Should the Steelers target a QB?
Compared to recent years, the 2018 QB draft class is absolutely stacked. The NFL hasn’t seen a draft that could see six QB’s get drafted in the first round since 1983, the draft that had Dan Marino, John Elway, and Jim Kelly in it. That’s not to say all six of these QB’s will find success in the league, but having this many first round prospects is almost unheard of. That, combined with Big Ben’s retirement looming ever nearer and the fact they have shown interest in the two that maybe available, makes QB a very big player in the first round. Before I go into what may be happening at the Pittsburgh QB depth chart, let me just say I am against the Steelers drafting a QB after round two. The big debate (that I will talk about later) is if we draft a guy Dobbs gets cut. I think drafting someone in round three or after makes that scenario more prevalent. Any QB drafted in the third round will need to sit as the number three with the Steelers, and the Steelers won’t want to roll with two unproven options as the only insurance policy if Ben goes down. While Landry Jones is far from a supreme talent, he can win games. If we pick a later round QB, it will be a battle between him and Dobbs for the number three spot unless Dobbs has a monumental preseason. Getting that of the way, Rudolph and Jackson will have to be picked with our first pick if we draft one. In this article, I will address the scenarios and pros and cons of taking a QB in the first.
First off, looking at both of the prospects that are likely to be available, I like Jackson far more. Rudolph has the looks of your typical big QB, but his play is sloppy. His stats are inflated by his college scheme, and I think that is key at looking at his potential. He does have a good arm, but his accuracy is sub-par, and he stares down receivers too much. As a ceiling, I would say he can be Mathew Stafford; an above average starter, but never anything like a top three QB. That being said, he needs some time to develop his accuracy and QB mechanics. While Rudolph is close to a Big Ben light (Small Ben? I don’t know what to call him), Jackson is a whole different breed. Based off college production alone, he looks like your stereotypical scrambling QB. But, contrary to popular belief, he is more than that. He won the Heisman due to his impressive scrambling ability, and he probably could have done the same this year. Instead though, Jackson really focused on his passing game. He looked a lot more composed and prepared in the pocket. While he was still a threat on the ground, but he acted a lot more like a pocket QB. While his cast around him caused his numbers to slack, he was the whole offense essentially. While he needs some time to hone in his accuracy, being able to sit behind Ben will surly give him the necessary time to develop more. In my personal opinion, Jackson with some time to develop can easily be the best QB in this class.
Looking at the Steelers though, is there any valid reason to take a QB in the first? It is a very open ended question with no clear answer. I think the most important factor of this scenario is what the board looks like in the first round. There are obviously more pressing needs than QB, but if the board falls unfavorably, then it makes sense to look into the QB market. For example, if LVE and Evans, the two popular Steeler ILB picks, and Reid (S, Stanford) are off the board, then this draft becomes wide open. Some would argue a receiver here makes sense, but this class of receiver has the most value in the middle rounds. Others would argue RB, but I feel like a RB will get almost as much playing time behind Bell then a QB would behind Ben. OLB is interesting, but the end of the first round talent isn’t anything great. So, assuming the board looks something like this, then I could easily see the Steelers selecting a QB.
The obvious pro of taking a QB is you are investing in the future of this team. There is never a guarantee that a player will be able to turn into a starter, but investing multiple picks into the position help increase the chances of getting a starter. Looking at the depth chart right now, the Steelers have no real future plan after Ben. Landry Jones is obviously no more than a middle of the pack backup, and while Dobbs is unproven, he seems likely to be groomed as a backup. So taking a QB in the first makes a lot of sense, because we finally have someone to crown as the eventual replacement. On top of that, I believe both Jackson and Rudolph present immediate upgrades over Jones, making him very expendable. The Steelers would realistically roll into the season with Ben, the rookie, and Dobbs as the QB trio. Some say this could hurt Dobbs, but I completely disagree. He gets more time to progress to become a back-up. For those of you who believe he is a future starter, then having two starting level QB’s is never a bad thing. With Landry, he has proven to be a dependable albeit uninspiring option. He would most likely be cut, although I could see a team departing with a late round pick for him if their starting QB went down during camp. Finally, we now have five years to develop this rookie into an eventual replacement. Realistically, Ben plays 2-3 more seasons, but that still gives 2-3 years before his rookie contract would expire. That is ample time to see if he can be the future. On top of this, while Ben is still here, if he were to go down with an injury, we would have a better chance of winning with either Rudolph or Jackson then Jones/Dobbs. The last major pro is that this QB class is deep. In most typical drafts, the Steelers wouldn’t be able to sniff a player like Rudolph or Jackson, but with so many incoming talented QB’s, the Steelers can snag one of these guys. Realistically, this could be our best bet to get a good QB value before Ben retires.
Naturally, there are some cons with taking a QB. The biggest issue is what position suffers because of it. The Steelers two largest needs are S and ILB, even though veterans were signed at those positions. Neither options are long term, so finding a young player to eventually overtake them makes sense. By opting to draft a QB, you push those players to later picks, meaning it will take more time for them to develop and see playing time while this QB sits on the bench. Building off that, the Steelers don’t have a lot of draft capitol. If you take a QB in the first, S, ILB, NT, and WR/TE get pushed, and with no additional second or third round picks, two of those positions get pushed to the fifth round or later. This could be harmful to our depth and future, as these guys will be more than likely backups instead of future starters. Finally, and probably the least likely of these, what if Ben plays longer? If he ends up playing 4-5 more years, whatever rookie we would potentially take here would never have a chance to show if they are the legitimate QB of the future. Then you either take a flyer and resign him not knowing what he brings to the table, or you let him walk and lose out on a first round pick.
All in all, I’m not against the Steelers taking a QB as long as he has a clear shot to be the top backup (to make Jones cuttable). That being said, the Steelers shouldn’t ignore their top needs (S/ILB) to take a QB. By all means, if LVE or Justin Reid are on the board, they make more sense than a QB. If their need areas are depleted though, investing into the future of the QB position makes a lot of sense.
