2016 NY Mets Playoffs: World Series Probabilities

By C Chin
Oct. 05, 2016

Last year, we published a popular and ongoing article during the New York Mets' 2015 playoff run -- on the odds that the Mets would win the 2015 World Series.  We'll do the same this year -- and start with the wild card game against the San Francisco Giants.  

Why the Giants will Win the Wild Card Game

MadBum (Madison Bumgarner) has been unbeatable in the post-season.  He owns a 0.60 ERA in seven games for the SF Giants, with the Giants winning every single game he has started. MadBum has also done well against the Mets during his career.  

Why the Mets will Win the Wild Card

Although MadBum is one of the best in the game, the long-ball has been one of his weaknesses this year.  He yielded 26 HRs -- and homeruns happen to be one of the Mets' strengths.  Of course, during short baseball playoff series, the consistency of batting average is preferred over the long-ball -- as we saw in our New York Times articles.  

The Mets ended the season as one of the hottest teams in all of baseball.  On the other hand, the Giants played .417 ball the second half of the season and did not play .500 in any month to end the season (July = .458, August = .407, September = .464).  

While many people are touting MadBum, Noah Syndergaard (Thor) is no slouch. After a seemingly up and down year, Thor finished his second major league season (he turned just 24 in August!) with an ERA of 2.60.  Thor averaged almost 11 K's per nine innings during the regular season and averaged more than 12 K's in three post-season starts last year. 

So What are the Odds that the Mets Win the World Series? 

I currently favor the Mets slightly in the Wild Card game, and have the Mets' odds of winning the World Series at 4%.  

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Carlton Chin, CFA, is a fund manager, MIT-trained quantitative analyst, and co-author of “Who Will Win the Big Game?" He has been quoted by the Wall St. Journal, New York Times, and ESPN -- and worked with the Sacramento Kings on the Draft 3.0 Analytics Advisory Council.  He has been a lifelong Mets fan since attending his first ballgame as a six-year-old.