Sleeper Post #1

I wanted to write about a sleeper that is actually that. A sleeper. Man those guys are hard to find anymore. Nearly impossible in football, but still there in baseball. Just buried deep. Generally the term is overused. But I think I have a couple for you today, maybe, possibly, ehh maybe not. There are definitely some qualifiers that need to be in place first. But I have searched the web high and low (at quick google and a glance at the top returns) and can't find a sleeper article on either player so I am going to go for it. Keep in mind we are talking deep league guys. Unless the qualifiers that are necessary actually happen. Then, maybe, we are really onto something. 

I went into this looking for stolen base guys. It's no secret SBs are harder to come by lately. In 2016 there were eight 30 SB players. In 2015 there were 7. In 2014 there were 12. Ten and 11 years ago, 2006 and 07, had 19 apiece.  MLB only had 2537 last year. That's down by a significant margin from the two years I referenced previously. So yeah, hard to find stolen bases. The first guy I wanted to outline got some playing time in mlb last year, had the skill set I wanted, but, alas, he is blocked. Like, really blocked. Teoscar Hernandez. We should be calling him Fortunato. MLB list him as third on the depth chart in center behind Springer and Marisnick. He is also third in right behind (NEWLY SIGNED!) Reddick and again Springer. Why is it a big deal that they signed Reddick? Because they also signed Beltran and Nori Aoki. Right now Hernandez looks like he is no better than the 6th outfielder and we haven't even touched on Preston Tucker. 

Ok, so why is this dude a sleeper if he won't see the field? Well, it's what he can do If he sees the field. Last season he had an .836 OPS with 34 stolen bases between double and triple a in 107 games. The year before (a down year), his OPS sat at .637 but he slugged 17 hr and stole 33 bases in 121 games. Going back a third year, he he had an OPS of .897 and stole 33 in 19 games. The guy has some wheels and some pop. His down 2015 is the oddball in his milb career. His milb OPS is 784 and he has averaged 27 stolen bases in his 6 seasons. He got called up last year and did, meh. .724 OPS, 4 hr. no SBs. IF he gets playing time, then, yeah I am interested in owning him. 

So what would it take for him to see the mlb field. Well....it helps being behind Josh Reddick for one. Springer, Aoki and Beltran have all had injuries in the past and Aoki and Beltran are old at this point so the injury bug is seemingly always lurking around the next bend. Marisnick has had hammy trouble before but that was several years ago so we will throw that out. But being lined up behind Reddick, Springer, Aoki and Beltran is probably enough to assume that there will be opportunities to fill in throughout the season. Is he worth owning on day one? At this point probably not. But if your league is deep or waivers are extremely competitive than, maybe. I have a player comp for you but I want to come back to it later. 

Player two! Ahh, see, I told you there were two. You just had to make it through the first 600 words. So when I dove into Hernandez situation and decided he was too blocked I looked around for another player who had a similar skill set but a better opportunity. Maybe. This guy has actually been a "sleeper" before. I mean in the crappy way the term sleeper is thrown out there. This guy had speed! He had projection for future power! He had no position and his manager loved that! Wait....what? Oh yeah. This dude was the next Ben Zobrist for the Cubs before Ben Zobrist was a Cub. A jack of all trades that had speed and power and was the ultimate fantasy swiss army knife. You probably already know this player, but if not, Arimendy Alcantra. 

Alcantra was in the wave of young Cubs hitters that we were hearing were coming. He was part of the Jorge Solar and Kris Bryant youth movement. In fact he beat both of them to the majors. In 2014, at the ripe old age of 22, he amassed 70 games and 300 plate appearances. His OPS was a whopping .621. The team talked about his versatility. They played him at 2nd and CF, despite his lack of OF experience. If you count the Dominican Winter league he had played 26 professional games in the OF. He seemed over his head. I remember watching the situation and wondering why the team continued this experiment. He just looked like a guy that wasn't ready to be a utility player. I know he only played two spots but I think that was because he was struggling so badly. Like the team didn't want to push anymore because they could see t wasn't really working. 

