NFL Divisional Round Preview
The NFL’s elite eight are set to take the field in the Divisional round. Last week’s playoff games were mostly one-sided, but you can expect that to change as the class of teams improve. Let’s take a look at the four games on the schedule this weekend.
Seahawks vs. Falcons
The regular season meeting between these two teams saw Seattle narrowly escape after Richard Sherman got away with what should’ve been a pass interference call. Before that, the Falcons had no trouble moving the ball up, down and all around the vaunted Seahawks defense. One major difference this time around is that the Seahawks won’t have Earl Thomas at Safety. The Seahawks have to expect much more of a fight than they got from the Lions and their offense. Matt Ryan is an MVP candidate surrounded by top tier talent. Julio Jones leads one of the deepest receiver groups in the NFL that features Taylor Gabriel and Mohamed Sanu. In the backfield, they have a two-headed monster with Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. While the Falcons defense is average at best, the Seattle o-line is still vulnerable to their style of play. Furthermore, Atlanta Head Coach Dan Quinn coached the Seattle defense in the past and should know how they work. So it’s offense vs. defense with the offense knowing a few of the secrets of the defense.
Keys to the Game: The Falcons game plan begins and ends with Matt Ryan. The Falcons quarterback is 1-4 in career playoff games and now is the time for him to forge a legacy for himself. This is the best offense he’s played with and probably his best shot to get the Falcons out of the NFC. He must repeat his previous performance against Seattle which saw him throw for 335 yards and three scores. Also, the Falcons cannot feed any turnovers to Seattle. Defensively, the Falcons should focus on pressuring Russell Wilson. We’ve seen before that Wilson can be turnover prone when trying to do too much. The Falcons secondary has to be up to the task of limiting his downfield production. For Seattle, their defense needs to play a huge game and not get torched like they did in the last matchup with Atlanta. They need to pressure Matt Ryan and hit him often. Forcing turnovers will also be key. Offensively they may want to consider playing keep away with Atlanta’s offense. Pound the ball via the running game and controlling the clock can be very beneficial for Seattle.
Prediction: If there’s any time for the Falcons to make a run to the Super Bowl, the present looks pretty promising. With Earl Thomas out and previous history of torching the Legion of Boom, the Falcons have the advantage. As long as their defense does more bending than breaking, I’ll side with the Falcons on this one.
Texans vs. Patriots
Preying on a wounded Raiders team, the Texans find themselves in the divisional round for only the second time in franchise history. We’ll see what they can do against a Patriots team that has their quarterback healthy. We’ve already seen these two teams play when Tom Brady was serving his four-game suspension. The results weren’t pretty as the Texans lost to the Patriots and their third-string QB. The Texans have always struggled in New England. They’ve lost all of their previous trips to Foxborough by an average of 25 points. While the Texans certainly have the defense to compete in this game, they don’t have the offense. To make matters worse, Bill Belichick is one of the best ever when it comes to exploiting weaknesses in his opponents. With the GOAT QB under center, the Patriots looked prime for yet another run at the Lombardi and no one is shocked.
Keys to Victory: The Texans will need to ride the efforts of their defense once again. Historically, defenses that were successful against Brady usually harassed him, hit him and intercepted his passes. That’s what needs to happen again if the Texans want to win. Without Gronk, they can probably play a more conventional set without having to worry about just one player. Offensively, Brock Oswieler has to manage the game like last week. That means zero turnovers and smart decisions. Also, establishing a running game to keep Brady on the bench will be essential. For New England, Tom Brady playing at a high level and their typical bend and don’t break defense is sufficient like always. I do want to see more from their receiving corp though. Keep Michael Floyd in mind when watching this game.
Prediction: I expect the Houston defense to do their part, but I don’t trust their offense to do theirs. History of struggles against the Patriots, the GOAT Coach and the GOAT QB is too high of a mountain to climb for the Texans. Look for the Patriots to head to their sixth straight AFC title game and 11th in 16 seasons.
