Pick 6: NFL Week 9

We are now half way through the 2018 NFL season. This is when a lot of games, especially within each division, start to feel really big. Each and every win feels just a little greater, while every loss feels devastating. There's a whole lot of teams on the bubble that are in desperate need for some wins. And desperation is a key ingredient in great football games.

Desperation also leads to mid-season trades, which there were plenty of just before the deadline on October 30th. Five trades made headlines on the last available day. These were Demaryius Thomas to Houston, Golden Tate to Philadelphia, Dante Fowler, Jr to L.A. (Rams), Haha Clinton-Dix to Washington, and Ty Montgomery to Baltimore. These trades just show how the playoff spots are really up for grabs. It's rare to see this many trades in the NFL, but there are so many teams competing for spots in January that some of them had to take a chance and pounce to separate themselves from the crowd. Only time will tell if they will pay off.

Now, on to week 9. Let's pick 6.

Lions vs Vikings

In the NFC North, 1 win separates the 1st-place Chicago Bears and the 4th-place Detroit Lions. Only 3 of the 12 divisional games have been played, which means there could be major shakeups throughout the remainder of the season. Each of these divisional games carries tremendous consequences in a race like this.

The Lions have been a bit of a mystery to me this year. They won arguably their 3 hardest matchups of their season so far, including wins over Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. However, they also lost all of the rest of their contests. This is polar opposite from last year where, for the most part, they won when you thought they should win and lost when you thought they should lose. Last year they also dominated the division, going 5-1. The question is whether that trend will continue or if that will be much the opposite as well. If they play their rivals like they did last season, they have a great chance to win the North.

In my opinion, the Lions made a misstep in trading Golden Tate this past Tuesday. Tate was the best receiver they had, and they don't have many other playmakers to fill the gap. I think that hurts their chances down the stretch. This was already a tough matchup on the road, and the trade makes it even harder. Minnesota's defense has looked better in recent games, and they should fare well against an average Lions' offense. Detroit's solid secondary will slow down a hot Vikings offense, but it won't be enough.

Vikings win, 24-17

Falcons vs Redskins

The story of each of these teams couldn't be a whole lot different. The Redskins have made their way to the top of a normally tough NFC East with a 5-2 record. They have done this largely through a solid defensive play, as well as some help from a relatively easy schedule. They lack playmakers on offense, but the experience of the aging stars of Alex Smith and Adrian Peterson has gotten the job done.

The Falcons have found themselves in a hole for the entire season thus far, partially do to a brutal schedule. At 3-4, Atlanta is multiple games behind both New Orleans and Carolina. They, as always, are an offensive led team. There are a bunch of better offenses out there, but the Falcons are a tough opponent for any defense. Unfortunately, they are always getting dragged down by their revolving door of a defense, which is allowing 30 points per game.

Their methods of success may be very different, but in the end, these two teams are right about even with each other. Not in record, but in skill level. I believe Atlanta, despite their poor record, is the better team. However, I do not think they will win this game. The biggest reason, home-field advantage. That's something I don't often talk about, but I think it will be a big factor in this one. Washington isn't known for any special home-field advantage, but they have been very good with wins over Green Bay, Carolina, and Dallas in their home stadium. The Falcons the other hand have been bad on the road. In a surprisingly small sample size of just 2 games, the Falcons are winless on the road, and they only scored 12 and 17 points in those 2 games. This stands out to me. I think that will play a big role this week. Atlanta needs to right that wrong quickly. Otherwise, they will have no chance with a heavy road schedule the rest of the way

Redskins win, 26-20

Steelers vs Ravens

A lot has changed since these two met such a short time ago. After a Baltimore win, we were wondering if Pittsburgh would ever bounce back in 2018, and the Ravens looked like one of the teams to beat in the AFC. But since then, the Steelers have finally found their groove, and they showed it by winning all three games between the two Ravens meetings. The Ravens have done much the opposite by dropping 3 of 4 since their win in Pittsburgh. Now Pittsburgh has claimed their usual spot at the top of the divison, while Baltimore needs to crawl back up from .500. This game carries massive weight in the AFC North.

In this division, usually like a dominant defense to take the game. That's what the Ravens had earlier in the year, but now, they don't seem to have it anymore. The defense that looked nearly unbreakable earlier in the year is now appearing closer to average. Last week they let Cam Newton and company score 36 points on them. Cam has been playing very well, but this defense should have been able to bring out the bad Cam. They just couldn't. He never lost his cool, and he beat them into the ground. If Cam Newton can do that to them, Roethlisberger could do even more.

