Pick 6: NFL Week 14

This past week brought a bundle of surprising upsets. It started on Thursday with Dallas shocking the New Orleans Saints. Sunday continued the trend with Giants over Bears, Buccaneers over Panthers, and Cardinals over Packers. The last game on that list turned out to be the final game in Mike McCarthy's Green Bay career. Many of us saw the firing coming in the near future, but didn't necessarily expect it quite this soon. The focus in Green Bay is now on the off-season.

The Packers playoff hopes aren't officially gone, but the same can't be said for the Jaguars, Jets, Raiders, and 49ers. Those four became the first official eliminations, while the Rams became the first to clinch a spot in the playoff picture. This is when the games really get interesting. Everything matters. Even some random Toilet Bowl game could affect a strength of schedule tie-breaker. Many games will have a playoff atmosphere around them from here on out.

Ravens vs Chiefs

It's the #1 scoring offense against the #1 scoring defense in Arrowhead this Sunday. On top of that, we also have two of the most exciting young QB's in the NFL. And to make it even better, this game has serious playoff implications. A loss could be trouble for either side. A Kansas City loss give the Chargers the chance to tie them at the top of the West. A Baltimore loss allows as many as 4 teams to tie them for the 2nd wild card slot. This one couldn't get much better.

Some may not think it, but the Ravens are a legitimate threat to Kansas City. If any defense can tame the Chiefs' explosive offense, it might be the Ravens. Lamar Jackson and company could also run like crazy on a defense that's allowing 5.1 yards per carry. The Chiefs are a better football team, but I think Baltimore matches up well against them specifically, and they could give Kansas City some trouble.

However, I don't quite see the Chiefs losing. Not just this week, but any week in the near future. I've never seen a team that seems to score at will like they do. They are never out of a game. This is a team that turned the ball over five times and still scored 51 points. This is a special team. Beating them at home appears impossible.

Chiefs win, 31-27

Patriots vs Dolphins

On the surface, this looks like a no-brainer. The Patriots may not be on the same level as some of their previous years, but beating the Dolphins should be a cake walk. Right? Well, history says otherwise.

The Patriots have fared well against the Dolphins at home since Brady and Belichick took over. Extremely well actually. Tom Brady has never lost in New England against them when he played the whole game. However, in Miami, it's a different story. The Patriots with Brady under center are 7-9 in the Dolphins' home stadium, including 3 losses in their last 4 games there. I don't know why, but the city of Miami appears to be their kryptonite. Much greater New England teams have lost on that very field. I won't be surprised if this one does as well.

Dolphins win, 23-20

Colts vs Texans

No other teams this year have rebounded like the Colts and Texans. Houston didn't earn their first win until week 4 in Indianapolis, but they have yet to pick up another loss since that point. The Colts' early struggles lasted all the way through week 6, starting the year 1-5. The Colts then crawled their way above .500 with a 5-game winning streak. An ugly 6-0 loss in Jacksonville last week ended the streak, but one bad game doesn't mean much to me. The division is all but won by Houston, but they are still fighting for seeding. Meanwhile, the Colts are fighting for their season.

Andrew Luck is doing a tremendous job carrying the team on his shoulders, but this week the burden appears too large. The Colts have gotten here by beating mediocre teams at home. Away from Indianapolis, the Colts are 2-4. The only impressive win of their season was in Washington in week 2. With J.J Watt leading one of the most terrifying defenses and Deshaun Watson leading a more than capable offense, Indianapolis just doesn't stack up. The Texans are one of two teams to beat the Colts in Lucas Oil Stadium. I see no reason why they won't complete the season sweep in Houston.

Texans win, 28-19

Eagles vs Cowboys

The NFC East always gets plenty of attention. Some years that attention is undeserved, but that is not the case in 2018. In most other divisions, there have been clear front runners established. Washington appeared to hold that position for a while, but it never felt like it would last. Now with their top two QB's mending broken legs, they are all but out of contention. It's now a race between Dallas and Philly. Every divisional game has been big, but none have stacked up to this. A win for the Cowboys essentially locks up the division title. A win for the Eagles would swing the momentum in their favor.

A few weeks ago, I would have laughed at you if you said the Cowboys were Super Bowl contenders. Now, I would agree. Ever since Amari Cooper landed in Dallas, the offense has come alive. The defense, led by rookie LB Leighton Vander Esch, has been underrated all year. At home, they can beat anyone. Just look at last Thursday's game. They looked bad on the road for much of the year, but they did finally pick up a pair road wins in the last four weeks. The Cowboys may have as good a chance as any to win it all, and the Eagles feel like an easy win for them right now. I've waited all year for Philly to break out and play like they did on their Championship run. With just a few weeks left, it looks like that's not going to happen. Not this year.

Cowboys win, 31-20

Rams vs Bears

The Bears have clearly followed the same success plan as the Rams. Just compare this year's Bears with last year's Rams. Both teams were fresh off disappointing years with an old, conservative head coach and underwhelming play from their rookie QB. Then, they brought in a young, aggressive, offensive head coaches, added a bunch of good receivers, and formed a top 5 defense with a top tier pass rusher. It looks like Chicago is on their way to an unexpected division title, just like the 2017 Rams.

L.A. is one year ahead of Chicago, and they've clearly reached another level. However, I actually like the Bears' chances in this one. A rough loss in New York last week may scare some people off, but not me. It appears Mitchell Trubisky will be set to play this Sunday, which is a much needed boost for the team. You can say what you want about Mitch, but when he's under center in Soldier Field, this is a different team. On a cold night in Chicago, the Bears have some advantages, the most obvious of which being the defense. Somehow, the Rams defense has seen a serious regression from 2017, while the Bears have built the league's best. Cold weather also makes the ground game all the more important. I give the Bears the edge there as well. Yes, Todd Gurley is great, but Chicago has a better power runner with Jordan Howard, as well as quality running from Cohen and Trubisky. The bigger difference though is the Rams poor 5.1 yards allowed per carry compared to the Bears' 3.7.

For those reasons, I believe Chicago will pull the upset. It will be a challenge for sure, but I believe they are up to the task. If they meet in L.A. in the playoffs, then that's a different story. You can call me bias or crazy if you like, but I genuinely believe the Chicago Bears are going to hand the L.A. Rams their 2nd loss of the year.

Bears win, 24-22

Vikings vs Seahawks

Minnesota and Seattle are currently in wild card position, but their leads aren't comfortable. Minnesota is also still in the fight for a division title. They need greatness to keep that hope alive. Seattle's position feels a little safer, but losses will still hurt badly. One of them has to lose. Whichever team that is will be hurting for a while.

This has the makings of a great game under the lights. Cousins and Wilson are having impressive seasons. Each side possesses a solid aerial defense to slow down the passing game, but the QB's should thrive for the most part. Minnesota's strong front should tame Seattle's dynamic running game, while the Vikings' struggling backfield should get a boost from facing a poor Seattle ground defense. The Seahawks do have two big advantages. CenturyLink Field and ball control.

Seattle still remains one of the hardest places to win. It's even harder when the Seahawks dominant the turnover game. Seattle's 9 giveaways are the fewest in the NFL. Their turnover differential of +11 is matched only by the Bears and the Rams. The Vikings on the other hand are not so great in this category. Minnesota has turned the ball over twice as often as Seattle, and their differential of +1 puts them just barely into the bottom half of the league in that stat. It's quite the challenge winning in such a hostile environment when you can't control the football.

Seahawks win, 30-24