Pick 6: NFL Week 13
Five weeks remain before the real game begins. For some teams, the postseason seems inevitable, and seeding is all they are working towards. For others, one slip could put January out of reach. A lot can change in five weeks. A lot can change in one game. Every win, every score, every yard is meaningful in extending seasons just a little bit longer. When losing isn't an option, we find out who everyone really is. With each passing week, more lines will be drawn. No game is without meaning. This is football at it's best.
These six games have been chosen mostly for the weight they carry in the playoff race. The larger the stakes, the better the games tend to be. I think that's enough buildup. Let's get into the games.
Saints vs Cowboys
The Cowboys have received new life in their season. After beating Washington, they are tied at the top of the East. With Colt McCoy leading the Redskins the rest of the year, Dallas now has a great chance at taking the division. But of course, they have to keep winning. The next two games in particular will be crucial in their journey. Next week will be against the struggling Eagles. Philadelphia has not threatened their division rivals all year, but they can't be underestimated. Dallas can't lose that game and risk them coming back into the picture. But before that, they take on the most dominant team in the NFL.
I don't need to tell you how good the Saints are, but I'm going to do it anyway. Drew Brees is playing the best football of his Canton-bound career. Through 11 games, Brees has an astounding 127.3 passer rating, 76.4 completion rate, and only 2 INT's. 39-year-old guys aren't suppose to play like that, but he is, and it's a joy to watch. Behind him is one of the league's best backfields as well, averaging 133 yards per game. Even the defense is doing their part. New Orleans holds the best rushing defense in the game, and although 23.3 points allowed per game isn't fantastic, it is plenty good enough to allow the offense to win games. This is a special football team, and it's hard to see anyone beating them soon.
But could the Cowboys possibly be the team to end the 10-game winning streak? It wouldn't be completely unreasonable to think so. With the addition of Amari Cooper, they appear to be a legitimate playoff-caliber team. In the 7 games prior to the trade, Prescott had a passer rating of 87.4. Since then, it's up to 102.4, and they've played some good defenses in that span. This upgrade in the passing game also makes life easier for Ezekiel Elliott who was already running better than just about anybody. The unsung heroes of this team though are all the defensive players that are allowing under 20 points per game.
As good as the Cowboys look, the Saints are just so much better. Zeke should struggle to get going against this defense, which is bad news for Dallas. The Cowboys may slow down the Saints' explosive offense, but they cannot stop them. Dallas may put up a fight in their home stadium, but a win feels far out of reach.
Saints win, 27-19
Broncos vs Bengals
With five weeks left to play, it appears that there's really only one spot undetermined in the AFC playoff. Seeding may change between the top five teams, but it's hard to see any of them getting bumped out at this point. The Broncos and Bengals are two of six teams in the conference with either 5 or 6 wins, but most likely only one of those teams will make the cut. The odds of actually winning aren't good for the team that takes the spot, but you know they want it nonetheless.
A couple weeks ago, I wouldn't have given Denver a chance to make the postseason. Recovering from a 3-6 record takes a level of play that I didn't believe they were capable of. But after beating the Chargers and Steelers in back-to-back weeks, they've changed my mind. With a pretty favorable schedule ahead, they've got a real shot.
Other than the Chargers in week 17, Cincinnati is the Broncos biggest challenge, which shows how favorable their schedule is from here on out. The Bengals' season has been quite the opposite from Denver. They started out looking prepped for a fight for the North division. They scored 30+ four times in their first five games, and they won all such games. In the following six games, the offense has disappeared, and so have the wins. Only once have reached the 30 point mark in those last six, and that has been their only win of the bunch. That one game was also against the worst defense in the NFL. Now with Andy Dalton going on IR, it appears their offense will stay dormant. Unless Jeff Driskel turns out to be a star.
Everything is pointing in Denver's favor, and I don't see how it could go the other way.
Broncos win, 23-13
Ravens vs Falcons
The Ravens have crawled their way back into playoff position. After Flacco got hurt, it seemed like any chance they had may have slipped away. However, Lamar Jackson has stepped right in and led this team to two wins in his first two starts. His performance has been far from flawless, but he is getting the job done, and he's making a difficult decision for John Harbaugh when Flacco is ready. It's hard for me to see long-term success for Jackson. In the NFL, run-happy QB's don't tend to last. Eventually, teams figure you out, and you have to be able to beat teams with your arm and your mind. Until I see him do that, I wouldn't put much faith in him. That being said, I think he will do fine for the time being. Until the league finds the secret to stopping him, Baltimore can win games with the Lamar Jackson.
