OTH's SEC West Preview
It is that great time of the year again, football season is finally upon us. Now is the time you start to see previews galore. With help from Phil Steele's fantastic College Football Preview magazine, I will guide you through my thoughts and previews for teams this upcoming season. This edition: SEC West. Enjoy!
This season's SEC should continue the trend of being the best and most competitive conference in college football. With five teams being ranked in Phil Steele's preseason top 25, that number could easily be seven or higher once the national polls arrive. The backbone of the SEC is the SEC West, with teams such as Alabama, Auburn and LSU. The SEC West will most likely have a team represented in the CFP once January arrives (most likely Alabama), but the whole division is not Alabama. There are dark horse candidates within this division that could slip their way into the SEC Championship Game with a little luck and eventually could be in contention for the CFP.
Let's start off with the Alabama Crimson Tide... Alabama is once again the team to beat in college football this season. Nick Saban's Crimson Tide returns their top players on both sides of the ball. This includes the return of QB Jalen Hurts (Bama's first returning experience QB since 2013), Steele's #1 ranked running core of Bo Scarbrough and Damien Harris as well as wide receiver Calvin Ridley. Not to mention the strong offensive line led by LG Ross Pierschbacher to round out the NFL caliber offense. The Crimson Tide defensive is one not to be reckoned with come this season. All three major aspects of Alabama's defense (defensive line, linebackers, and defensive backs) are all ranked within Steele's top 6 of their prospective positions in the NCAA (DL #6, LB #1, DB #2). Alabama will most likely allow one of the least amount of opponent points come this season and will certainly have more first round NFL talent coming off the board in 2018. The one thing that could possibly be holding Alabama back is their intensity of their schedule. Opening their season against preseason #2 Florida State and then their difficult SEC schedule against Texas A&M, Tennessee, LSU and Auburn, Alabama will have a harder time than usual to return to the SEC Championship Game (something I said last year). However, as we all know, never count out Nick Saban and Alabama just because you want them to lose. They always find a way to break you and always find a way to win a football game.
One team that stands the biggest chance of knocking off Alabama and reaching the SEC Championship Game is the Auburn Tigers. The Gus Malzahn led Tigers are heading for their best season since their 2013 championship game run, leading to Steele's preseason ranking of #9. Leading the offense is the ex-Baylor Beat Jarrett Stidham, who looks to end the dissappointing run at the QB position for Auburn since the Cam Newton days. Auburn's offense (at least for the past two years) has been based around the running game. This is mostly comprised of junior Kamryn Pettway. Pettway had a tremendous 1st Team SEC caliber year last season, one that some did not see coming. During a four-game stretch of last season, Pettway rushed for over 175 yards in each game, becoming the first Auburn player to do that since Bo Jackson. However, Pettway's performance could dwindle this season, especially with the arrival of new OC Chip Lindsey. Lindsey has established an air-raid offense in his past, which could possibly end Auburn's eight-year streak of having a running back rush for over 1000 yards. With seven returning defensive starters, Auburn's defense should be just about the same this year. Even with the 8-5 record last season, Auburn allowed 17.1 PPG last season and should be able to improve on that stat come this season. Like Alabama (and most SEC West teams), Auburn's schedule also stands in their way. Having to go on the road at Clemson, at LSU and at Texas A&M, Auburn's path to the SEC Championship Game could be a rough one. However, if they can get some help from Alabama's opponents, the Iron Bowl could possibly be a matchup of who gets to represent the West in Atlanta.
