Three Popular Statistics That Shouldn't Be Used
Statistics are a great way to connect sports fans with the games that they love. It gives fans something to discuss and debate. It is also a great way of telling fans how well a player is performing. However, not all stats are created equal and even some of the most popular statistics do a poor job. Here are some of those statistics and the flaws with them.
Points Per Game
Points per game is one of the most widely used stats in all of sports. Every major sport uses this stat in some extent to compare teams. The statistic isn’t as bad in some sports as it is in others. It’s okay in a sport like football, but basketball is the sport that the flaws are even more pronounced.
On the surface, points per game seems to be good for comparing teams. Typically teams that score more than others or allow less points than others will be the better team. This doesn’t consider pacing which is a major part of basketball. Some teams on offense will play faster than others. Instead of taking time, some teams will execute their offense within five seconds of crossing half court and others may not shoot before there’s only 10 seconds left on the shot clock. Games with faster pacing will include more possessions for more opportunities to score.
Just because a team scores a lot does not mean it is efficient. Think of a basketball player that shoots 15 of 45 for 30 points. Most people would say scoring 30 points is a good game, but it took the player 45 shots to do it. Compare that with a player that shoots 15 of 20, Both players scored 30 points, but one did it much more efficiently as wasted less possessions.
This works for teams as well. Virginia is a great example of this. Virginia plays a very slow pace of basketball. Last season they had one of the best offenses in college basketball, but ranked 209th in points per game, scoring only 71 points per game. Their offensive efficiency ranked eighth last year. This makes it very tough for other teams to win because there are less opportunities for the other team to score and every possession matters.
A much better statistic to use is points per possession. It’s the same idea as points per game, but takes into consideration pacing and shows offensive and defensive efficiency. In the NBA, Golden State, Houston, and Cleveland were the top three teams in points per possession. In points per game they also are the top three teams. In college basketball, UCLA, Gonzaga, and St. Mary’s lead the NCAA in points per possession, but in points per game the top three teams are UCLA, The Citadel, and Central Michigan. Gonzaga is ninth in points per game and St. Mary’s is 215th.
Player Efficiency Rating (PER)
PER is another statistic in basketball that is widely used but flawed. PER is a statistic developed by ESPN’s John Hollinger. His explanation of how PER works: "The PER sums up all a player's positive accomplishments, subtracts the negative accomplishments, and returns a per-minute rating of a player's performance."
It sounds all good when it’s put that way, but there are major problems. The statistic is supposed to calculate the overall skill of a player, both offensively and defensively. Offensively the statistic is okay. However, it is a terrible way to determine defensive capabilities and Hollinger himself even admitted that.
PER uses blocks and steals in its calculations. Blocks and steals are great to have, but those on their own are not good indicators of defense. A player can easily have high blocks and steals, but fail in everything else defensively. Some players may even have high blocks and steals because they are a bad defensive player, because the player may give up on his defensive assignment, leaving someone wide open.
Earned Run Average
The sport of baseball is a statistician's dream given how many things are tracked. There are countless different statistics and some of the most advanced statistics in sports are in baseball.
However, ERA is not one of those great statistics. It is one of the oldest statistics in the sport and has been the main way to see which pitchers are better than others. The appeal is that it is very easy to calculate and understand and typically, the best pitchers in baseball have the best ERA.
On the other hand, there are so many different factors that go with how many runs a pitcher allows in a game that ERA doesn’t consider. All ERA does is show how many runs over nine innings a pitcher allows, but not how it happened and if it was preventable by the pitcher.
For example, some MLB stadiums are more hitter-friendly and others more pitcher-friendly. Pitchers who play in smaller ballparks or in Colorado, where the altitude is high, will, on average, allow more runs than another pitcher with the same skill.
Different teams are also better or worse defensively than others. A pitcher may be pitching well, but if the defense isn’t doing its job, the statistical blame will be placed on the pitcher using ERA.
There is a brand new advanced statistic that was unveiled last year that may be the gold standard for rating the true skill of a pitcher. The statistic is Deserved Runs Averaged or DRA. What it does is consider only what the pitcher himself can affect. In every at bat it considers many different things such as the stadium, the handedness of the batter, who is on base and whether or not the pitcher was responsible for those on base, the framing skills of the catcher, the umpire, even the temperature of the stadium. Last season Jose Fernandez was first in DRA, Justin Verlander was second, and Chris Sale was third. In ERA, however, Fernandez was ranked seventh, Verlander was 11th, and Sale was 21st. This is only a very very brief summary of DRA and to read more about it you can follow this link. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=26195