Why Michigan will Win the National Title
Now before I get this piece going and before everyone starts piling on with "see, Michigan starts winning and their fans come back out of hiding", I need to drop a little disclaimer here. I grew up in Georgia, transplanted to Denver, root religiously for Colorado, am a closet Ohio State fan, hate Michigan, and frankly cannot stand Harbaugh. We are taking Clemson and Washington out of the equation and assuming that both Michigan and Alabama run the table, win their conference title games, Alabama beats Washington in Atlanta, Michigan beats Clemson in Glendale.
So, lets move on, shall we?
Michigan is going to win the National Championship. Period. Alabama people....I just made them lose their minds. So how is this going to happen you ask? I will be more than glad to share.
1. Schedule Before January 9
When you look at the schedules remaining, Michigan has a much easier time hands down. Of the games left for Michigan, they go to a bad Michigan State team, vs. Maryland, @Iowa which is underachieving, vs. Indiana, then the big one @Ohio State. This year, and after last Saturday night, looks like a year where Ohio State is just too young for this one. Then they will get either Wisconsin (a team they have already beat) or Nebraska in Indianapolis. No reason they should not beat either. When you look at the body of games, Michigan has a chance to stay very healthy and can get into the playoffs fresh. Alabama on the flip side has to go to LSU (never easy especially at night), Mississippi State at home, an embarrassment in scheduling Chattanooga, then Auburn for the Iron Bowl in Tuscaloosa, and make no mistake, Auburn is playing better and weird things happen in that game. So after Auburn, Alabama will probably get Florida in Atlanta. The difference is the semi-final game. Alabama will play a very physical, hit you in the face team in Washington. Michigan gets a finesse team in Clemson. Put all of that together and Michigan has a better chance of being the more healthy team on January 9....and yes....I know Alabama gets a week off before Auburn by scheduling Chattanooga.
Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
2. Alabama Offensive Philosophy vs. Michigan Defense
Alabama has become very much a West Coast Offensive style of team. They want to get the ball to their athletes in space and allow them to make plays. Lane Kiffin has done a great job in bringing Jalen Hurts along as a freshman and there is no doubt that Alabama can score 40+ on any given Saturday. When you look at the base for the West Coast O, the running backs have to attack between the Guards and Tackles. What this does in turn is open up the space from the hash marks to the sidelines for the receivers and tight ends due to the linebackers having to play inside. The only team that matches Alabama man for man, is Michigan. A problem that Alabama will have in that game is that they are not going to be able to ever establish a running game. This game will then become very similar to the Ohio State game in 2014 where Ohio State held Alabama in check running the ball, leaving Alabama having to throw to score. When this happens, the Michigan defense, which I think is better than the OSU 2014 defense that Alabama saw, will be able to tee off on Alabama and will cause Alabama major issues. Michigan loves to play a lot of man to man coverage and turn guys loose inside. That will be the big difference in the game.
Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
3. Coaching
How in the world can I even put coaching as a category? People in Alabama....they are for sure losing their minds now. But hear me out. There is no doubt...none....that Nick Saban is the benchmark of college coaches. He is the pedigree when it comes to what other coaches want to be like. Most coaches, and even myself who coached high school and college football for 17 years, has a tendency to be a little....intimidated...when coaching against someone that is considered an icon. It happens. Jim Harbaugh is not one of those guys. He will not come into this game intimidated, he will bring his team in with a chip on it s shoulder, and he will have them ready. Am I saying that Coach Saban will not? Not at all! All I am saying is that in a big game on a big stage, where some other teams might realize who they are playing and who the coach is of the other team, after playing Ohio State and Urban Meyer...in Columbus...and having Jim Harbaugh as a head coach...a guy that is cocky, brash, no nonsense....Michigan will see themselves as equal. They will think they are as good as, if not better, than Alabama. The intimidation factor is a zero.
Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
4. The SEC is just BAD this year!
Take Alabama out of the SEC. Have you done that? Good. Here is what you are left with: In the East you have a Tennessee team that won 3 game in miracle fashion and got dismantled by Alabama, a Florida team that no one knows anything about, a Georgia team that apparently is "rebuilding" after Kirby Smart inherited a 10-3 team that had their whole offensive core back, South Carolina is a mess, and Vandy...well...they are Vandy. In the West...LSU changed coaches and is playing better, Auburn finally found a quarterback, A&M cannot stop a nosebleed, Arkansas, as proven last Saturday is not that good, and both Mississippi schools stink. When you compare that to the Big 10....Michigan and Nebraska are unbeaten, Wisconsin beat LSU and only lost to Ohio State in OT and Michigan by 6, Ohio State is a blocked field goal from being #2 still in the country, Northwestern, Penn State, and Iowa could beat anyone in the SEC East right now, Maryland is better, Minnesota is a solid 5-2. When you play tougher competition, it shows later in the year. Another reason I think Michigan is better prepared to win against Alabama.
Final Breakdown
Michigan could go to East Lansing this weekend, lay an egg, and all this is nothing more than words on a page. Alabama could do the same at LSU in 2 weeks where dreams seem to die at night for teams. I do not think those will happen. Both of these teams are winning games that both of their fans bases go "wow" after. I simply think...in my total opinion...that Michigan will be the more healthy team. Michigan will be a match-up nightmare for Alabama. Michigan will not be intimidated by Alabama.
Michigan 31 Alabama 27 in a classic.
