The Madness of March: Who Will Be 2017's Cinderella?
Every year, we see a similar cast of characters near the top of the brackets. Teams like Kentucky, Duke, North Carolina, Kansas, UCLA, and Louisville always seem to end up as the top seeds in the NCAA Men's Basketball tournament. And while it's true that 7 of the last 10 National Champions have been #1 seeds, that doesn't necessarily mean that the biggest story of the tournament will be one of the favorites living up to the expectations. Often times, we see the biggest name of the tournament coming from seemingly out of nowhere. That is what I want to focus on: Who will fit in the slipper and become 2017's Cinderella team??
Although the Villanova Wildcats are the defending National Champions, and are in position to repeat as the #1 overall seed in this year's field of 68, the only other title for 'Nova came as one of the least likely underdogs in 1985. Going up against the mighty, top seeded Georgetown Hoyas, led by future NBA Hall of Famer Patrick Ewing, the Wildcats made 86% of their shots in the first half, en route to a stunning upset victory. To this day, the 8th seeded Villanova Wildcats of 1985 are the lowest seeded team to win the tournament.
Just a few years ago, the Butler Bulldogs were America's darlings of the NCAA Tournament. Their improbable run to the Championship game in 2010, followed by their incredible return to the Title game in 2011, is the stuff of legend.
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Other teams, such as Butler in 2010 and 2011, George Mason in 2006, Virginia Commonwealth in 2011, Louisiana State in 1986, Wichita State in 2013, and Syracuse last year, just to name a few, have all made improbable runs to the Final Four. Of these schools, only Butler and Wichita State were single digit seeds. Additionally, only Butler in 2010 and 2011 made the Championship game (they lost both times, but just making the Finals for a team from the Horizon League is immeasurably impactful).
In 2017, there are a few teams towards the top that are seen as Championship contenders, but there hasn't really been a runaway favorite as we have seen in years past. Maybe this is the year that another #8 seed wins. Maybe this year we see yet another double digit seed team make the Final Four. Maybe, in a year with so much unpredictability, we should be looking a little farther down the bracket to find our champions in 2017. Let's get the hunt for Cinderella started:
The Arkansas Razorbacks were not favored to make the SEC Championship game. However, that is just what they did. Although they fell to the Kentucky Wildcats in the title game, the run that Arkansas went on has them primed to make a surprise run in the NCAA Tournament.
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Arkansas Razorbacks: #8 Seed, 25-9, SEC Runner-Up
Arkansas has had relatively little success since their National Championship run in 1994. Since losing in the championship game the following year, the Razorbacks have made just one Sweet 16, and that was in 1996. In 2017, a rather mundane season may have more potential than you think. An unlikely run to the SEC Title game against Kentucky has Arkansas riding high, due in no small part to Senior forward Moses Kingsley. He leads the team in Rebounds and Blocks per game, and is one of four players averaging double digit points. Facing a potential matchup against #1 seed North Carolina in the 2nd round will be a giant hurdle to clear, but this Arkansas team has 12 wins over teams rated in the RPI Top 100, with only 6 losses against such teams. Look for the Razorbacks to make an upset minded push in the tournament.
The Dayton Flyers have turned into perennial NCAA Tournament contenders, thanks in no small part to their head coach, Archie Miller, and his leadership of the winningest Senior class in school history.
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Dayton Flyers: #7 Seed, 24-7, Atlantic 10 Regular Season Champions
This is the winningest Senior class in UD Basektball history. That is no small feat, considering the Flyers have a longstanding history of winning and have a National Runner-Up performance to their credit. This years team was considered to be a legit Preseason Top 25 threat before the tragic passing of star Center Steve McElvene. Having to cope with the loss of a popular teammate, as well as a talented threat down low, the Flyers fought through the season, bringing everything together in the end to clinch the A-10 Regular Season Championship on Senior Night at UD Arena. While there is a glaring weakness in the paint with Dayton, if they start making baskets, watch out, as this team has a 12-4 record against RPI Top 100 teams, and went 4-3 against the RPI Top 50. If the Flyers make an improbably run in the tourney, don't say I didn't warn you.
Though less famous than their cross state counterparts in Las Vegas, the University of Nevada Wolfpack have themselves right in the middle of the 2017 NCAA Tournament. It's a tough road ahead, but it's not one that the Wolfpack can't handle.
