Patriot Talk: Divisional Round Review and AFC Conference Championship Preview
What a game. The Patriots invited the Los Angeles Chargers to Foxboro, MA and absolutely smoked them 41-28. And it wasn’t even as close as the score indicates. Their game plan was perfect, and they executed it as well as they planned. From offense, to defense, to special teams, the Patriots were great. Let’s break down the AFC Divisional round game.
Offensively, the Patriots were toying with the Chargers. In their first drive, they moved the ball down the field through the air, because the running game wasn’t initially working, but Sony Michel was able to finish that drive off with a short run through the LA defense. Because of that TD on the ground to get Michel going and the fact that Brady was firing off laserbeams, the Patriots play-calling was unpredictable. Brady wound up finishing 34 of 44 passing, with 343 yards and a single TD. Of his 10 incompletions, one was dropped, one was batted at the line, and one because he was hit as he threw. He was 1 of 2 on deep passes for 15 yards and a TD to Phillip Dorsett. Brady was 2 for 6 while under pressure for 13 yards. Sony Michel finished the day with 129 yards on 24 carries with 3 TDs. He broke 4 tackles in the process. As for James White, he had a big game catching passes, as I had predicted, receiving 15 catches for 97 yards. Julian Edelman also had a huge day which I wasn’t expecting, as he caught the ball 9 times for 151 yards, and he refused to be tackled on important downs. The Patriots scored on their first three consecutive drives, and the first time they were forced to punt, Derwin James of the Chargers, fumbled it, and the Patriots special teams got their at the very last second to recover it in bounds.
Defensively, it was easier for the Patriots. They were playing with the lead all game, making the Chargers offense one dimensional. With that being said, they still had a tough task of keeping the Chargers high scoring offense off the board, and did that very well. The Patriots were getting pressure on Rivers all day, as they got to him a total of 29 times. Trey Flowers had himself a day, as he had a sack and six hurries. Dont’a Hightower finished off with seven hurries, while Adam Butler had a QB hit and 4 hurries. Adrian Clayborn, who was a healthy scratch in weeks 16 and 17, had the other Patriots sack, as well as a QB hit and two hurries. John Simon finished with four hurries, Kyle Van Noy finished with three and Lawrence Guy, Malcom Brown, Derek Rivers, and Jonathan Jones each finished with one hurry. Patrick Chung rounded pressures out with one QB hit. In coverage, Jason McCourty struggled, allowing 6 catches on 8 targets for 127 yards and one pass breakup. Rookie cornerback JC Jackson was tested all game and passed, as he allowed only 5 catches on 11 targets for 67 yards and registered 2 pass breakups. Stephon Gilmore allowed just one catch on 5 targets, which wound up being a 43 yard TD, but he also had an interception and a pass breakup on the 4 other targets. Dont’a Hightower gave up the only other passing TD, giving up 3 catches on 3 targets for 16 yards. Against the run, the Patriots were solid. Again, because of them playing with a lead, the Chargers only rushed 10 times. But on those 10, the Chargers only averaged 1.9 yards, which is awful, especially considering they have Melvin Gordon, who’s one of the best running backs in the league. John Simon and Kyle Van Noy each registered two run stuffs, while Devin McCourty, Elandon Roberts and Danny Shelton each had one run stuff.
For the eighth consecutive season, the Patriots are going to the AFC Conference Championship game. In that game, they face the Kansas City Chiefs in Kansas City. My main concerns in this game is the fact that it is on the road, and it’s against the toughest crowd to play against. However, the Patriots beat them 43-40 in week 6; even though it was in Foxboro, it’s monumental to know that they have beaten this team. Many things have changed since then, however. For one, JC Jackson was inactive at that point in time, whereas now he has emerged as the number two option at cornerback and a vital part of the defense. To dive further, the Patriots utilize man coverage more often than any other NFL team. Pat Mahomes, the soon-to-be league MVP of the 2018-19 season, was one of Pro-Football-Focus’ highest rated QB against man coverage. However, the first time around, the Patriots limited him to 11 completions on 22 attempts for 91 yards, two TDs and two INTs; they also kept the offense out of the endzone in the first half of week 6. Take that and add JC Jackson in mix, we could see those numbers improve defensively for New England. The matchups are going to be different, maybe, as Stephon Gilmore was on Sammy Watkins in week 6 (and neutralized him) but could see Tyreek Hill this time around. But JC Jackson has the speed to at least stay with Hill, with safety help, along with his ability to shut down big plays (only allowed 2 catches of 20+ yards all season), and the fact that he hasn’t given up a single TD in coverage all season. We all know Gilmore can shut down Watkins again, so Jackson being tested by Hill makes sense to me. Then you have the Travis Kelce factor, but Dont’a Hightower has been, when necessary, good in coverage against TEs, as well as Patrick Chung. Looking back at week 6, they frustrated Kelce, and picked off Mahomes when he forced a pass to him, due to one simple play at the line; they jammed him. At various times, they’d throw Trey Flowers, Kyle Van Noy and Hightower in front of Kelce and jam him, then go in for a pass rush. It slows Kelce’s route down and helps whoever is in coverage, and the delay in the pass rush disrupts the offensively line. It worked against the Chiefs and it should definitely be seen again. The Chiefs defense on the other hand, are not very good. They’re bad against the pass, as their secondary has seen their fair share of injuries, and their run defense is one of the worst in the league. Sony Michel is coming off his best game of his rookie season against a tough Chargers defense (151 yards, 3 TDs), and he had a big game in week 6 against the Chiefs as well (106 yards, 2 TDs). James White had a big game last week as well in the pass game (15 catches, 97 yards), and he, too, had a great game against the Chiefs in week 6 (5 catches, 53 yards), and with Josh Gordon now gone, he should get more looks against the Chiefs in the pass game. The reason I bring up the top 2 running backs on the Patriots is because the Chiefs are awful against an offensive scheme called “21 personnel” (2 running back set, with 1 TE), and the Pats run that often with those two, or a variation of Burkhead and Devlin being mixed in with White/Michel. The Patriots offense could cause a whole lot of havoc. But again, the Patriots have struggled mightily on the road, and there’s no telling what Patriot team we will see this weekend.
Prediction: 38-27 Patriots win