Steelers vs. Chiefs
Pittsburgh had no problem with the Dolphins last week. They didn’t have much of a problem against the Chiefs the last time they saw them either. A 43-14 beatdown isn’t expected in the rematch that features a potential ice storm forecast. Kansas City enters the game with an opportunistic defense and special teams unit. Tyreek Hill in particular has given them another dimension on offense and special teams. His highlight reel plays always seem to come when an impact needs to be made. One of the most underrated aspects of football is field position. So Hill’s play already pays off if he does well. They’ll need all the help they can get with the Steelers coming to town. A hobbled Big Ben seems due for one of those bad games he’s good for on the road, but Le’Veon Bell has served as the balance to any bad games he may play. Think back to the Bills game when Ben played awful and Bell went off for 234 yards. And with the Steelers defense playing with an edge, you can expect a physical game. Out of all the the divisional round games, this could be the closest.
Keys to the Game: The key for the Chiefs is easier said than done. They have to find a way to stop Le’Veon Bell. One way they can do that is establish the run on offense and keep the Steelers on the sideline. Another way is to completely sell out and over play the run. But then that leaves the passing game room to attack for Pittsburgh and the Chiefs secondary doesn’t want to see them again. Also, the Chiefs have to be effective in the redzone. They’re one of the worst teams in the aspect with a 45.5% touchdown rate inside the 20. And finally, they have to control field position with their special teams. Make the Steelers travel long distances to score their points. The Steelers need to ride Bell and hope Ben doesn’t get out of hand with turnovers. Also, kicking away from Tyreek Hill and keeping an eye on him every time he’s on the field would be wise. And finally, they need to make Alex Smith try to beat them. That means cutting the Chiefs running game out of the picture.
Prediction: I’m expecting a close game, but the Chiefs have no answer for two of the killer B’s (Bell and Brown). If the other one gets going, they’re in deep trouble. And with the Steelers defense playing at a higher level, I have to pick the Steelers in this one.
Packers vs. Cowboys
The one that the media can’t wait for. No seriously, they cannot stop talking about the Cowboys. They’ve had an amazing season led by a couple of rookies, but one has to wonder when their lack of experience will show. Once again, these two teams have met once before with the Cowboys coming away with a one-sided victory. Many things remain the same and the strategy will likely be similar. Dallas still has their great wall up front and a defense that rarely breaks. The Packers has a MVP candidate at quarterback who happens to be the hottest QB playing right now. So looking ahead to Sunday, the Packers are the team with the most adjustments to make. Their run defense will have to come to play. Otherwise, their offense will be limited due to time of possession alone. The Cowboys have rested pass rushers and Mo Claiborne back on defense. And with no Jordy Nelson, even the hot Packers will have a fight on their hands. I expect the Cowboys to start with rushing three or four and dropping the rest back into coverage. The Packers would be wise to recognize that and get some running going. It’s going to be close and the hype will be second to none. So we’ll see how it turns out in Jerry World.
Keys to the Game: The Packers have to find a way to contain Ezekiel Elliot and the Dallas running game. Not only because that’s the tip of the spear for Dallas, but also because running eats up the clock. That means more of Aaron Rodgers on the bench. Also they need to find a way to pressure Dak Prescott and find a way to make him beat them. Once again, easier said than done with the Dallas o-line in play. Offensively, they need to attack the Cowboys with everything. Try and turn this into a shootout and force the winning score to be higher than 35. For the Cowboys, they need to run it down the Packers throat in order to keep Rodgers near the Gatorade and off the field. Dak simply needs to manage the game. Turnovers would only feed momentum to an already hot Packers offense. Defensively, they need to hold their ground, don’t break and don’t allow the big play.
Predictions: This comes down to if you believe the Packers can penetrate the Dallas o-line. I don’t think it will be that easy. I think the Cowboys play keep away and do just enough on offense to escape Sunday with a narrow playoff win.