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Nevada Wolfpack: #12 Seed, 28-6, Mountain West Champions
When you have a player that averages almost 20 points a game, as Nevada does with Senior Guard Marcus Marshall, you have a great chance to pull some upsets. Nevada already did that once by toppling New Mexico in the Mountain West Finals. Five of the Wolfpack's players average double digit points, including the afforementioned Marshall, which will be critical for a squad that will face a #5 seed Iowa State squad right off the bat. That being said, Nevada has already won 10 of 15 games against RPI Top 100 opponents. While it won't be an easy run for the Wolfpack, this team could be primed for a long run through the Madness.
Princeton Tigers: #13 Seed, 23-6, Ivy League Champions
The Princeton Tigers are the first ever champions of the Ivy League Tournament. No, seriously, they had never held a conference tournament before this year. Princeton has a history of success in the postseason, including a Final Four appearance in 1965, an NIT championship in 1975, and coming within a point of becoming the first #16 seed to take down a #1 seed in 1989 (Georgetown barely scraped by 50-49). The Tigers are riding an 18 game winning streak, and their traditionally stout defense has not allowed over 70 points since falling to Monmouth 96-90 in December. Perhaps the longest shot of all the teams listed here, it still wouldn't be a surprise to see Princeton make a run towards the Final Four.
Vermont Catamounts: #13 Seed, 29-5, America East Champions
It isn't often that the champion of the America East Conference would be considered a darkhorse to make a run in the NCAA Tournament. Vermont might just buck that trend. The Catamounts have won 21 straight games, the longest streak of any team going into the tournament. Vermont is led by Freshman Forward Anthony Lamb, who leads the team in points, rebounds, and blocks per game. Let's not forget that the Catamounts has had an upset bid in the Big Dance before (in 2005, they, also as a #13 seed, took down #4 seed Syracuse in OT). Even though this squad has yet to defeat an RPI Top 100 rated team, they haven't had a chance to since early in the season. Vermont has all the momentum in the world, and they might be just the team to make a Cinderella type run in 2017.
Virginia Commonwealth Rams: #10 Seed, 25-8, Atlantic 10 Runner Up
Not too long ago, VCU became the first team to advance from the First Four in Dayton all the way to the Final Four as a #11 Seed. Coach Shaka Smart has left the Rams for Texas, but VCU is still in a prime position to continue their basketball success. Led by Senior Guard JeQuan Lewis and Junior Forward Justin Tillman, the Rams were the runners up in the regular season, and proceeded to win the Atlantic 10 Tournament. With a similar pressure style that persisted under Coach Smart, it is a matchup that few, if any, teams will enjoy seeing in the Tournament. While this team will not come out of nowhere, as the 2011 squad did, Virginia Commonwealth in 2017 has the tools to make another big run deep into the tourney.
Virginia Cavaliers: #5 Seed, 22-10, Atlantic Coast Conference Semifinalist
When one thinks of beautiful, artistic basketball, one doesn't think of the Virginia Cavaliers. Virginia plays a methodical, slow paced, defensive game that is agonizing for opponents, but has been highly successful for the Cavaliers over recent years. It isn't a stretch to say that Virginia doesn't deserve to be on this list, since they have been towards the top of the brackets over the past few seasons, and are the highest seeded team on this list. However, this year's Cavaliers squad fell 10 times, and 8 of those losses came to teams within the RPI Top 50. That being said, it shouldn't be discounted that 14 of Virginia's 22 victories were against teams within the RPI Top 100. With it's defensive prowess, and victories over schools such as top seeded North Carolina and #2 seed Louisville, the Cavaliers have an outside shot and shouting "Wahoo" all the way to the Final Four.
At the end of the day, these 7 teams are unlikely to win the National Championship. It's a sad reality, but that's the way it normally is in the NCAA Tournament. Yet, I find it just as probable for the 2017 Tournament to see a Cinderella run of some sort, especially with a field as wide open as this one. If it's going to be anyone, then I find these 7 teams to have the best chance of anyone to win it all.
Seven schools that won't get the publicity they deserve, because they aren't named Duke or Kentucky or Kansas, just got the recognition of which they are worthy. All 68 teams deserve to be recognized for their achievements, no matter how great or small their stature.