This week the Ravens fly to Atlanta. The Falcons were a team that seemed to have so much potential, but they have ran the team into the ground. The defense is just as bad as it's been for years. The offense appears good on the surface, but this is a team that can't score in the redzone to save their life. Their flaws will be on full display this Sunday. A fast, dynamic offense could tear them apart, and one of the league's best defenses could hold them to a whole lot of field goals.
Ravens win, 27-12
Vikings vs Patriots
Last season, Minnesota was one win away from meeting the Patriots in the Super Bowl. The Vikings had earned a 13-3 record, a #2 seed, and a memorable playoff win over New Orleans before their journey came to an end. Then in the off-season, they upgraded at the QB position, signing Kirk Cousins to replace Case Keenum. Many assumed they would be right back in 2018, bigger and better. Yet, now they find themselves barely hanging on in the the playoff race. They have already surpassed last year's loss total. They are 1.5 games behind Chicago in the divison, and while they're currently in the first wild card spot, they could potentially fall out of the playoff picture with a loss this week. This is still a good football team, but they need to step up their game. They have one of the toughest finishing schedules in the league, and their current level of play won't make it through. This week brings the real test. A win in New England would be a huge boost that the team really needs.
It's easy to forget about the Patriots right now. It's not often that there are so many legitimate contenders other than New England in the AFC. The Patriots don't have the same roster that a bunch of other teams have. They don't have a great running game. Their defense is nothing special. But when they are in their home field with Brady and Belichick on their sideline, no matter who the opponent may be, they seem like clear favorites. Since the beginning of 2007, Tom Brady has only lost at home nine times. That is remarkable! On the other side of the ball is Kirk Cousins who notoriously holds a 4-22 record against teams over .500. I think you can guess who I'm taking in this one.
Patriots win, 27-20
Chargers vs Steelers
If the season ended today, this would be a 1st-round playoff meeting. However, through the first few weeks, you probably didn't think we'd be in this situation. The Steelers started their season 1-2-1. Le'Veon Bell's holdout appeared to be holding the team back, and it was hard to tell if they would ever pick up the pace. The Chargers started their season 1-2. Their early struggles were more to do with a tough starting schedule, playing both the Chiefs and the Rams in the first three weeks. Both responded to those slow starts by going on 6-game winning streaks, which each ended against the Broncos. Now we're here. The two of them look like Super Bowl contenders, and this looks like one of the premier matchups of the regular season.
This should be a great game because the two appear so equal. Both have elite passers, while also having great passing defenses to counteract those QB's. Both normally would have exceptional running games, but Bell's absence and Melvin Gordon's injury leave them pretty average in that respect. The one thing that seems to stand out is ball control. L.A. protects the ball relatively well, while Pittsburgh doesn't seem to understand the importance of the football. The Steelers are 26th in the NFL in turnover differential with -7, the worst of any team in the playoff picture. Turnovers are a big deal. It's amazing to me that a team can even win this many games with such a lack of ball security. I expect that to be the difference in a thrilling Sunday night game.
Chargers win, 24-21
Redskins vs Eagles
The state of the NFC East just keeps getting weirder. After this week, there could be a 3-way tie for 1st place at 6-6. Somebody is going to win this division by default. Going into the year, I'm sure most of you didn't think it would go that way. With the Eagles fresh off of their first Super Bowl win, it's surprising to see them in the position they're in now. A few weeks ago, the Redskins had a strong 5-2 record, and they seemed to be well on their way to a division title. Then, the losses started coming, and so did the Alex Smith injury. In any other divison, they would essentially be over. Lucky for them, they are in the East.
By no stretch of the imagination are these teams playoff-caliber. Not how they are playing right now. The defenses are good, but you need some kind of offensive ability in this league if you want to win. Neither team appears to have that ability. But somewhere deep down inside, the Eagles have some real talent. This is basically the same roster as last year. Why they haven't played like it, I couldn't tell you. I keep waiting for Philly to bounce back, but it just doesn't happen. This is their last chance to do so. I think they can find a little bit of that 2017 magic to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Eagles win, 22-16