Pick 6: NFL Week 12
Week 11 was a great week of football. Out of 13 total games, 11 of them were won by one score. Included in those 11 games were a couple major upsets in Lions over Panthers and Broncos over Chargers, Lamar Jackson's first win in his first start, and the unbelievable Chiefs-Rams shootout of the century.
In case you somehow haven't heard, that L.A. game on Monday night was the 3rd highest scoring game in NFL history. It was also the first time that two teams scored 50+ points in the same game. Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff combined for 891 yards and 10 TD's. It was arguably the greatest regular season game of all time.
In more upsetting news, 13-year veteran Alex Smith suffered a broken Tibia and Fibula in a loss to Houston. The injury is eerily similar to that of Joe Theismann. It was 33 years earlier to the day that Theismann suffered the very same injury. Both in Washington, near the 40-yard line, and the final scores of both games were the same. Theismann was attending that game, and only he could truly sympathize with Smith in that moment.
Getting back to football, we have another good week of games. The week is filled with divisional meetings, as well as, of course, Thanksgiving football. All three Thursday games will be featured this week. Starting with the 11:30 am time slot.
Bears vs Lions
Just 11 days after their first meeting of the year, the NFC North rivals will face off in a classic Thanksgiving day game at 11:30 am. The Bears won decisively in that first game. The Lions were outmatched in nearly facet of the game. The only area they seemed to have the upper hand was special teams, which isn't what you would expect from a team that just fired their special teams coordinator the previous Monday. A few garbage time TD's made gave the appearance of a contest, but there was none to be found at Soldier Field that Sunday. However, this time around could be quite the opposite.
The Chicago Bears have been one of the league's biggest surprise teams. They have proven that they are one of the top contenders in the league. Unfortunately, that success comes with a price. As you probably know, the Bears had last Sunday's matchup against Minnesota flexed from noon to 7:20 pm. Although it's got to be a great feeling to know that the league wants you in the prime time slots to draw in viewers, this puts them in a rough position for their Detroit trip. A normal Thursday game is hard enough to deal with. An 11:30 am start is even worse. A late night flight on Sunday is the last thing they need. Meanwhile, the Lions have been right at home over a week. Even worse, Mitchell Trubisky is doubtful, which means Chase Daniel will most likely get the start. I see an upset coming.
Lions win, 23-17
Redskins vs Cowboys
Before last Sunday, there was little reason to get excited about for this game. The Redskins looked to be running away with the division, and the Cowboys seemed to be in a deep hole. But after following up a win in Philly with another in Atlanta, they've gotten back to .500, and they have a chance to turn this season around. After Washington's loss to Houston, and the even bigger loss of Alex Smith, the division feels very much in reach for the Cowboys. A win here would tie them up with the Redskins and put Dallas in pretty good position to take the East.
This game, as well as Washington's season, will be won or lost by the performance of Colt McCoy. Both teams are top 5 in scoring defense, and both have solid run games. That's where their strength lies. Neither of them rely too heavily on their passers. But this week, they will be the difference-makers. I believe this game will come down to which QB performs best. Prescott v McCoy isn't exactly a marquee matchup, but it's an interesting one. Both have something to prove right now. This is their time to show everyone that they can lead a team to success.
I'm sure this sounds weird, but I actually like McCoy in this situation. The 8-year vet with only 25 career starts looked fairly sharp in the 2nd half on Sunday. With limited game plan time and little tape to go off of, McCoy could present a threat to the Dallas defense. I think he'll have success early on, and the defense behind him will do the rest from there. It could be a Thanksgiving to remember in the McCoy household.
Redskins win, 20-16
Falcons vs Saints
With the Falcons' season slipping away, this game doesn't carry the same weight on the playoff picture that we would have thought before the year started. The way Atlanta is playing, it would take a miracle to get them to January. However, this game still means something to the Falcons. A win over a division rival always feels good, especially when that rival is playing at a level that the Saints are. Walking out of the Superdome with that win on Thanksgiving would make for a great moment in an otherwise disappointing year, barring that aforementioned miracle.
