Scouting Report & Grades: Quarterbacks

Next up in my scouting and grading series is quarterbacks.  Being one of the hardest and most intricate positions in all of sports, scouting this position can be very tough. When looking for a QB, I have about 3 really important traits I want in a QB.  Decision making, Accuracy and arm strength, with pocket presence being right behind arm strength.  The first three are the hardest to coach and that's why they are my top three traits.  You don't become much of a better decision maker in the NFL, you definitely don't become more accurate, and your arm strength is what it is.  Where pocket presence and movement can be coached, the best are still natural moving in the pocket straight out of college.  Based on these traits I hope you understand my grades on each QB.  Keep in mind when you look at the best QBs  in the NFL and QBs who have flamed out, look at where they are strong and where they are weak.  I did not like Manziel coming out of college what so ever because I saw nothing that resembled the ability to play within an NFL offense.  He didn't have my top 4 traits, and he flamed out hard.  Bortles is experiencing trouble with decision making and accuracy, and Winston is still struggling a bit with decision making. The Bradys, Brees and Rodgers of the world are killing defenses from the pocket with consistent accuracy and knowing NOT where to go before the snap.  Really look for these things when scouting.

Mitch Trubisky 6'2'' 1/2 220 lbs North Carolina

The Good - Best mechanics in this class. Consistently accurate to every level of the field. Good arm strength.  Great ball placement and timing.  Football IQ off the charts.  Athletic and has underrated pocket poise and escapability.  Picked apart good defenses, great placement based on type of throw needed. Day 1 starter, top 5 pick.

The Bad - One year starter, though I don't care much, if you can ball, then you can ball.  How much of a leader is he? Want to know more about his character.  Can throw off his back foot against the blitz at times and needs to follow through throws going downfield a bit more. All very coachable.

Overall Top 5 - If Trubisky was a 2 or 3 year starter he would've been QB1 in last years class to me.  I don't care about the one year starter because I don't believe he wasn't a starter based on skill. Sometimes there's  a QB in front that the team is comfy with and respect him enough to let him finish his career as a starter.  Nick Foles sat behind someone, Russell Wilson did, Mike Glennon did and so did Carson Wentz. That being said, Trubisky has every trait a number one overall QB has except for being a multi year starter.  

Deshaun Watson 6'2'' 210 lbs Clemson

The Good - Watson is a natural leader. Great championship performances against top notch defenses.  Placement downfield can be beautiful at times. Tough, instinctive and very athletic.  Good arm strength for all throws.  High football IQ and character.

The Bad - Very inconsistent as a true QB. Pocket presence and mental clock need work.  Not consistently accurate to any level of the field.  Gets stuck on first read. Leg mechanics need work, and can look robotic throwing.  Smaller frame a worry.  Lots of interceptions lead to a strong field vision problem for me. Lots of batted passes at the line confirm he gets stuck on reads and mechanics need work.

Overall 2nd - This is where I have him based solely on talent level as a QB. Ultimately there's no doubt to me he goes in the first. He has some incredible qualities but at the end of the day he's a poor mans Winston throwing wise, while being a much better athlete. But I believe his work ethic can help him take to coaching and become a better player in the pros than college. His accuracy scares me as well, as it just doesn't get better as you get into the pros.  Sometimes footwork problems being fixed can help a bit, and a great example of this is Derek Carr. He became a much improved downfield thrower in the pros than he was in college.

Deshone Kizer 6'3'' 230 lbs Notre Dame

The Good - Ideal NFL size.  Elite arm strength. Flashes elite ball placement and accuracy to every level of the field. Can beat the blitz nicely. Good athlete, and tough.  Great on rollouts.

The Bad - Mechanics in the lower half need a lot of work.  Accuracy not consistent at all.  Got benched on a bad ND team.  Needs work on pocket movement and awareness, he can bring his eyes down to the rush from time to time. Will throw off back foot against blitz.  Needs to become a better decision maker.

Overall 2nd - Kizer has the elite physical tools, but I question if he has elite qualities above the shoulders.  On top of his mechanics needing work, there shouldn't be a team who picks him in the first, but I liked Paxton Lynch as a 3rd rounder last year and he was taken in the first.  Look for a team in the back of the first round with a vet QB to sit Kizer at minimum one year.  Good fits would be the Saints, Cardinals and Steelers. Really a poor mans Donovan McNabb.

Davis Webb 6'5'' 225 lbs Cal

The Good - A true statue of a quarterback.  Arm strength underrated.  Can make all the throws. High character and IQ.

The Bad - Webb is a QB where I don't understand any of the hype. Through three games of tape I saw 5-7 NFL throws.  Mechanics need work, they really hinder his accuracy and arm strength. He throws like Cutler without the natural arm strength. Screen HEAVY system. Like 20 screens a game heavy.  Misses some easy routine throws, that should just never be missed.  Automatic nature with throws looked damn ugly (Oregon tape).  Needs to learn how to play QB in a traditional setting.  Big project.

Overall - 4th/5th - I'm not changing my stance at all on Webb until I see evidence that he can play QB in  the NFL with any success. He didn't show me it at Cal and all you're really drafting is a guy with prototypical size whose made a handful of NFL throws.  He does have good character and apparently high football IQ, but for now this is where I have him talent wise.  One thing too, if a QB is good enough to not run a certain offense, then why wouldn't the offense be catered to his skill level? Goff ran the same offense for three years and it looked totally different. With Webb it is dumbed down completely. 

