Pick 6: NFL Week 4
The past week of the NFL season was littered with headlines. Last Thursday, the Browns snapped a 19-game winless streak when their 1st overall pick, Baker Mayfield, led a comeback over the Jets. On Sunday at noon, another rookie, Josh Rosen, made his debut when the Cardinals benched Sam Bradford in the final minutes. Patrick Mahomes also continued his improbable success, while in that same game, Jimmy Garoppolo's season came to an end with a torn ACL. Meanwhile, Buffalo shocked the world with a 27-6 upset win in Minnesota, where they were 16.5 point underdogs. Clay Mathews was also in the news with another controversial roughing the passer call. Later that night, Matt Patricia earned his first win in an upset over his former mentor, Bill Belichick. And lastly, on Monday night, the Steelers finally found the win column. Ryan Fitzpatrick had yet another 400+ yard game, but 3 INT's made his performance a little less magical than the two previous outings.
That's a whole lot of news for one week of football. I can't promise another week as full as that for the rest of the year. However, there is no such thing as a dull week in the NFL. This week's games don't look like much, but sometimes those weeks end up being the craziest. Let's jump in and pick 6.
Vikings vs Rams
One of the most anticipated games of the year. Many people had these two as the two best teams in the NFL before the season started. The Rams have lived up to the hype. The Vikings have underachieved. A tie with Green Bay and an ugly loss to Buffalo have left them at 1-1-1. However, I don't think those games are an indication of who they really are. Those games have now put a chip on their shoulder. They are hungry for a win. Getting one in L.A. would certainly satisfy them.
The Rams do have the better roster, but injuries to Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters could be devastating, especially when they are about to face Diggs and Thielen in this game. Peters may play, but the injury could still affect his play. Those injuries may keep Minnesota in the game.
The Vikings do have some obstacles of their own. One is the short rest. Yes, the Rams are playing on short rest as well, but they don't have to travel from Minnesota in that short window. News also broke about Everson Griffen concerning his mental health. Griffen is undergoing a mental evaluation, and it is unclear what that means for him and the team moving forward.
This is a huge test for both of these teams. Both have some obstacles to overcome, and those obstacles popped up at a very inopportune time. I have much more faith in the Rams to pass this test, but it won't be in the same flying colors as there previous wins.
Rams win, 26-23
Buccaneers vs Bears
Two very unlikely division leaders through three games. This game looks a lot more interesting now than it did about a month ago. Before Khalil Mack found his way to Chicago, no one had high hopes for this team's 2018 season. Mack has made this defense one of the most terrifying in all the league, and that goes a long way. Before Fitzpatrick started dropping bombs in Week 1, no one considered the Bucs a contender. Now they are both here trying to show the rest of the league that they really mean business. Starting 3-1 and keeping a division lead through the first quarter of the season would be a pretty big deal for either team.
This game will largely be decided with Fitzpatrick vs the Bears' pass rush. These are the two biggest strengths of each team, and whoever wins that matchup will likely win the game. Scoring hasn't really been the Bears' forte, but they have found ways to score 16 or more every game. That isn't much, but that can win quite a few games with this defense to back them up. I'm expecting somewhere between 16 and 24 just like the other games. The question will be if Fitzpatrick and the rest of his offense can top that. Frankly, I'm not sure that they can.
Tampa's offense had looked real good, but a good pass rush can change that in a hurry. Last week the faced a pretty good one with the Steelers, and as a result, Fitzpatrick's performance dropped. Yes, he still threw for over 400 yards, but three picks costed them big time. Facing the Bears could bring him back to the old Fitzpatrick we used to know.
Bears win, 20-17
Dolphins vs Patriots
After three weeks, the Dolphins remain one of three undefeated teams. While they haven't dominated quite like the Chiefs or the Rams, they are still 3-0, and they are significantly exceeding expectations. I think we all forgot how much better they are with Tannehill under center. In his last 11 games, Tannehill is 10-1 with a passer rating of 105.4 in that stretch. It's amazing what an offensive head coach can do to a QB. They also have a solid backfield with veteran Frank Gore and rookie Kenyan Drake. The defense has been decent. Only 17.3 points per game thus far, and their tied for 2nd in takeaways with 8. They do give up a lot of passing yards though.
