NFL Playoffs: Divisional Round Preview
The first weekend of the NFL playoffs did not feature any close games, but it set up some interesting matchups for next weekend. In case you missed this weekend of blowouts, here’s a quick recap of what happened in the Wild Card round.
A Hail Mary from Aaron Rodgers to Randall Cobb (18) was the highlight of the Wild Card round, where the closest game was decided by 13 points.
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The first game of this year’s NFL playoffs featured the struggling Houston Texans, who snuck into the playoffs despite benching quarterback Brock Osweiler in favor of Tom Savage for the last two games, and the Oakland Raiders, who had a dominant regular season but lost two quarterbacks at the end of the year. For this game, Osweiler returned to the Texans’ starting lineup due to an injury to Savage, while the Raiders were forced to play rookie Connor Cook at quarterback. While Cook had a great college career at Michigan State, he had less than half a game of NFL experience coming into this playoff game. Cook’s inexperience was apparent from the start of the game, as the rookie seemed easily overmatched by Jadeveon Clowney and the Texans’ strong defense. Cook was intercepted three times, and finished the game with just 161 passing yards and only one touchdown, which came when the Raiders were already out of the game. Osweiler was not dominant, but he took care of the ball; the Texans did not turn the ball over at all, and that turned out to be the difference in the game. Houston took the lead early, and held on for a straightforward 27-14 win.
In the second game on Saturday, the Lions learned the hard way that Seattle has the best home field advantage in the NFL. While the Lions’ defense was solid until the 4th quarter, the offense looked lost the entire day. Matthew Stafford threw for 205 yards and no touchdowns, while the whole Lions team ran for just 49 yards. Matt Prater hit two 50+ yard field goals, but that was the only silver lining for the Lions as the Seahawks won comfortably. A 16-point 4th quarter sealed the game for Seattle, with the home team winning 26-6.
On Sunday, the games didn’t get any closer. The first game of the day was between the Dolphins and Steelers, with Miami missing their quarterback and Pittsburgh having home field advantage. The Steelers jumped out to a quick 14-0 lead before Miami could do anything with their drives, and while Matt Moore started to get into a rhythm in the passing game, he gave the ball away on two fumbles to stop any momentum the Dolphins had built. In addition to Moore’s struggles, the running game was almost nonexistent. After a spectacular regular season, Jay Ajayi ran for just 33 yards on 16 carries, and the Dolphins only managed a total of 52 rushing yards for the whole team. Ben Roethlisberger did not have a great game, with just 13 completions and 2 interceptions, but two big throws to Antonio Brown gave the Steelers a big enough lead to survive any mistakes they made through the rest of the game. Le’Veon Bell ran for 167 yards and two touchdowns on the day, as the Steelers cruised to a 30-12 victory.
In the final game of the Wild Card round, the New York Giants travelled to Green Bay to face Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. This game was very competitive for a long time, with the first half being a defensive, scrappy game. With a 7-6 lead in the final seconds of the first half, the Packers went for a Hail Mary from the 42-yard line. Somehow, the Giants lost track of Randall Cobb, and the young receiver got behind the cluster of players to catch the ball in the back of the end zone. The game was still within reach for the Giants at this point, but a 14-6 lead at the half was enough that the Packers never trailed in the rest of the game. The Giants scored first in the second half to come within one point, but Aaron Rodgers was simply too good in the rest of the game. Rodgers finished with 362 yards, 4 touchdowns, and no turnovers, while Eli Manning had just one touchdown pass, threw an interception, and also lost the ball on a fumble forced by Clay Matthews. The Packers scored the last 24 points of the game, winning by a score of 38-13.
Falcons' QB Matt Ryan had arguably the best season of his career in 2016, establishing himself as a candidate for MVP.
