Pick 6: NFL Week 15
Only three weeks of regular season football remain. At this point, most of the playoff bracket is taking shape. Nine teams have a 99% chance or greater to make January football. A bunch of teams are scratching and clawing for the last few spots. These last few weeks, everybody has something to play for. Some are trying to punch their ticket to the playoffs. Those who already have are playing for higher seeding. Other teams are fighting for dignity, though they may rather take a higher draft pick. These six games are mostly chosen for the impact they'll have on the playoff picture. Every game carries weight.
Chargers vs Chiefs
The Chiefs beat the Chargers in week 1 to take 1st place in the West. They have spent every day since in that spot. Not only that, they've been the most dominant team in the whole AFC, holding the #1 spot in the conference the entire season. But as great as they have been, the Chargers are right on their tail. They could potentially swoop in and take the division, as well as the #1 seed, right at the last moment. An L.A. win would tie them up with two games to play. The Chiefs hold the divisional record tie-breaker. So a little help from Seattle or Oakland will also be necessary for the Chargers to take the division. That also means the Chiefs can clinch the title with a win this Thursday. The stakes are about as high as they come.
Personally, I think the Chargers are going to keep their division title hopes alive. When they played in week 1, Mahomes was an unknown. No one really knew what this offense would be or how to stop them. The Chargers now have first-hand experience with the rookie-led offense, and they have plenty of film on them. They also have Joey Bosa. Bosa was absent until week 11 with a foot injury. I believe L.A.'s defense will present just as much of a threat as Baltimore's, which held them to 24 points in regulation last week, the fewest of the Chiefs' season. Opposing offenses can have a hard time in Arrowhead, even with an average KC defense, but a veteran like Philip Rivers can get the job done. Things could get real interesting in the final two weeks.
Chargers win, 28-23
Cowboys vs Colts
Five weeks ago, Dallas and Indianapolis each stood at 3-5, and the playoffs appeared unreachable. Now, not so much. The Cowboys' 5-game winning streak has put them atop the NFC East with a 99% chance of making the postseason. The Colts have a little more work to do, but winning 4 of their last 5 has given them new life. The two of these teams have been among the hottest in the game. When teams like them meet, great things tend to happen.
This game might not mean a whole lot to Dallas, but it means everything for the Colts. A loss here would all but end their dreams at a playoff appearance. If Andrew Luck is really a great QB, this is a game he has to win. This is what he's here for. They need to win this week, and he has no excuse for failure in this one. Dallas hasn't given up many points this year, but opposing passers have fared pretty well. The Dallas defense ranks 22nd in opponents passer rating, t-23rd in interceptions, and 29th in opponents completion percentage. Luck should be able to do some work this week, especially with the game on their turf. I don't usually go with teams just because of their QB, but in this situation, I think Luck could carry his injury-plagued team to victory. He has done that all year after all.
Colts win, 31-27
Packers vs Bears
For the first time in a while, the Chicago Bears are commanding the NFC North. With 1 win or 1 Minnesota loss, the Bears will clinch the division title. Last week's win over the Rams has officially made them legitimate Super Bowl contenders. But despite all this success, many Bear fans will not be satisfied with the season if it does not include a win over their most hated rival.
The Green Bay Packers have gotten the better of the Bears for quite some time. Since the start of 2009, Chicago has won only 3 of their 20 meetings with the Packers, including an NFC Championship in 2011. Their most recent win came in 2015. Their most recent win in Soldier Field was all the way back in 2010. In that span of time, Green Bay has won the division 5 times and took home the Lombardi trophy once. The Bears have had 1 division title and no Super Bowl appearances. The Bears and their fans have been stepped on for far too long, and this is their chance to reverse the roles.
This game won't be easy. Any time Rodgers is over on the other sideline, a win is not easy. Division games in general are typically not as easy as they may seem. However, this feels like the Chicago team that will finally turn the tides of this rivalry. Not just this week or this year, but for the years to come. We saw them dominate in Lambeau in the first half in week 1. Although that game ended in a way that the team and fans alike would like to forget, that game first showed us how good this team can be. The Bears have been great on their home field this season, and I don't expect their final home game of the regular season to be an exception.
Bears win, 26-20
Dolphins vs Vikings
Miami's season was kept alive by one of the greatest miracles ever seen in an NFL game. If they want to slide into the playoff picture, they might need a couple more of those. I'm unsure how they've gotten this close to be honest. Their defense started well, but for most of the year has looked mediocre, if that. Their offense is limited with a lack of weapons and no one better than Ryan Tannehill to throw the ball. The only thing they've had going for them is their home turf. At Hard Rock Stadium, the Dolphins are 6-1, including wins over Chicago and New England. Away from home, they're 1-5 and average only 17 points per game. Unfortunately for them, they're on the road this week, as well as week 17.
The Vikings certainly haven't met expectations. They've already doubled last season's loss total, and haven't earned a single win against a team over .500. That's something Kirk Cousins has become known for. Cousins is now 4-24 against teams with winning records. Minnesota has played two ugly games in a row, and they do not slightly resemble a playoff team. However, it looks like that's where they're going to end up. They should win this week against a poor road team. They should win in Detroit. And by the time Chicago comes to town, the Bears may have nothing to play for, and rest some starters. I don't want to see Minnesota make the cut and inevitably leave shortly after, but it looks like that's what we're going to get.
Vikings win, 24-17
Patriots vs Steelers
No two NFL teams have had as much success in this century than the Patriots and Steelers. New England of course has brought home five Lombardi trophies, as well as making three other appearances. The Steelers have "only" won two with one other trip to the big game. Both have seemed to be perennial playoff fixtures in the AFC. As a result of them winning their respective divisions so often, they have met quite often in the regular season, and also a couple times in the playoffs. Brady and Roethlisberger have met 10 times in total. So they are quite familiar with each other.
In these past meetings, Tom Brady and the Patriots have dominated time and time again. Brady is 8-2 against the Roethlisberger-led Steelers. He has achieved a 100+ passer rating in 7 of those 10 games, including both playoff games. Roethlisberger achieved the same feat just twice, coming in the first and most recent meetings between the two. I expect this dominance to continue this Sunday. Let's just hope the NFL rulebook doesn't ruin a good game like last time.
Patriots win, 28-24
Saints vs Panthers
Carolina's season has seemed to slip away in record time. Just a few short weeks ago, the Panthers had rolled to a 6-2 record. They were looking to challenge New Orleans for the South, and even if they couldn't get the division title, a postseason appearance of some sort seemed inevitable. After a 5-game skid, they're below .500 and out of wild card position. To be fair, four of the five games were on road, but it is still unacceptable. With the Saints up this week, as well as the season finale, postseason hopes are bleak.
Maybe coming back home will reignite the team. The Panthers are 5-1 on their own turf with their one loss being a narrow one to a formidable Seattle team. However, even at their best, I really don't think they compare to the Saints. New Orleans hasn't looked nearly as dominant in the last couple games, but I wouldn't bet on another mediocre performance from this team.
Saints win, 38-24