The Patriots could finally be losing it. The Patriots have averaged just 300 total yards and 19 points per game. They've been a revolving door on defense, allowing over 400 yards per game, 25.7 points per game, and only sacked the QB 4 times. People have been anticipating the end of the dynasty, and it just may be upon us.
A Dolphins win would put them in incredible position. With Buffalo and New York having tough matchups, a win could put them 3 games up after 4 weeks. It would also leave the Patriots in a huge hole to climb out of. But can the Dolphins really win in New England? Well, based off past performances, it's not likely. The Dolphins have never beat Brady in New England. Never. Not once. They've only won in New England twice since Brady took over. The first time was week 17 in the 2005 season, and Brady was benched for rest for the majority of the game. Technically, Brady gets the loss on that one, but I don't count it. The other was in 2008 when Brady missed the whole season. I can't see Miami changing that statistic this time. They are good and may be a playoff team, but New England has their number. Brady will have a bounce back day against secondary, and the Pats will win a close one
Patriots win, 24-22
Browns vs Raiders
Baker Mayfield is set to make his first NFL start after he delivered the Browns first win in 635 days in relief for an injured Tyrod Taylor. Mayfield looked incredibly poised for a rookie QB, and the whole energy around the team shifted when he took the field. If Baker is the real deal, they can win some games with their defense behind him.
The Raiders have been terrible under Gruden so far. The running game is average, Derek Carr has been good, not great, and the defense is hurting without Mack. The Raiders have just 3 sacks (worst in the league), 1 fumble forced, 0 recovered fumbles, and 1 INT. To put that in perspective, Mack himself has 4 sacks, 3 fumbles forced, 2 fumble recoveries, and 1 INT. Oakland's defense wouldn't be half bad if Mack was still here, and may have been 2-1 instead of 0-3 as well.
I can't believe I'm saying this, but Cleveland should win this game. Mayfield will have all day to throw the ball, and should have another nice game. Carr won't have the same luxury. The Browns dominate the turnover department, while that is a huge weakness for the Raiders. Cleveland has a +9 turnover differential (1st in the NFL), and Oakland has -4 ( t-last in the NFL). Congratulations Oakland, you are now outmatched by the Cleveland Browns.
Browns win, 27-17
Seahawks vs Cardinals
Another rookie QB, Josh Rosen, will make his first NFL start this Sunday. Rosen got some action in week 3 when Arizona benched starter Sam Bradford in a one score game with under 5 minutes to play. Oh yeah, and they were playing against one of the best defenses in the NFL. So, no pressure or anything. Rosen looked decent for a bit, before he would throw a pick that would essentially seal the game. It's hard to take much from that appearance when so much was going against him. I'm looking forward to seeing how he fares in his first full game.
Unfortunately for Rosen, he doesn't have as much to work with in his rookie campaign as Baker Mayfield does. Which is weird considering the Cardinals won eight more games than Cleveland last year. Arizona ranks dead last in points and yards gained by a wide margin. Arizona has 571 total yards and 20 points. The next lowest in each stat is 738 and 41. Simply putting in Rosen isn't going to turn around this abysmal offense. The Cardinals have a a couple stars on defense with Chandler Jones and Patrick Peterson, but that's about it.
Seattle doesn't present a huge challenge, but they are average. That's plenty good enough to beat Arizona. Seattle averages more points per game than the Cardinals have scored on the season. Seattle's defense is a far cry from what it used to be, but they are t-1st in INT's and they don't have an overwhelming weakness. This game is only interesting because of a rookie starting.
Seahawks win, 26-10
Ravens vs Steelers
One of the best rivalries in sports. The Steelers have won the last 3 meetings, including the highest scoring in the history of the rivalry. The Ravens are now looking to sway momentum back in their favor. Le'Veon Bell's continued absence is an advantage for Baltimore. Pittsburgh's offense has done decent without Bell in the backfield, but they also haven't had much defenses opposing them. The Ravens have maintained a solid defense. It isn't feared like it used to be, but it's still among the best in football. However, Roethlisberger has a history of great performances against them in Heinz Field. Ben has posted a passer ratings above 99 in each of his last 4 home games against the Ravens. That will be tougher to accomplish without Bell, but I believe in him to continue the success.
Flacco has always fared well in Heinz Field, but has never had a game like Roethlisberger has had in recent meetings there. With little running game to speak of for either side, Roethlisberger outplaying Flacco should be the difference to edge out their 2nd win of the year.
Steelers win, 24-20