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Heading into the Divisional round, the first game of this weekend will be the Seahawks and Falcons at the Georgia Dome. The Seahawks usually struggle outside of Seattle, and Atlanta usually struggles in the playoffs no matter where they are, but someone has to win this game. Despite his past struggles in the playoffs, Matt Ryan looks better than ever, and has a chance to be the NFL MVP this season. In the regular season, Ryan was the league leader in yards per pass and QB rating, as well as finishing second in passing yards behind only Drew Brees. Russell Wilson’s numbers at home are solid, but his performance suffers on the road. Compared to his home stats, Russell Wilson averages a full yard less per attempt on the road, throws more than double the amount of interceptions (8 on the road, 3 at home), and his QB rating goes down from 103.5 at home to just 82.1 on the road. A QBR of 82.1 would be 25th among QBs in the regular season, only marginally better than Carson Wentz and Blake Bortles. Unless the Seahawks run game is completely unstoppable, they’ll find themselves in some trouble against Atlanta.
Prediction: Falcons 38, Seahawks 17
Tom Savage, who has two career starts, is (possibly) the Texans' starting quarterback. His opponent has four Super Bowl rings. This should be fun.
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In the late game on Saturday, the top-seeded New England Patriots host the Houston Texans in a game with the largest point spread ever for a playoff game. The Patriots are currently 16-point favorites, and that number could go up even farther before Saturday. There is little reason to believe that Houston has a shot in this game. The Texans had the league’s best defense in the regular season, but they allowed 27 points to the Patriots when 3rd string rookie Jacoby Brissett was the New England quarterback. Now that Brady and the majority of the Pats’ offense is healthy, the Texans are in trouble. The defense will struggle to contain the Patriots’ dynamic offense, which means the Texans will need to score a lot. Whoever plays quarterback will need to outduel Tom Brady; this seems highly unlikely for Brock Osweiler or Tom Savage.
Prediction: Patriots 41, Texans 10
Chiefs DT Dontari Poe is not only an elite defensive lineman: he's also the neaviest player to throw a touchdown pass in NFL history.
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Sunday’s action begins with the Chiefs and Steelers playing in Kansas City. The Chiefs won their division on the strength of two wins against the Raiders, a 6-2 home record, and a 10-2 finish after a 4-2 start. The Steelers won the regular season match between these teams easily, but that was early in the season, and took place in Pittsburgh. Now, the Steelers have to go on the road to face a Chiefs team that has been very strong at home. Both teams finished the season strong, with the Steelers winning their last seven (although they nearly lost to the Browns) and the Chiefs winning five of their last six. Home field advantage could be crucial in this game; Chiefs QB Alex Smith performs roughly the same at home or on the road, but Ben Roethlisberger has struggled on the road this year. At home, Big Ben has 20 TD passes and 5 interceptions, but on the road he’s thrown just nine touchdowns with 8 picks. The Steelers will have to rely on their running game to establish their offense in this contest. They are more than capable of dominating on the ground, but they might have serious problems if they fall behind early. This game should be close throughout (it has to happen at some point in these playoffs), but home field advantage will help the Chiefs reach their first AFC Championship game since 1993.
Prediction: Chiefs 27, Steelers 24
Zack Martin (70) and the rest of the Cowboys' offensive line have done a stellar job this season protecting rookie quarterback Dak Prescott (4).
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Finally, the top-seeded Cowboys will host the Packers in a rematch of an exciting playoff game from two years ago. The Packers won that one at Lambeau, but the results could be very different this year in Dallas. The Cowboys are heavily reliant on rookies, with quarterback Dak Prescott and running back Ezekiel Elliot leading the team to a 13-3 regular season. Obviously these two are untested in a playoff situation, but they have the strongest offensive line in recent history protecting them and a solid veteran core on the defense and special teams. The Cowboys have a few key players injured on defense, but their offense is almost 100% healthy, which is unusual and scary at this point in the year. The Packers have not been as lucky; it looks like receiver Jordy Nelson will be unavailable on Sunday, and other stars like Clay Matthews and Randall Cobb are going to be less than 100% even though they will probably play. Julius Peppers also didn't practice on Wednesday, but it was not injury related (the injury report lists him as "not injury related/old." Seriously. I've never seen that one before). With all of these key playmakers missing or struggling for the Packers, Dallas has a very good chance to reach the NFC Championship game despite their inexperience on offense.
Prediction: Cowboys 33, Packers 20
I'll be back next week with a preview of the conference championships!