If the Ravens can't dominate that side of the ball, they're in trouble. Not only in this game, but the rest of the season as well.

Steelers win, 30-21

Chargers vs Seahawks

The Seahawks and Chargers have had plenty of success, but they have been overshadowed. Anytime there's an 8-0 team like the Rams in your division, you aren't going to get much attention. Seattle had a slow start with two road losses to start the year, but since then, they have gone 4-1 with their only loss being a narrow one against the L.A. Rams. I didn't expect much from the Seahawks, but now I'm starting to think that they're a few offensive lineman away from a top tier roster.

The Chargers were a team I did expect a lot from. I had picked them as the #1 seed before the season's start. Although they may not accomplish that feat, they definitely appear to be one of the leagues best. However, both the Rams and Chiefs have dwarfed them. The Chargers only two losses came against their 7-1 division rival and the team they share a city with. Those two teams have distracted us from the fact that the Chargers are one of the most well-rounded teams in the game.

Although I do believe the Chargers are a better football team, once again, I believe home-field advantage will be the difference. Seattle's crowd is impacts the game more than most others, and that can easily sway a close matchup in their favor.

Seahawks win, 22-20

Rams vs Saints

Can anybody beat the Rams? That is the big question of this season. When you look at the roster, you really can't find a weak spot. Goff and Gurley have been absolutely exceptional, both having MVP-caliber seasons. This offense led by that dynamic duo has been consistently putting up 30+ points. Only twice this year have they not reached 30, scoring 23 in Denver and 29 against Green Bay last week. But as impressive as the offense had been, the defense isn't too far behind as they allow an average of just 19.4 points. This season the Rams on average are beating their opponent by nearly two TD's. That is pretty much the definition of dominance. However, they are in fact beatable. If it wasn't for Ty Montgomery's horrific fumble in last week's game, they likely would have lost to Green Bay. This week presents a challenge that may prove a bit too much for the undefeated Rams.

In my opinion, the Saints are the biggest threat to L.A. on their regular season schedule. Some may say Kansas City holds that title, but not me. The Chiefs' defense presents no threat to L.A. whatsoever. While New Orleans isn't known for a real strong D, they have been the league's best rushing defense this season, allowing just 3.2 yards per carry. If anybody can control Todd Gurley, it's the New Orleans Saints. Goff won't have much trouble dropping bombs, but making the offense somewhat one-dimensional is a huge step in the right direction. On the other side of the ball is the only NFC offense scoring more points than L.A.. Granted, the Saints are only scoring 0.4 more points per game, but it's still more. Drew Brees is having one of his best seasons at age 39, and it looks like he can shred just about any defense you throw at him. Of course having Kamara and Ingram behind him helps as well. All things considered, this team is capable of beating the Rams, and I think they'll do it this week at home.

Although it hard to think this way, I think a loss could actually be beneficial to the Rams. The postseason is stressful enough as is. The added pressure of going in undefeated could hurt the team in the long run. As weird as this may sound, I think I like their playoff chances more if they go in at 15-1 or worse than if the are 16-0. Not only is there just a little less pressure, but sometimes you need a loss or two to show you your flaws. That's why an undefeated season seems so unreachable.

Saints win, 35-31

Packers vs Patriots

What do I even need to say about this game? Rodgers vs Brady. It doesn't get much better than that. We've seen this happen only once before in 2014, and it lived up to the hype. Both QB's had a 2 TD, 0 INT day with a passer rating over 100 in a 26-21 Green Bay win in Lambeau. I think we can expect more of the same this time around, for the most part.

One of the great things about this QB "rivalry" is the respect the two have for each other. Supposedly, Brady once said, talking to an NFL coach about how Rodgers would do if he were a Patriot, “He’d throw for 7,000 yards every year. He’s so much more talented than me,” While I think most of us would say that's quite an over exaggeration, the level of respect is incredible. Rodgers has also given Brady his fair share of praise, although he hasn't dramatized it quite as much."Tom's been at the top of his game for over a decade," Rodgers said. "Obviously, we play a little bit different style of game, but the stuff that he does well is stuff that over my career I've tried to incorporate into my own game"... "I enjoy competing against great players and obviously Tom is right at the top." As fun as intense, hate-filled rivalries can be, it's great to see this kind of mutual respect between all-time great players.

I don't know who is the better QB between to two, but I don't think that will be the difference in this game. The difference is that New England's secondary has been up there with the best of them in most categories, while Green Bay's is far behind, especially after trading Clinton-Dix. Brady will go crazy against this defense. Rodgers should play a great game, but he can't make up for the rest of his team all the time.

Patriots win, 34-31