Brad Kaaya 6'4'' 210 lbs Miami

The Good - Quick mechanics.  Natural leader and he's tough.  Better arm than credited for, maybe a tad better than Cousins.  Good touch and placement to intermediate parts of the field. Throws with good timing and anticipation.  Trusts his receivers.  High IQ and character.  Played tough behind terrible offensive line in 2016.  Led some nice clutch drives. Decent pocket presence, but keeps his eyes downfield nicely even with a blitzer in his face.

The Bad - Downfield accuracy is inconsistent. His mechanics are pretty bad.  Strictly a rhythm passer day 1.  Throws off hitch on every pass, if not everything goes wonky for him. His arm is okay, but still limited. This is obvious on deeper out breaking routes and in general he lacks zip throwing outside.  (ND game he throws a terrible pick sick on a 7 yard out).  

Overall 2nd- early 3rd - I think Kaaya is an all around solid QB.  I believe he has the ability and same chance of Trubisky to become a good QB in the NFL compared to Kizer and Watson. Where that usually means round 1 or 2 if you're getting a solid QB, would you really want Kirk Cousins as a round 1 QB? With Kaaya your offense will always have limitations to it. You will need a good running game and great YAC receivers. He won't take your offense a step further, but he will run it nicely.  And that is what Kirk Cousins does, but I don't think Kaaya will even be as good as Cousins.  I liked Cousins in round 2 when he came out even though he fell to the 4th round, and again that's probably because at the end of the day, even his ceiling as a player is still a limited player.

Nathan Peterman 6'2'' 225 lbs Pittsburgh

The Good - Solid arm strength, better than Kaaya.  Runs a pro offense.  Accuracy only 60%, but a lot of that is due to lackluster talent around him.  Generally a solid decision maker. Accurate in short and intermediate game.  Inconsistent downfield.  Solid mechanics, and tough. Solid athlete, never had a multi int game in 2016.  Tore Clemson apart with 5td passes.  Stands tall in the pocket, and his oline on the right side was quite suspect.

The Bad - Throwing motion gets elongated on downfield throws. Mechanics for downfield throws needs work in general.  Has arm strength for it nonetheless.  Can make absolutely head scratching decisions.  Will make all the right reads and then throw into triple coverage, but gets bailed out by defenders dropping a lot of picks.  Didn't make  ton of NFL throws consistently.  Accuracy can fall off a cliff out of nowhere for a quarter.  Almost 4 sub 50% completion games.  Blitz recognition could use work.

Overall 2nd - Peterman's accuracy is better than the final stat sheet of his 2016 season, see dropped passes and the amount of pressure his oline allows, and underneath this inconsistent play is a very solid QB in all aspects.  He can be a good decision maker, has the arm strength needed and is pretty accurate.  He needs to work on his consistency, but I think his ceiling is a bit higher than Kirk Cousins, so maybe Andy Dalton. He knows how to play under center and has solid mechanics. Possible day 1 starter as a game manager but don't be suprised if he has a solid rookie season on a decent team.  

Patrick Mahomes 6'3'' 230 lbs Texas Tech

The Good - Elite arm talent.  Prototype size.  Throws well on the run.   Great Td:Int ratio.  Didn't turn the ball over a lot.  10 ints with 591 pass attempts. Thats 59 passes in between each pick. Good potential if you love big arms.

The Bad - Comes out of an offense no where near resembling an NFL offense.  Will have to sit at least two years.  Shows next to nothing in terms of NFL capability other than arm strength and throwing out of the pocket. Otherwise his pocket presence is minimal, his progressions are minimal. He takes a while to get rid of the ball. His mechanics are truly messed up, and should easily have some more interceptions.  True project QB. I don't understand the hype.  There have been quite a few big arm QBs in past drafts but get selected in the mid rounds, and Mahomes doesn't separate himself from that label.

Overall 4th/5th - I like Mahomes arm, but he doesn't apply to any of the other top traits I want in a quarterback except decision making. Even then it's because he holds the ball for so long. I want QUICK good decision makers.  I would be scared as hell to spend a 1st, 2nd or 3rd on Mahomes. He needs minimum two years before he can step on the field. I don't understand Matt Millers love for the guy, with all due respect to Matt Miller,even then, Mahomes is a huge projection to the NFL.

The other guys

Joshua Dobbs 6'3 210 lbs Tennessee - Dual threat QB, big project.  Decent physical tools. Switch to tightend possible. 7th round-Undrafted

Brady Gustafson 6'7'' 230 Montana - Size, arm prospect. Very raw. 6th-undrafted.

Gunner Keil 6'4'' 210 lbs Cincinnati - Great arm, decent accuracy in short game. Who is he character wise? 7th-undrafted.

Patrick Towles 6'5'' 250 lbs BC - Big Ben lite.  Good arm, and athletic.  Mechanic issues, and pocket issues to fix.  Decent accuracy.  Would have looked better on a better team. 4th-5th round.

Mitch Leidner 6'4'' 240 lbs Minnesota - Size, arm prospect. Project QB. 6th-7th rounder.

CJ Beathard 6'2'' 215 lbs Iowa - Average QB in all aspects or below average.  Camp body/developmental 3rd string. Undrafted.