October Glory for Rangers Could Cement HOF Legacies of Beltre and Beltran
When the Rangers acquired Carlos Beltran from the Yankees on August 1st, they joined the 4th ranked player on the active games played list with the player ranked 2nd on the list, resident super-vet Adrian Beltre . With a combined 5,159 games played and 21,675 plate appearances over 38 seasons, there isn't a more tenured and accomplished duo in the major leagues. 'Tre and 'Tran of the Bel clan have been named to 13 All-Star teams, and have been awarded a combined seven Gold Gloves and six Silver Sluggers since their storied careers began in 1998.
For all of the pair's accolades however, there is one glaring omission in each of their resumes: A World Series ring. Like the Rangers franchise itself, the duo have appeared in two Fall Classics, falling short of the ultimate goal on both occasions. Beltran was a member of the 2013 NL champion Cardinals that were defeated by the Red Sox in the World Series, while Beltre's AL champ Rangers fell to the Cards in a memorable seven game series in 2011.
Now in the twilight of their careers, the veterans find themselves on the potential #1 seeded team in the American League, looking to avenge a first round exit suffered at the hands of the Toronto Blue Jays last October. While last year's team rode a remarkable second half to an improbable division title, the 2016 Rangers haven't had to look up in the standings since late May, and clinched the AL West crown this week. Bolstered by the acquisitions of Beltran, Jonathan Lucroy and Astros cast-off Carlos Gomez , Texas is poised for a run deep into the postseason.
While Beltran's Hall of Fame candidacy has been called into question by some, Beltre's remarkable run with Texas over the last six seasons has put him over the top in the minds of many baseball experts, including SI's MLB powerhouse Jay Jaffe. Beltre may find his way to Cooperstown without a ring, but the elusive championship could very well be the golden ticket to the pair's inclusion into baseball's most exclusive club.
Let's take a closer look at the cases for both stars, as they stand today:
Carlos Beltran
Beltran was one of the game's premier players during his prime, spanning roughly from 2001-2012. Still, an 11 year stretch a HOFer does not necessarily make; and after injuries led to career lows in batting average and on-base percentage in 2014, it was unclear how much the 37 year old Beltran had left in the tank. Thanks in part to the friendly confines of Yankee Stadium however, Beltran bounced back to post solid numbers in 2015, and in 2016 is enjoying his best season since 2012 with St. Louis. Now 39, Beltran is sitting at .298/.340/.516/.856, and could possibly reach 30 home runs with an outside shot of reaching 100 RBIs.
"Compilers", or players who accrued impressive career numbers yet never reached the status of an MVP or truly game changing player (think Fred McGriff ) have been shunned by the Hall in the wake of the steroid era, due in part to the fact so many players posted historic offensive numbers during the period. Some voters may lump Beltran into this category, as his career numbers in the meat and potato categories are good, but not necessarily great when compared to his contemporaries.
Beltran currently sits at 420 career homers to go along with 1,535 RBI, and a career slash of .281/.354/.492/.846. His career OPS+ of 121 is a microcosm of his career as a whole: All-Star caliber, but one of the game's greatest ever?
Beltran's itinerant career could also be a factor in voter's willingness to elect him, as favor seems to be granted to players who spent 10+ years with one team and became a "face of the franchise". I'm here to argue that Carlos Beltran etched his name in not just one, but two team's record books. While the Rangers are his fourth team since 2011, Beltran spent the vast majority of his best years in Kansas City and New York, and in just seven seasons with each team put up numbers in several categories that rank in the top ten in each franchise's history.
Beltran ranks 4th in Royals history in both slugging and OPS, and is 10th in team history in both home runs and RBI. His 164 steals with KC ranks 7th all time. Keep in mind he put up these numbers between the ages of 21 and 27, and would have ranked much higher had he stayed with the club.
It's easy to forget that amid years of futility, Damon, Dye, and Beltran were once seen as the future of the Kansas City Royals.
Instead Beltran spent the best seasons of his career in New York with the Mets, where he made similar dents in the franchise record books. He ranks 6th in Mets history in both homers (149) and RBI (559), and stands 4th in club history in OPS (.869) and 5th in slugging (.500). His monster 2006 season in New York (41 HR, 116 RBI, 150 OPS+) led to a 4th place finish in MVP voting, the highest of his career, in addition to collecting a Gold Glove and Silver Slugger as a center fielder.
His career WAR of 70.2 also places him right on the precipice of the Hall according to Jay Jaffe's JAWS, which is designed to measure a player's Hall of Fame worthiness in comparison to players at his same position who have already been enshrined. According to JAWS, the average Hall of Fame center fielder posted a career WAR of 71.1.
Where Beltran has truly set himself apart is his performance in the postseason. Now that may sound odd given the fact he's never won the ultimate prize, but he hasn't come short for lack of trying. A veteran of 11 playoff series, Beltran carries a .332/.441/.674 slash in the playoffs, with 16 home runs and 41 RBI.
