How to defeat the Dominican Republic

Baseball may be America’s pastime, but the Dominican Republic is king in the World Baseball Classic. The Dominican Republic had not lost a World Baseball Classic game since 2009 until losing to Puerto Rico Tuesday night. The Dominican Republic entered this tournament as favorites. So far, expectations have been met with the Dominicans winning three of their dour games so far. Can they continue to be stopped?

The remaining teams in the World Baseball Classic are Israel, Netherlands, Japan, Cuba, Dominican Republic, United States, Puerto Rico and Venezuela. One issue with the World Baseball Classic is it is very top-heavy. There are very few teams with any real hope of winning.

Unfortunately for the Dominican Republic, the two teams with any real hope are both moving on to the next round. Those two teams are the United States and Venezuela. It’s no coincidence that the three best teams come from the three countries where baseball is the most popular. However, Puerto Rico pulled off the huge upset Tuesday night and now may be dark houses to advance despite its roster being less talented than the rest of the teams in its pool.

The Dominican Republic’s roster is as complete as any. Virtually every top Dominican major league player is on their roster. The offensive capabilities on the Dominican roster is unmatched. The power of players like Manny Machado, Robinson Cano, Jose Bautista, Nelson Cruz, Adrian Beltre and Carlos Santana are unmatched. They also have star studded depth at all positions.

Offensively, the Venezuelan roster is very balanced. The Dominican Republic has by far the most powerful lineup in the whole tournament, but lack speed and don’t hit for as well of an average. The heart of the Venezuelan roster is one of the best with Miguel Cabrera, Víctor Martínez and Carlos Gonzalez. Those players bring the power and decent averages. Then the players around them such as Martin Prado, Rougned Odor and Ender Inciarte bring high average and speed on the base paths.

The weakness the Venezuelans have is its pitching depth. They have probably the best starting pitcher in the tournament in Felix Hernandez. After him it’s pretty dull and it's shown. In two of Venezuelans four games, they have allowed 10 or more runs. The offense kept pace in both games scoring 11 and nine runs. This is the fatal flaw for Venezuela. It’s offense can keep up with the best, but its pitching cannot.

The Dominican Republic does not have the star starting pitcher like Felix Hernandez, but are very deep with quality pitchers. At starting pitcher the Dominican Republic has guys like Carlos Martinez, Edinson Volquez and Ervin Santana, all of whom are all capable major league pitchers. In the bullpen the Dominican Republic has some very strong arms in Dellin Betances, Jumbo Diaz, Jeurys Familia, and Fernando Rodney.

The team that will have the best chance at taking down the Dominicans is the United States. This years United States roster is the best and most hungry it's been since the foundation of the World Baseball Classic. Manager Jim Leyland has helped instill the importance of this tournament in his players. The roster is also the best it's been in years. There are still some of the best American players not participating such as Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, Clayton Kershaw, and Mookie Betts, but despite that have a very strong roster.

There are advantages the United States has over the Dominican Republic. For one, the United States has better starting pitching. Marcus Stroman, Chris Archer, and Danny Duffy edge out the Dominican rotation of Martinez, Volquez, and Santana. The United States late inning bullpen is also as good, if not better, than the Dominican Republic with Andrew Miller and David Robertson, but lack some of the depth that the Dominican Republic has. The drop off isn’t as significant as the Venezuelan team, but the bullpen overall isn’t as strong as the Dominicans.

Offensively, the United States is similar to Venezuela in that it’s very balanced. The United States has plenty of power with Giancarlo Stanton, Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, and Daniel Murphy. As a whole, the team hits for average and is decent on the basepaths. The United States may not hit as many home runs as the Dominican Republic, but can score just as well. At catcher, Team USA is very strong with Buster Posey and Jonathan Lucroy. Both are great defensive catchers with elite pitch framing skills. This will help make up some of the lack of bullpen depth later in games.

The United States does not have a fatal flaw like Venezuela. Sure, the bullpen depth could be better, but that’s not something that the United States cannot overcome. If everything goes right, Team USA can prevent the Dominican Republic from winning it all.

Tuesday’s game between the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico shows how good the Dominicans are. The Dominicans lost 3-1, despite everything going in Puerto Rico’s favor. The Puerto Rican team was able to use its best pitchers in the game. They also benefited from an error which allowed a run to score. Then with bases and a chance to open up the game, the Puerto Ricans got out of the inning by an amazing throw to the plate from right field to tag out Jean Segura. One strategy the Puerto Ricans used was playing strikeout and groundball pitchers. This limited the amount of times the Dominicans could take advantage of its power hitting. This is something other teams such as the United States can use to defeat the Dominican Republic.

In fact, my prediction is the United States wins the 2017 World Baseball Classic. Not only has the United States not won a World Baseball Classic yet, but it has yet to reach the championship game. That ends this time.