That win, of course, will not come easy. The Saints have been playing out of their mind since a fluke loss in the season opener. They have put up 40+ in six of their ten games, including each of their last three. The Saints also broke 40 in Atlanta back in week 3, but the Falcons gave them a run for the money in a 43-37 loss. With both team's passing defenses among the worst in the game and great passer's on each sideline, it sure seems like we'll get another thrilling shootout. In those types of games, it only takes one mistake to swing the game in either team's favor. I don't think Atlanta will pull off the upset, but you can't rule them out this Thursday. It should be a good one.
Saints win 38-34
Seahawks vs Panthers
The NFC wild card race is wide open, and this game could loom large in the final cut. I think it's safe to say that a division title is out of reach for these two with the Saints and Rams showing no signs of slowing down. So the wild card is likely their only shot. The Panthers have been firmly in playoff position all year, but a pair of road losses now has them on the bubble. A Seattle win would tie the two of them, and give Seattle the tie-breaker. With multiple teams creeping close behind, things could get bad real quick for the loser of this game.
That's the stage that is set for a duel between Russell Wilson and Cam Newton. They are two of the most athletically gifted QB's in the game, and they can put the whole team on their back when they're at their best. They could go back and forth all day, making big play after big play. This could be a treat.
I think Wilson's consistency and the better defense behind him will deliver Carolina their first home loss of 2018. If that holds true, the Seahawks could have a cakewalk into the postseason with a favorable finishing schedule ahead. The Panthers on the other hand will have serious work to put in to make the season worthwhile.
Seahawks win, 28-26
Packers vs Vikings
The NFC North is still very much up for grabs. Chicago's win over the Vikings gives the Bears the biggest lead anyone's had in this division to this point, but Minnesota and Green Bay are still within striking distance. The Packers may be below .500, but with the easiest remaining schedule in the NFL, they could still pull off a late-season comeback and come out on top. Their two toughest games are this one and the one in Chicago in week 15. If they can take both of those, they could very well win the other four and nearly guarantee themselves a playoff spot. Minnesota has a much tougher finishing schedule, but they have a team capable of handling it. But a loss on Sunday could seemingly put the division title out of reach for either side. It doesn't get much bigger than this in the regular season.
Through 11 weeks of football, the Packers are still yet to claim a road win, while at Lambeau, they are 4-0-1. That is largely due to a very lopsided schedule. Most of their toughest opponents have happened to have the home-field advantage for their meeting with Green Bay. However, that is still a huge issue. How do you go 0-5 on the road with Aaron Rodgers under center? I'll tell you how. This defense has been terrible on the road. They have allowed 27 or more points in every road game thus far. That is unacceptable. If that trend continues into this Sunday, so will the road losing streak. You can't rely on Rodgers, with limited offensive talented around, to score 30+ on the road. One day, Green Bay will figure out that they can't just throw out Rodgers onto the field with no help and expect wins. Rodgers will probably be retired by then. This could be the start of a two horse race in the North for the years to come.
Vikings win, 30-21
Titans vs Texans
The Texans have been one of the hottest teams in the game. After a 0-3 start, Houston is now on a 7-game winning streak. Sure, they haven't beaten great teams, but that many wins in a row is impressive regardless. They are adequate at worst in just about every aspect of the game. They aren't the flashiest team around, but they get the job done.
The Texans are clearly the better team here, but they can't underestimate Tennessee. The Titans are very hit or miss. They have some real bad games to mediocre teams, but have also gave some great teams a run for their money, including the Texans. Their offense, for the most part, has been poor both on the ground and through the air. Losing Mariota this week won't help, but it isn't the end of the world. Mariota has been one of the worst starting QB's in the league this year, so they aren't losing much. Maybe some change will be good for them. The real reason they are a threat is due to the defense. Any team that allows less than 20 points per game presents a threat.
Do I think the Titans will win? Not really. Should the Texans fear the Titans. Absolutely. When they are on their game, especially the defense, they can beat almost anyone. If the Texans make a few mistakes, Tennessee could be right there to capitalize and sneak away with a win.
Texans win, 20-14