The LSU Tigers are always considered a threat to run the tables and make the SEC Championship Game, and their chances are little higher this year than in year's past. Coming off the heels of the firing of Les Miles mid-year, LSU finally has a full offseason to accommodate under head coach Ed Orgeron. How LSU will play this year will mostly be based off the way their defense plays this year. If the LSU defense doesn't show any impact, their preseason #13 ranking could disappear in an instant. All the major defensive elements (DL, LB, DB) crack Phil Steele's top 15 rankings, making LSU's defensive to be one of their best we've seen in a couple seasons, even with only five returning starters. Even with an 8-4 record which included losses to Alabama and Florida, LSU's defense only allowed 15.8 PPG, a number that is expected to fall even further this season. Opponents should expect a defensive-minded game, which includes multiple three-and-outs. LSU's offense is a different story... quarterback Danny Etling has not shown too much potential at his time at LSU, that could be primarily due to the strong running game, but could also be due to the weak receiving game LSU has had since Jarvis Landry. The Tigers don't crack Steele's QB or WR rankings (top 55), however, does crack the top 5 in the running game led by Derrius Guide. Guide has no doubtably, humongous shoes to fill off Leonard Fournette's departure for the NFL. Guide will have a top 5 offensive line creating holes for him, which means most of LSU's plays will be on the running side. Ed Orgeron will have LSU rolling for the first time in a couple seasons, which could make for a 9 or 10-win season and a contender in the SEC West.
Texas A&M Aggies- Expectations have been high on Kevin Sumlin's Aggies over the past three seasons, some outlooks have included a championship game appearance and at least a New Year's 6 bowl game out of them, This year, the expectations are lower, a 8-5 record is in the works for the 4th time in four seasons. Texas A&M has not been able to finish strong against SEC West opponents and down the stretch of recent seasons, and have constantly made the lower of the SEC bowl games over the past three years. While the Aggies are stable on both sides of the ball, the one position that is a major question mark is the quarterback position. This year A&M will either go with redshirt freshman Nick Starkel or Jake Hubenak. Their options on the receiving core will be more limited than Trevor Knight's last season, losing 4 of their top 5 receivers from last season, only returning Christian Kirk. A&M is staring down the barrel of another 8-5 season, but if some positions can step up (especially the QBs), and A&M gets some help, there is a possibility of a New Year's 6 game in store for the first time since 2013.
This is a make or break year for Bret Bielema and the Arkansas Razorbacks. Arkansas is going to be one team that is hovering around the .500 mark all year, just like they were last year. Arkansas's offense is not the one holding the Razorbacks back. The offense was actually one of the best in the SEC. Last season Arkansas averaged over 30 points per game this past season and had over 400 yards on average in those games. With six returning starters, Arkansas's numbers should continue to rise this season. Their defense is their problem. With 9 returning starters last season, Arkansas still allowed 31.1 PPG and 427 YPG, one of the worst in the conference. This year with 6 returning starters, that number could rise even further, especially in the matchups against A&M, Alabama, LSU and Auburn. If Arkansas does not break the .500 ark this season, Bret Bielema's seat could get even hotter.
For the first time in a while, supporters of Ole Miss did not have anything to talk about during football last season. A 5-7 Hugh Freeze campaign greatly disappointed so many that entered Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. With nothing much to play for this season (self-imposed bowl ban), Ole Miss could be heading to another disappointing season. A new offensive coordinator could help Ole Miss's QB-receiving production this season, but not as much as some expect. There are winnable non-conference games for Ole Miss this season, but an early loss could demolish the Rebels' spirits and confidence going into the SEC portion of their schedule. With only 11 returning starters (least in SEC), I don't see Ole Miss making a down game, even without the bowl ban. (If you could not tell, I'm not a huge fan of Hugh Freeze or the Ole Miss Rebels).
The only team that could have a more disappointing season than Ole Miss this season is Dan Mullen's Mississippi State Bulldogs. Projected last, once again, in the eyes of the SEC Media, Dan Mullen is looking to out-due those weak expectations. Quarterback Nick Fitzgerald is the leader of the Bulldog offense, but he doesn't have much help. With not much of a running or receiving game and heavy pressure by opposing defenses, Fitzgerald is not able to show the talent he has. Mississippi States' defense is also one of the weakest in the conference. The Bulldogs go into the 2017 campaign with their 4th defensive coordinator in 4 years, and with only 6 returning starters and allowing over 31 PPG in 2016, that number could stay the same this season. With struggles on both sides of the ball, Mississippi State could be looking at a 3 to 5 win season.
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Be on the lookout for more Outside the Huddle previews! Next edition: SEC East