Being a utility player well is hard. I don't just mean because big strong men throw the ball 95 mph past year. You just don't see many guys do it well and retain their ability to hit and field well. Zobrist is kind of the model over the last decade. Michael Young was kind of that guy before Zobrist, although he never played OF. Jose Ramirez, of Cleveland might be able to be this type of guy I think, but he may also settle in at 3rd. That's what seems to happen to most utl guys. They break out as utl guys, to get their bats in the lineup. After that, their teams end up penciling them into the lineup in a particular spot daily. And just to be clear here, were are not talking about the utl player every team has, the guy that can field but cant hit or vise versa. We are talking about the rare hit and field well or at least avg utl player. Try and think of how many of those types have been able to do it well over the last 10 years. Most of them only did it for a year before becoming everyday players. Almost none did it as a career like Zobrist. I don't know why it's hard, but it appears to be harder than being an everyday player. Kind of a hard comparison for a 22 year old rookie. 

The next year Joe Madden came to town and the Zobrist comp got louder. But it was being force fed. Alcantra got only 32 PA and was done with the Cubbies. He got moved in a deal to Oakland. He got 19 PA with Oakland in 2016 and was DFA'd in Oct. He was claimed by the Reds. There were more appealing spots he could have landed, say San Diego. But, The Reds are bad and seem to be taking an approach that gives young players a chance to show what they have, if they have upside, I am looking at you, Adam Duvall. The downside of the reds is he is blocked at his best positions. Second is currently manned by Philips and probably Peraza whenever Philips decides he wants to move on. Center Field has Hamilton in it. He could conceivably push Scheblar in right or Suarez at 3rd. He is at least listed on the depth chart at SS and 2nd (3rd for both). The reds are still bad so if he gets a chance to play he will probably still run. But I don't know where that chance will emerge at. I could see Peraza at SS and Alcantra at 2nd, but then what do the Reds do with Dilson Herrera? And Nick Senzel is charging hard in the minors at 3rd. So maybe utl is his only shot. And I think that is more reasonable now. He is older and has actually been used as a utl guy in the minors over the last two years. This isn't really all that different of a situation from Hernandez. I am interested if playing time emerges, but I don't know if or when it will. In some leagues this situation might be worth a shot. In many, ok most, it probably isn't.

So the player comp. I told you I have one for Hernandez, and I have one for Alcantra too. I don't love player comps because they get lazy. Often people see a player at a specific position on a specific team and look for a player at that same position on that same team. This isn't just a baseball problem. I loved the Jared Goff to Aaron Rodgers comps that were out there pre draft. But I have a comp for these two guys because I think it is useful to envision their value to your team. This comp is based purely off of the bat, fielding and position do not equate. This is about fantasy right? Who cares about defense. Don't play in those leagues. OK. So the player comp. Drum roll please......Ben Zobrist! Ugh. I hate this player comp. It was already done for Alcantra and Zobrist is boring and overrated. Ahhh, but wait. Not current Ben Zobrist but 2008-10 Ben Zobrist. 

So Zobrist came up in 2006, between 06 and 07 he had 56 hits, 3 hr, 4 sbs (and 3 CS) in just over 300 PA. Yeah. That's not great. But in 08, at age 27, he came up and hit for some power. And in 09 he hit for more power and ran a little bit. I probably should have picked my comp player a little better. Zobrist does not have the wheels either of these players have. He has a season high of 24 sbs and a 162 game avg of 13. But I think his power is in line or slightly above both, probably sitting  in the teens if they played all year. So if you think of young Zobrist with a hr or two less power and maybe a few  (or more) steals....Yeah I will work on my comps. 

Neither of these players need to be owned today in the vast majority of leagues. Probably more of an "add to the watch list" type of player. But if either gets a shot at playing time I would be very intrigued. Jonathan Villar was the other player I thought about comping them too. He just seemed a little to high level. Like, who ever gives any credit to a comp to Trout, or Jeter or Ortiz? Well, who ever believes a comp to the most recent breakout candidate? But really that's probably closer to the skill set of both of these players. Super fast. Athletic. Some pop but more speed. Look, only 1800 words. Jeez.