a failure, but a conference championship run isn’t unlikely either. In recent history, three rookie quarterbacks have started conference championship games, a decently high number. Those quarterbacks were Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, and Mark Sanchez. None made the Super Bowl, but while Big Ben and Flacco are both very successful quarterbacks, neither had nearly the rookie season that Prescott boasts. Prescott’s most acknowledged trait is that he plays nothing like a rookie, and he very well could be the player to break the streak of rookie quarterbacks failing to make the Super Bowl. Prescott hasn’t succumbed to the standard of past rookie quarterbacks all year, as he’s broken several records as the season has gone on, so there’s no reason to believe that he’ll start doing that now.
This may not be the season that fans expected from the Cowboys when Romo was at the helm, let alone with a late-round rookie leading this group, but the Cowboys are here to stay, and they are ready to make noise in the playoffs. Just don’t expect to hear about it from a guy as humble as Dak Prescott. He’ll save that for Dez.
