Nerlens Noel Is The NBA's Most Intriguing Trade Chip
John Geliebter-USA TODAY Sports
Nerlens Noel made headlines recently (or what can be considered an NBA headline during the dead point of the NBA calendar) when he criticized the Philadelphia Sixers for not putting together a competent and balanced roster, even saying that the big man logjam in Philly "doesn't make any sense."
He's not wrong.
As we should all know, Sam Hinkie's failed 'process' landed the Sixers three bright young centers all picked within the first six picks of three straight drafts. Hinkie's philosophy of drafting the best asset available has meant that the Sixers now have next to no talent outside of the frontcourt, in a league becoming increasingly less reliant on big men. From a basketball point of view, Noel is right, the team doesn't make any sense. Arguably their five best players (Dario Saric, Ben Simmons, Nerlens Noel, Jahlil Okafor and Joel Embiid) all play either the four or the five, which probably means that at any one time, just two (at a stretch three) of their best five players can share the court.
And it gets to a whole new level of stupidity when you realize that despite having their best five players all play in the frontcourt, their skill sets don't exactly fit together like puzzle pieces. Out of those five players, only Dario Saric can hit any sort of jump shot consistently. In an NBA landscape where floor spacing is paramount, having just one of your foundational players be able to hit a jump shot isn't great. With the lack of floor spacing in their frontcourt, Ben Simmons is going to have trouble weaving his way into the paint and doing his best LeBron James impression, while the likes of Joel Embiid and Jahlil Okafor both won't be able to be nearly as effective in the post as they should be without decent spacing.
Whether you consider the process a success or a failure, you have to admit that the Sixers' current roster is absolutely ridiculous. Constructing a squad of players that can't actually play with each other is idiotic. Sure, Hinkie's plan may have gathered a solid pool of assets, but that asset collection actually has to try and win games and without floor spacing, roster balance or you know...a point guard.
It's therefore quite obvious that the way forward for this Sixers team is to deal one or two of those assets to fill areas of their squad in desperate need of fixing. With Hinkie no longer in charge and the philosophy of the franchise changing away from his beliefs, it is highly likely that Bryan Colangelo and company will deal one of their big men to put together a working roster that might actually record more than 10 wins this season. Colangelo even went on the record in July, stating that it is probable that the Sixers will have to deal a big man to sort out the terrifying lack of roster balance.
The thing is, all the other 29 teams around the league know this. They are completely aware that the Sixers will have to deal a big man and because of it, they know that they don't have to give up much at all to acquire one of them. Colangelo is yet to lower the trade price for any of his bigs, which explains why no team has made a deal yet, but as time rolls on, the need to strengthen other areas of the roster and the need to clear out the big man logjam will continue to grow.
Just who will get dealt is at the moment unclear, but by using the process of elimination it becomes obvious who the most likely player to get traded is. Saric and Simmons are untouchables. Saric is the only floor spacer in the clogged rotation and has looked like his star after his time in Europe, meanwhile Simmons isn't going anywhere because the Sixers just invested the number one overall pick into him.
This leaves Joel Embiid, Jahlil Okafor and Nerlens Noel.
Embiid is an unproven rookie and the Sixers will want to see what he can do after two years of waiting. His reputation prior to his injury setbacks will be more than intriguing enough to force the Sixers to keep him around. It's easy to forget, but just two short years ago, Embiid was the next Hakeem Olajuwon. We were all sure of it. His raw talent and physical gifts were and still are absolutely astounding. Philly aren't dealing Embiid, at least, not before he gets a chance to prove he is for real.
Next up on the list is Jahlil Okafor, whose game is extinct from the modern day NBA. Back-to-basket big men are almost all dead as none of them can't fit with the current NBA which relies heavily on versatility, athleticism and shooting. To me, I don't see a team in the league that would give up a valuable asset in exchange for Okafor in his current state. Greg Monroe is essentially a polished version of Okafor without the off-court, personality and rebounding issues. The Bucks have tried to give Monroe away for free since the offseason began and no one would take him on, it was no secret. So what chance does Philly have of getting something decent in return for Okafor? What's even the point in dealing him?
That leaves Nerlens Noel as the most eligible player to get traded from this 76ers team. He has played two seasons already, he isn't a star, so the Sixers wouldn't view him as untouchable, yet he is already proven run and jump big that can fit into the modern NBA. Any team could use a guy like him on their roster. Not to mention Noel has made it pretty clear that he wouldn't mind leaving Philadelphia.
What makes him the 'NBA's most intriguing trade chip' is his trade price. As already mentioned, the Sixers will eventually need to deal one of their big men, so the price will already be lower than it should be, but there's a plot twist in the form that this is Nerlens Noel's contract year. Noel will be a restricted free agent next summer and teams will know that they won't have to offer the flat top too much for the Sixers not to match an offer next July, because of the glut of bigs the Sixers already have. Teams could get him on a below market contract next summer, so there is no incentive for any team to offer much in a trade for Noel now.
However, because Colangelo knows that he may not extend Noel's contract past 2017, it makes the most sense for the Sixers to trade the big man now, in case they lose him for absolutely nothing in 2017. What all of this means is that any team that would like to acquire Nerlens, could get him on a cut-price trade deal right now.
But his trade price is only half of what makes Noel such an appealing trade candidate. The other side of the coin is that Noel is a really damn good young player.
Sure, he doesn't have an offensive game and may never develop one, but his defensive prowess is more than enough to make a deal for. In just two NBA seasons, Nerlens has proven that he has the potential to be an elite defensive player. His explosive athleticism and 7'4'' wingspan make him a nightmare for anyone to shoot over. Add in his incredible timing and instincts and you have a rim-protecting prototype.
It's not just the rim-barricade you're trading for with Noel, it's the complete defensive package. Last season, due to the fact that Jahlil Okafor can't physically move and therefore can't guard anyone on the perimeter, Nerlens Noel had to spend most of his time defending away from the rim. Surprisingly enough, Noel succeeded in that role. He was nimble enough to keep up with smaller fours and he found ways to limit their production, despite the clear disadvantage he was at with his size. With the ability to chase smaller, quicker players around the perimeter, added on to the shot blocking part of his game, he will be a dominant defensive force for years to come.
If he can ever add to his offensive repertoire that currently only consists of scoring from 2 feet and in (where he shoots 71.6%, per basketball-reference), he will become one of the better big men in the NBA. With his athleticism, he should be a great pick and roll target, but instead, he ranked in the 34th percentile among pick and roll men last season, which is awful. Most of this can be attributed to the horrific spacing the Sixers had for him and his massively high turnover rate of 15% in these types of plays.
Because of the need to trade a big man and the fact that Noel is a free agent next year, a perfect storm could be brewing for any of the other 29 teams to snap a bright young prospect on the cheap. Get on the phones everyone, get on the phones right now.
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