UCF Knights vs SMU Mustangs: How to watch, start time, betting line and prediction
UCF OUTLOOK
If you've paid attention to the Knights, you've witnessed how exciting they are as a team to watch. They boast the highest scoring offense in the nation, and have an Oregon feel to them under Scott Frost. It's crazy to think that this team was 0-12 two years ago, but things have changed with Frost running the show. That all starts with the play at quarterback.
McKenzie Milton's freshman year was exactly that: a freshman year. Afraid to make mistakes and timid enough to limit the offense, his improvement would be vital to UCF's success. And what a step in the right direction he did take. After a 10 touchdown and seven interception freshman campaign, Milton has already thrown 19 touchdown passes to just three interceptions, but he will tell you that it's not just his improvement that's helped the team. Joining him in the backfield is Adrian Killins, the featured back, and a group of four other backs that have the talent to run the ball. Luckily for the Knights, they've been in plenty of lopsided games that's allowed numerous backs to get time carrying the ball. Milton's also a runner, but his receivers make things easy for him so he doesn't have to do it all himself.
Coming into this year, Jordan Akins was the name everyone knew and, while he continues to be reliable, there's an explosive option to compliment the reliable Akins. Tre'Quan Smith is explosive, and that's putting it lightly. The speedster is averaging 19.2 yards per reception, and his one of the most exciting players to watch. Scott Frost's offense was expected to be good, but not this good, and his defense was expected to slowly pick things up. There wasn't much of a transition time, and his defense is also a big reason why this team's undefeated.
When you return the conference defensive player of the year, you expect one position to be solid. Shaquem Griffin is a phenomenal athlete, and the front seven that he leads was expected to be the rock of the defense. Griffin and Co. needed to find a few players to fill holes in that front seven, but knew that the four secondary positions behind them needed to be filled as well. Pat Jasinski and Chequan Burkett have not only filled two linebacker positions, they lead the team in tackles. These two have been outstanding next to Griffin, but the secondary continues to thrive as well.
Losing four starters in general is difficult to overcome, but the Knights had to replace both cornerbacks and both safeties. Players like former four star recruit Kyle Gibson and Tre Neal saw some valuable time last year, but were restricted to backup roles. They've taken their opportunities in stride, and have given defensive coordinator Erik Chinander peace of mind for the most part as the season has progressed.
SMU OUTLOOK
Offense, offense, offense. SMU can play offense, and their talent pool might make things too crowded at times. Only one position was really in question this offseason, but that was quickly answered by the play of their returning starter.
Ben Hicks was in a battle. After a 2016 season that featured promise but also concern, Hicks had to win the starting job this year. He did, and has never given Chad Morris a reason to think he made the wrong choice. With 2,305 yards and 19 touchdowns, Hicks orchestrates an offense that is loaded with talent. Right next to him is usually some combination of Xavier Jones, Ke'Mon Freeman, and Braeden West. That trio has rushed for 1,433 yards and 16 touchdowns this season. Running the ball has been a key element in the explosiveness of this offense, but it's also been the reliability of a certain LSU transfer with teams taken away Hicks' favorite target.
Courtland Sutton entered the season as one of the best receivers in the conference, but the problem was everyone already knew that. Teams all season have done their best to take away Sutton's role in the offense, and Morris knew he needed another receiver to step up. In steps Trey Quinn, who transferred to SMU hoping to get a revival of his career. He's done that and more. The conference's leading receiver has not only taken over when teams focus on Sutton, he's relieved pressure off of Sutton so the Mustangs star can contribute as well. Throw in James Proche's production too, and there are now three options that defense have to worry about. For how good this offense is, you would hope that the defense could someday pick up the slack.
Last year, the Mustangs were one of the worst defenses in the country, and not much has changed. An improvement in stopping the run has been a surprise, but they still rank 60th in that category. Every other category ranks near the bottom and, even though the offense can score, this unit needs to find a way to make more stops. Justin Lawler continues to be a beast on defense, and the emergence of Kyran Mitchell has been nice, but other players need to step up too. Safety Jordan Wyatt started the season on fire, but hasn't had too many dynamic plays since then.
PREDICTION
UCF is going to score, there's no doubt about that, but do they want to get in a shootout against SMU? I'm not so sure. While the Mustangs defense might not stop the Knights often, they do boast an explosive offense that can score many ways. UCF has the defense to contain them, but they need to play sound football to do so. I think this one gets to be a high scoring game, and I think UCF will win, but they need to be careful if that's the direction this one goes.
My pick: UCF 49 SMU 44
