Oct. 07, 2016
Boise State vs. New Mexico Official Betting Preview, Vegas Odds
Boise State vs. New Mexico culminates the weeknight action in which has seen all three sharp bets Arkansas State, Temple, and Arizona Cardinals cover. Boise State is a 19-point road favorite with a total of 61 after opening at 17.5 and 60. The game is nationally televised at 9 PM EST on CBS Sports Network.
Though the public is notorious for an infatuation with road favorites, only 55 percent of tickets offshore and in Vegas have been on Boise State. Bob Warner of Lines-Maker.com points out, “Joey Bagofdonuts especially prefers small road favorites,” so the mild majority is a surprise, but no shock.
More in line with the norm, 79 percent of totals bets are on the over. Boise State is 4-0 SU, but just 1-3 ATS, going under all four. New Mexico is also 1-3 to the number including three straight setbacks, going over all four. Their games have gone over by an average of 16.2 points per game, which ties them for fourth in the nation. Conversely, Boise has gone under by an average of -13.1, which makes them the third strongest under team based on the margin of cover stat.
Boise State gets 4.8 yards per rush to teams allowing an average of 3.8, 9.0 yards per pass to 7.5 and 6.8 yards per play to 5.5. Conversely they allow 2.4 yards per rush on defense teams normally accumulating 4.4, 6.1 yards per pass to 6.5 and 4.6 yards per play to 5.4.
Using the same metrics, New Mexico is below average on each side of the ball, particularly on offense yards per pass where they get just 7.0 to 8.4.
Spread betting trends (all records are ATS): Boise State 32-15 after allowing more than 280 passing yards last game. New Mexico 3-9 off win. New Mexico has covered five straight series meetings.
Totals angles: New Mexico has gone over six straight.
Strongest bet on the game The Great One, Stevie Vincent is 72-29 with named plays. Get first named play since Sunday. It is the CBSSN OU of the Decade in Collegiate Football plus pro baseball OU as well. Vincent is unanimously accepted as the top over/under handicapper in history (all sports) at OffshoreInsiders.com