Patriot Talk: Week 15 Review and Week 16 Prediction
NE@PIT: 10-17 Loss (9-5 Record)
Is this the beginning of the end? After a lackluster start due to weak defense and a lack of offensive weapons, Patriots fans were looking for the usual late season surge, to go into the playoffs with high hopes and momentum. But that has not been met, not even at the slightest. A Steelers team, who was without Le'veon Bell all season, jump started by James Conner at running back and a daunting set of receivers, had missing pieces, and no momentum. They had lost 3 straight games, including the previous week against the Oakland Raiders, and were without James Conner. Yet, the Patriots couldn’t do anything offensively except disappoint. Also, Jason McCourty needs to get off the field, he’s been terrible. Even in my concussed state, it’s easy to see how awful he has been. Now let’s slowly, and painfully, get into it.
Offensively, the Patriots did not play well. Brady went 25 for 36 passing for 279 yards, a TD and an interception. Of Brady’s 11 incompletions, 3 were dropped (Gordon, Edelman, White). Brady went 2 for 7 on deep passes for 97 yards and a TD. Brady also went 4 for 9 for 33 yards while under pressure. He was also sacked once, and that sack was given up by Marcus Cannon. Cannon also gave up a QB hit and 4 hurries. Trent Brown was the only offensive lineman to not give up a single pressure. The rushing game wasn’t terrible this week, as they ran for a combined 96 yards on 19 carries, with Sony Michel picking up 59 yards and a single broken tackle. However, despite the success on the ground, the Pats decided not to run often. There were also two big runs called back due to holding penalties on offensive linemen, with one particular big pick up getting called back due to Trent Brown. As for receiving, Edelman had 7 catches for 90 yards, yet again being our top guy. James White was relevant again it seemed, as he caught 5 passes, but he was only able to pick up 25 yards. Josh Gordon only had one catch for 19 yards. Chris Hogan had the lone TD, on a 63 yard play. Brady made another mental error in the red zone, however this weeks was more costly than last. As he was under pressure, Brady threw a pop up in the general area where Edelman was, hoping it would go out of bounds. Instead, Steelers safety Joe Haden made a great sideline interception. Had the Patriots scored there instead, they would’ve had the 17-14 lead. Also to note, there was a costly penalty on Trent Brown, costing them (I believe) 10 yards, taking them outside the 10 yard line, right before the interception. They yet again left points up on the board this week.
The Patriots defense did good this week, as I had predicted. That is, in coverage, for the most part. Other than that, they were “Bend-don’t-break” all game long, and when they forced a stop, the offense didn’t take advantage. Let’s begin with the atrocious run defense. Over the past 3 weeks, the Patriots have allowed 7.64 yards per carry, the worst yards per carry allowed in franchise history, and 4th worst by any team since the merger, per Zack Cox of NESN.com. Absolutely terrible stat line, and it doesn’t take a genius to see that. The Steelers were without Le’veon Bell and breakout star James Connor against New England, and rookie running back Jaylen Samuels got the call, and he picked up 142 yards on 19 carries. Just throwing this out there: Samuels best COLLEGIATE performance in a single game was 74 yards… As for the pass coverage, all but Jason McCourty played well. J-Mac allowed 5 catches on 7 targets for 98 yards and a TD. Awful. One of my favorite Patriot defenders, JC Jackson, gave up 4 catches on 9 targets for just 48 yards and recorded what was, at the time, a game saving pass breakup. Stephon Gilmore continued to show why he was selected to the Pro Bowl, allowing 5 catches on 7 targets for only 25 yards, while also recording a crucial pass breakup that resulted in a Duron Harmon interception. Harmon had two interceptions, with the other coming on a poor throw targeting Juju Smith-Schuster who was covered by JC Jackson. Pass rush in this game was not very good, and Trey Flowers had, probably, the worst game of the season. Flowers recorded only a QB hit. Dont’a Hightower and Adrian Clayborn were the most successful, each recording three hurries, with Kyle Van Noy and Jonathan Jones recording the only two sacks for the Patriots on the game.
Before I get into my predictions, news broke this week that Josh Gordon has stepped away to focus on his mental health, leaving the Patriots. A few moments later, the NFL came out and said that he had broken the leagues Drug and Alcohol Abuse Policy, and will be suspended indefinitely. Up until the last few weeks, Gordon had been the Patriots top receiver, and this will hurt mightily for the offense. However, I can also see how this can benefit the Patriots moving forward. When he first arrived in New England, all anyone was talking about was how he was given another chance. The media was focused on him, about how he can right the ship in the perfect environment; Bill Belichick’s strict possession. As the season progressed, and he had success, media, other Patriot players, and even coaches, were talking about, and praising, Gordon. Brady was forcing passes to him at times, and it wasn’t always successful, but he kept looking his way. Now, in hindsight, I can see a reason behind that. I can easily be wrong about this, but all that positive attention on Gordon, and the forced passes to Gordon, could be ways to keep him content, to keep his head in the game. His teammates could have been trying to keep the light on him so he can stay focused on the field and off of it. With him now unfortunately gone, I feel the Patriots may be better without him. Patterson hasn’t been bad, Chris Hogan seems to consistently get open, and Phil Dorsett wasn’t bad at all early in the season. Also, there’s no distraction, the focus isn’t hemmed into one single player anymore, it’s now on how the team can get back to their winning ways. Brady doesn’t have to please a receiver anymore, he can spread the ball to anyone on the field. I believe we can be better off without him. It starts with the Bills this Sunday. The Patriots are back at home and the Bills are still the Bills. I think the entire roster will be absolutely fired up, with all the rumors going around that now they can’t win without Gordon.
Prediction- 38-20 Patriots win
