Penn State's Non-Conference Blunder May Loom Large In Division Chase

Penn State's Grant Haley celebrates after scoring the decisive touchdown against the former No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes

Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

?If last week you thought we'd be including the Penn State Nittany Lions in any sort of championship talk, you would certainly be in the vast minority. A Saturday matchup with No. 2 Ohio State was expected to be a laugher with the Buckeyes entering as 19.5 point favorites.

Penn State came out strong both offensively and defensively but a few early miscues put the Bucks in a position to take an early 12-0 lead. The Nittany Lions refused to go away, though as quarterback Trace McSorley orchestrated a late first-half drive which ended with a touchdown pass to Chris Godwin to cut the deficit to just five.


Hope began to fade in the third quarter as Ohio State's Curtis Samuel broke a long touchdown run that was followed shortly after by another Nittany Lions' special teams gaffe, resulting in a safety and a 21-7 Buckeye lead.


Despite the young, embattled Lions facing the biggest uphill battle of their season, they managed to dominate the fourth quarter. A few big plays resulted in McSorley scoring on a scramble to the pylon and a few minutes later, Tyler Davis added a field goal to cut the deficit to just three. The Bucks moved the ball into field goal range on their ensuing drive and the rest, as they say, is history.

Penn State followed by stopping Ohio State on downs with consecutive sacks of J.T. Barrett and sealed the upset that boosts them back into Big Ten title conversation.

It's still an uphill battle for James Franklin and the Nittany Lions, who currently boast a 5-2 overall record, 3-1 in the Big Ten. Unfortunately for Penn State, Michigan will need to lose twice if there's any shot at a berth in the conference title game.

The Wolverines put on a clinic in Ann Arbor last month, beating Penn State in a 49-10 final. Michigan remains unbeaten, meaning even if Ohio State manages to beat them in the season finale, they'll still own the head-to-head advantage over the Nittany Lions. Penn State will control their own destiny in regards to a tiebreak situation over the Bucks but they'll need a little help to overtake Michigan.

Looking at the situation in a little more depth, Penn State could be buried by an unconventional tiebreaker. Non-conference games ordinarily have no impact on conference standing, though if Penn State, Ohio State and Michigan finish in a three-way tie, the Lions' Week 2 loss to Pittsburgh would likely keep them out of the title game.

How would a non-conference loss impact a team's standing in the conference? Well, it seems there are only so many in-conference tiebreakers.

The Big Ten Conference Football Divisional Tiebreaker states, "If three or more teams are tied, steps 1 through 6 will be followed until a determination is made." They are as follows:

1. The records of the three tied teams will be compared against each other.

2. The records of the three tied teams will be compared within their division.
3. The records of the three teams will be compared against the next highest placed teams in their division in order of finish (4, 5, 6, and 7).
4. The records of the three teams will be compared against all common conference opponents.
5. The team with the best overall winning percentage [excluding exempted games] shall be the representative.
6. The representative will be chosen by random draw.

If you're having trouble following, it means that should both Penn State and Ohio State win out with Michigan losing only to Ohio State in the finale, there will be a three-way tie. Steps 1-4 would not be applicable because each team's lone conference loss would be to one of the others involved. Penn State will have lost to Michigan, who lost to Ohio State, who lost to Penn State. Their records against other divisional opponents and common conference opponents would be identical.

In that event, it would fall to overall win percentage, which would eliminate the Nittany Lions due to their loss to Pitt early in the season. Ohio State would then represent the division because of their head-to-head win over Michigan.

Penn State is clearly hoping it doesn't come down to that because they would be the odd man out. Their only hope for a shot a conference title would be winning the remainder of their games plus two losses by the Wolverines.

The remaining schedule for Michigan is as follows:

And Penn State:

It's unlikely Michigan loses any of the next four as they play opponents with a combined record of 6-11 in conference games, though their upcoming rivalry game against Michigan State shouldn't be considered a cakewalk. The Spartans shocked the Wolverines last season and though they're in the midst of a horrid season, Mark Dantonio has proved he's one of the best coaches in the country and can make any game difficult for any opponent.

All that said, Penn State fans finally have cause for optimism after their unlikely upset of Ohio State and they'll continue to hold onto hope until they're officially eliminated, as they should.