Should the 49ers Hire Chip Kelly?
Chip Kelly smiles?
Let's get this out of the way now that Jim Tomsula has been fired. The 49ers head coaching job is still one of the most desirable in the NFL. After the last two seasons, many fans and reporters are asking how could anyone want to work with Owner/CEO Jed York and GM Trent Baalke after what they did to one of the best coaches in Jim Harbaugh by replacing him with one of the worst in Jim Tomsula? The answer is that the 49ers are still one of the most storied franchises in the NFL. With five Super Bowl titles, a brand new stadium, a top 1st round draft pick and a QB with a lot of upside potential, all of it makes it a much more enticing job than the rest of the openings out there. We all know Jim Harbaugh found it pretty enticing, and it turns out, top-tier candidates have already expressed interest.
Reports have surfaced that Chip Kelly, Mike Shanahan, Mike Holmgren and Sean Payton have expressed interest in the position. If you had any doubt in the attractiveness of the 49er head coaching position before, it's time to relinquish that anti-Jed York vein that's been pulsating out of your forehead for the last year and sit back for a minute. That list represents almost as many Lombardi trophies as the 49ers have in their trophy case at Levi's Stadium. In fact, it includes 4 Super Bowl titles (all of them coming since the Niners last Super Bowl victory in 1994), 16 division titles, 26 playoff appearances and a deep history of developing quarterbacks and offenses. Since Trent Baalke has been pretty successful in compiling defensive talent, but completely failing to find offensive play makers, it is imperative that the 49ers go out and get someone who will be a visionary on offense. After such a horrendous 2015, the Niners now must look to hire a big name, a top-tier offensive mind to turn the franchise around in 2016. They did it with Harbaugh, now they have to do it again.
As much as it pains us to do this, you have to give Jed York credit for recognizing the fact that he made a mistake with Jim Tomsula. By firing him after one season, it is an admission that he made a mistake, that he probably should have handled the Harbaugh situation better, but at least he's committed to putting a winning product on the field going forward. Jed York said as much during his press conference today. He obviously has been humbled by this season and admittedly apologized to the fans for what happened. He's also made a great decision to let Trent Baalke lead the head coaching search, which is huge, like Donald Trump huuuuge. It means he shouldn't have as much input as he's had in the past, which resulted in two complete failure hires in Mike Singletary and Jim Tomsula. The less football decisions he makes and the more he leaves it up to the football people, the better off the Niners will be. I believe Baalke is smart enough to hire a great coach. Now the question is, who will it be? And what will they do with Kaepernick?
The big elephant in the room is whether or not Chip Kelly is the right choice. At first glance, it's definitely the riskiest option. Can the 49ers afford to make such a risky pick after a disastrous season? Chip Kelly is a great offensive mind who put together successful offenses in Philadelphia. In his first season, he turned around a team that was 4-12 and won the division with a 10-6 record. In his second season, the Eagles also went 10-6, but barely missed the playoffs. Then it all went downhill as his ego got in the way as he asked for more power over personnel. He got that power and quickly pushed out talented players such as DeSean Jackson, Lesean McCoy and Jeremy Maclin. Then he traded for a fragile QB in Sam Bradford and went 6-9 this year before getting booted. Kelly is risky because he carries a lot of similar characteristics as Jim Harbaugh, especially in terms of personality. He's a bit of a lone wolf, has an ego, been called a racist and has fallen out of favor with players and management. If the 49ers hire Chip, then why did they fire Harbaugh in the first place? Oh excuse me, "mutually part ways". You have to question whether his offensive prowess is good enough to offset the potential negatives. Will he hurt the 49ers in acquiring free agents? Is he capable of fielding a solid defense? Would he rally the fan base or continue to widen the divide?
The upside of Chip Kelly is an obvious one. He could be the one guy to resurrect Colin Kaepernick's career. And actually, I think it's a pretty safe bet that Kelly and Kaepernick would put together one of the most dynamic offenses in the NFL. Kaepernick's confidence would skyrocket in a offense that he knows how to run and excel in. We've seen what Kelly can do with a dual threat QB in college, but we haven't even seen what he can do with one in the NFL. Like peanut butter and jelly, it could be a wildly successful combination. But if the Niners choose that route, does that mean they'll give up the chance to acquire a future franchise QB in Jared Goff with their first pick? These are definitely the questions they'll be asking themselves and all of the candidates.
If the Niners view Chip Kelly as too risky, then they can go with a safer option, but one that has Super Bowl ability. That guy is Sean Payton. I said it last year and I'll say it again, the Niners need to hire Sean Payton. He's the smart, aggressive play caller and leader that the Niners need. In nine seasons as the head coach of the Saints, Payton has made the playoffs five times, winning three division titles and more than 10 games each time. His worst season was only 7-9. He won the Super Bowl in 2009 with an aggressive offense and defense and if it weren't for the Seahawks and Niners, the Saints probably would have gone further in 2010-2013. Payton is also a great fit because he is a Bill Parcells disciple, which he shares with Trent Baalke. Therefore, Baalke and Payton would be on the same philosophical page and likely agree on many decisions. Whether he chooses to keep Kaepernick, you know the QB who's already led the Niners to the Super Bowl or if he chooses to draft Jared Goff as the guy, Sean Payton will be able to succeed. Payton stole Drew Brees from San Diego and turned him into a hall of fame QB. He may be able to do it again with Kaepernick or Goff.
The only challenge in acquiring Payton is that he is still under contract with the Saints and they'll be asking for compensation in return. According to reports, the Saints are asking for a 2nd round pick. With the Niners picking so high this year, their 2nd round pick is almost a 1st round pick. If I were Baalke, I'd give them the 3rd round pick, which is almost a 2nd round pick and seal the deal. Is giving up a draft pick worth it? Well let me ask you this, if the Niners ended up winning a Super Bowl with Sean Payton wouldn't you give a up a measly 3rd round pick (who mostly likely has an ACL tear) in order to get that elusive sixth Lombardi? No doubt.
Mike Shanahan and Mike Holmgren both served on the 49er staff during the 1990s and have been very successful head coaches in multiple stops. Shanahan even had success with Robert Griffin III and could easily do the same with Kaepernick. Shanahan is known as a QB guru and was the offensive coordinator when the 49ers last won the Super Bowl. He's a tough-nosed coach who will put together a disciplined team, something that was severely lacking this year. Holmgren had a lot of success in Green Bay with Brett Favre and was actually successful in Seattle, even taking them to the Super Bowl with Matt Hasselback. I think both of these coaches could have mild success with the 49ers this time around, but since they are getting up there in age, I just don't seem them being the ones to bring home the title.
The two other candidates rumored as possibilities are Stanford's David Shaw and Cincinnati offensive coordinator and former Raiders head coach, Hue Jackson. David Shaw has continued the success that Jim Harbaugh laid at Standford and could do the same with the Niners. He runs the type of offense that Trent Baalke loves and his demeanor could be a great fit in the NFL. He's a smart guy, one who has achieved great heights at Stanford, so there's not much left to prove there, he has to consider the jump to the NFL. Hue Jackson has done great things offensively this year with Andy Dalton. He also led the Raiders to one of their best seasons over the last two decades, at 8-8. Yes, at least we're not the Raiders! But at the end of the year he blamed his players, showing that he may not have the leadership skills for the head coaching role. I'm not convinced he's learned his lesson and I'd pass on Jackson.
We'll definitely be salivating over every rumor and tweet over the next week regarding the head coaching search, but hopefully this time around we'll get to enjoy the end result. If Sean Payton is that guy, there's no doubt in my mind the Niners will return to glory.
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