NBA Draft 2016; Boom or Bust (Historical Analysis)
The NBA draft is suppose to allow bad teams to become good. Has history proven that? From 2004 to 2013 (10 year draft history), 46% of the top 3 picks have been busts or role players at best. That's basically a 50-50 shot to get a good to great player vs a bust to average player. The reason i stop at 2013 is because for 2014 and 2015 we do not have a good feel on how players have developed, however for 2013 and prior there is already an established projection for them.
Now this isn't saying Simmons will be a bust. But history shows Lebron James is more rare than Greg Oden.
So what does that mean. In the last 10 years, picking in the top 3 picks is essentially a coin flip if they will be All Stars or better or something less than an all star. Picking a top 10 pick is a coin flip to get a bust/role player at best.
Ben Simmons is often considered a sure thing. His "college" stats are amazing! 19.2 ppg, 11.8 rpg, and 4.8 apg. You know who else had awesome stats in college? Michael Beasley at K-State averaged 26.2 ppg, 12.4 rpg, 1.2 apg, 1.3 spg, and 1.6 bpg. At least Beasley took Kansas St. to the NCAA Tournament. College stats don't always translate to the NBA. The "BUSTs' listed above had the following college stats (then followed by some NBA HOF college stats)...
Below is a typical 2016 NBA Draft board projection and the NBA player they compare to
NBA GM's would love that kind of guarantee, but a majority of the top 10 picks will never be an All Star caliber NBA Player.
Good luck 76ers, Lakers, Suns, Nets, etc.
Below is some additional draft analysis for 1984-2013 drafts ( 2014-2016 is too fresh to really know the impact players will have). Trends have changed over the year with draft prospects evolving from 3-4 year college stars, to prep to pros, to 1 and done based on mostly potential. You'll notice the "Bust" probability goes down from recent history to further out in the past, while the opposite is true for HOF probability. This is in direct correlation to the amount of underclassmen in more recent drafts.