His eight homers during the 2004 NL playoffs are tied for the most by any player in a single postseason, and the most all time by a player who's team did not reach the World Series (Barry Bonds hit 8 for the '02 Giants, and Nelson Cruz hit 8 for the '11 Rangers). While he infamously struck out against the Cardinals Adam Wainwright in game 7 of the 2006 NLCS, it should be noted he had already clubbed three homers in that series. When Beltran returned to the postseason in 2012 as a member of those St. Louis Cardinals, he batted .357 across the NLDS and NLCS.
Although he played just 90 regular season games in a Houston Astros uniform, Carlos Beltran's 2004 postseason was one for the record books
Once again a free agent following this season, Beltran's performance in this year's postseason could have a major impact on what teams are willing to pay the 19 year vet, who will turn 40 in April '17. But if you ask Carlos, I'm sure he wouldn't mind foregoing his 20th season if he can book end his career with a World Series championship.
Adrian Beltre
The baseball world in large part was introduced to the game changing ability of Adrian Beltre in 2004, when the then 25 year old third baseman clubbed 48 homers and drove in 121 while batting .334 with a stellar 1.017 OPS. In almost any other season in baseball history he would have been named NL MVP, but in 2004 a fellow named Bonds went ahead and slugged .812 with a cartoonish 263 OPS+ (I know right, those numbers actually happened).
Still, the break out season was enough to earn Beltre a five-year, $64 million deal with the Seattle Mariners, who inserted him into the middle of their line up with hopes he could continue to perform at an MVP caliber level. In 2005 however, Beltre hit 29 fewer home runs than his final year in Los Angeles to go along with a nearly 80 point drop in batting average. While a drop off from such a tremendous 2004 campaign was not out of the realm of possibility, a 200 point difference in slugging was not what the M's had in mind when they landed the coveted Beltre.
Adrian Beltre has become so cemented in our minds as a Texas Ranger, the five ill-fated seasons he spent in the Pacific Northwest are now but a distant memory
The third baseman fared better from 2006-2008, averaging 25 homers and 88 RBI per season while blossoming defensively to the tune of consecutive Gold Gloves in '07-'08. But an injury plagued 2009 season that resulted in a career low 8 homers, coupled with three last place finishes during his tenure in Seattle (including 101 losses in 2008) led many to categorize the signing as a bust. Beltre once again hit free agency in the winter of 2009, this time landing a much more modest one-year, $10 million contract with the Red Sox.
What came next probably falls short of being called a rebirth, but could surely stand as a career Renaissance.
In 2010 Beltre hit a major league leading 49 doubles to couple with 28 home runs and his second career 100 RBI season. He was named to his first All-Star team and collected his second Silver Slugger, finishing the year with an impressive .321/.365/.533 slash. His 141 OPS+ was his highest since his break through 2004. Beltre once again hit free agency following the season, and landed the contract of his life, a six-year, $96 million deal with the defending AL champion Texas Rangers.
He followed up his outstanding 2010 with an even better 2011, mashing 32 bombs with 105 RBI in just 124 games as the Rangers once again captured the AL pennant. He earned the second of three straight All-Star trips, while adding another Gold Glove and Silver Slugger award to his resume. All told in six seasons with Texas, Beltre has put up a .308/.358/.515 line, has finished in the top ten in MVP voting three times, and has established himself as one of the best third basemen of his generation.
A once in a generation defender at the hot corner, Adrian Beltre has patented the trademark bare hand charge that defines any good third baseman
Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
He now sits at 444 homers, nearly 1,600 RBIs, and is 65 hits shy of 3,000 for his career. Beltre's 588 doubles is 19th most all-time, and his 89.4 WAR puts him among the top 30 most valuable players in the history of baseball; ahead of Hall of Famers George Brett , Ken Griffey Jr ., Robin Yount , Joe DiMaggio , and Frank Thomas , just to name a few.
As a third baseman, Adrian Beltre ranks second all-time in double plays turned, fifth in assists, and ninth in put outs. His 69.4 JAWS puts him well ahead of the 55.1 average for HOF third sackers, and Jaffe himself reiterated Beltre's strong case for the Hall as recently as July of this season. All that's missing to solidify his case as an all-time great is a very large ring on his finger.
While no team has emerged as the clear front runner in the AL, the Rangers have as good a case as any team (alongside the Red Sox) as they have clinched their division early and can somewhat afford to rest starters during the final week of the regular season. That being said, aside from Cole Hamels and a recently shaky Yu Darvish , the Rangers starting rotation scares exactly no one, and their bullpen has been one of the worst in the AL.
Home field advantage would certainly be a feather in the Rangers cap, with Boston currently sitting tied with Texas for the best record in the junior circuit by virtue of the 11 game rampage they've strung together. However, Boston will finish the season with five games against division rivals New York and Toronto, while the Rangers close out in somewhat odd fashion against bottom feeders Milwaukee and Tampa Bay.
Two potential Hall of Famers, three weeks in October. Wouldn't an ALDS rematch against the Jays be something else.
-AC
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