Predictions For The Best MLB Free Agents in the 2016-17 Class
Now that the 2016 season has ended, not to mention in the most thrilling and dramatic way possible, we must turn out heads towards the endless well of possibility that is the 2017 season. With how vital roster and personnel decisions, as the 2016 Chicago Cubs proved, seasons are often won and lost in the winter with an executive and a player over a steak dinner. Though the number of "game changers" in this class is much smaller than in years past, important cogs for championship caliber teams are out there. Here are predictions for 5 of those cogs.
#1: Yoenis Cespedes, OF, New York Mets
2016 Stats: .280 BA, 31 HR, 86 RBI, 2.9 WAR
Prediction: New York Mets, 4 years, $100 Million
The best hitter on the market, Cespedes has almost singlehandedly carried the offense in Queens for a year and a half. The Mets' electric starting pitchers were bit by the injury bug last year, and their anemic offense almost cost them a playoff spot. Their best hitter was Neil Walker, who had a career year and is also a free agent. Jay Bruce struggled, Curtis Granderson failed to crack 60 RBIs, and bellwether 3rd baseman David Wright barely saw the field. For this reason, the Mets have to and will break the bank to keep the Cuban slugger in New York. Cespedes' unrivaled throwing arm and propensity to get on base are fantastic bonuses to go along with one of the best pure hitting bats in MLB.
#2: Kenley Jansen, RP, Los Angeles Dodgers
2016 Stats: 3-2, 1.83 ERA, 47 saves, 0.67 WHIP, 104 strikeouts, 2.5 WAR
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers, 5 years, $90 million
Jansen's transition from minor league catcher to dominating closer is about to make him a very rich man. Jansen and his unhittable 96 mph cutter will probably remain in Dodger Blue. The Dodgers' bullpen, like the Mets lineup, lacks a true difference maker, as was shown in their NLCS loss to the Cubs. Should Jansen leave, the Dodgers would likely have to make Pedro Baez the closer, and every Dodgers fan reading this knows what a bad idea that is. Even if they must overpay, Andrew Friedman has to realize he can't let Jansen get away.
#3: Rich Hill, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
2016 Stats: 12-5, 2.12 ERA, 110.1 IP, 1.00 WHIP, 129 strikeouts, 4.1 WAR
Prediction: Cleveland Indians, 3 years, 36 million
Hill is one of the toughest free agency nuts to crack in recent memory. A largely forgettable pitcher who had to claw and scrape every year just to make the majors, Hill reinvented himself with a dominant curveball and became a vital part of the Dodger rotation. The Dodgers will likely let him go, as Andrew Friedman has shown a propensity for trying to move on from older players dating back to his days in Tampa Bay. The Dodgers can absorb this loss, as, when healthy, their starting rotation is among the best in baseball. The American League Champion Indians, on the other hand, need another starter besides Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco. Hill would give them a 1-2-3 combination that would be tough to match in the AL.
#4: Edwin Encarnacion, 1B/DH, Toronto Blue Jays
2016 Stats: .263 BA, 42 HR, 127 RBI, 3.7 WAR
Prediction: Texas Rangers, 4 years, 120 million
Encarnacion was certainly swinging a hot bat in 2016, as his 42 home runs and 127 RBIs were both near the top of the league. Though his status as a defensive liability certainly limits the amount of money he will get in free agency, he is as good a designated hitter as there is in baseball. For that reason, the Rangers will pony up for him. The great Prince Fielder has left, and his (literally) huge hole in the lineup, and the optimal replacement would be someone with unrivaled pure power in this class. For a team who looks like they are a piece away, Encarnacion could be that piece.
#5: Aroldis Chapman, RP, Chicago Cubs
Stats: 4-1, 1.55 ERA, 36 saves, 90 strikeouts, 2.5 WAR
Prediction: New York Yankees, 4 years, 95 million
The Yankees experiment wherein Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller, and Aroldis Chapman would close out games was a smashing success, as the Yankees lost only once when all 3 pitched in the same game. The Yankees-Cubs trade that sent Chapman to the South Side seems like a win-win for both sides, as the Yankees pried Gleyber Torres away from the Cubs in exchange for the closer who helped the Cubs break their infamous 108 year championship drought. Resigning with the Yankees would help make that trade look even better for Brian Cashman. As a team without a dominant starting pitcher not named Masahiro Tanaka, the Yankees need a great bullpen to achieve competency, and, outside of Betances and Tyler Clippard, not one member of that bullpen has the look of a viable MLB pitcher. Bullpen help is a must this offseason, and Chapman would be among the biggest fish they could reel in.
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