Nov. 08, 2016
Western Michigan vs. Kent St. Official Sports Handicapping Preview
Western Michigan vs. Kent rounds out Tuesday night football spread picks. WMU is laying 21 to 22 points, so shop around for the best lines. The total is 55, though limited 54.5s can be had. The side is up from an opener of -18, the total down from 57. A stunning 89 percent of ATS bets are on Western Michigan, with the normal 72 majority betting the over.
Western Michigan is 9-0 SU, 7-2 ATS including a perfect 5-0 in both categories on the highway. Though WMU has gone over 5-4 overall, their road games have gone under 4-of-5. Kent is a dichotomous straight up and against the spread team. Though 3-6 in the newspaper standings, they are 6-3 according to Las Vegas and offshore point spreads, including 1-3 and 3-1 on the road respectively.
Western Michigan is splendid on offense, getting 5.3 yards per rushing attempt to squads generally permitting just 4.6, a monstrous 9.7 passing yards per attempt to 7.6 and 7.0 yards per point to 5.9. On defense, they allow teams to exceed their normal average by .1 yards per rush and yards per pass, and .2 yards per play.
Using the above metrics, Kent State is perfectly average running the ball, but horrible in the air, getting just 5.7 to 6.9 and 4.7 yards per play to 5.3. However, Kent is rock-solid on defense holding team that normally average 4.2 yards per rush to just 3.9 and squads to .6 yards per pass below what they normally achieve. That comes out to allowing 5.0 yards per play teams normally accumulating 5.4.
Spread betting trends (all records are ATS): Western Michigan is 23-8 fieldturf and 24-9 overall. Kent State is 3-7 in conference play. Incredibly, the favorite is on a 10-0 run. Totals angles: Kent under 6-0 off win. Western over 9-1 after getting more than 450 total yards last game.
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