NFL Wildcard Preview
12 teams fighting for a spot in Super Bowl LI. The playoffs have arrived and it’s time for the Wildcard preview. So let’s get on the road to Houston.
Raiders vs. Texans
Without the services of quarterback Derek Carr, the Oakland Raiders have gone from Super Bowl contender to playoff canon fodder. Connor Cook will make the first start of his career one week after making the first throws ever on the NFL level. So unless you’re expecting Cook to to be some sort of prodigy, the burden of victory will likely fall to a Raiders defense that has mostly underachieved all season long. Despite potential to be something more, the Oakland defense only ranks 26th in the NFL and mostly relied on their high-powered offense to win the games for them. There has to be a shift if Oakland plans on keeping their season alive.
For the Texans, they have similar problems at quarterback. Brock Osweiler will get the start with Tom Savage stuck in the concussion protocol. Osweiler has failed to live up to the contract that was given to him in the offseason last year, but will get a chance that he didn’t get last year. He has far more things in his favor when compared to Cook. He has Lamar Miller to to hand the ball to and the league’s top ranked defense to attack a leaderless Raiders offense. A good running game and strong defense is the foundation for playoff success. Despite uncertainty at the QB position, the Texans still have the goods to advance.
Keys to the Game: For Oakland, they have to protect the ball and most of that will fall to their third string quarterback. Given the nature of the Raiders offense, don’t expect them to abandon the deep ball altogether. However, they must establish a rhythm before going right over the top. Getting Latavius Murray some carries and getting some quick throws to get Cook’s confidence up. The main key for the Raiders will be their defense. They need to stop Lamar Miller at all cost and force Osweiler to beat him. For the Texans, their keys to victory are much more simplistic. Their strengths in this game will be running the football and forcing Cook into turnovers with relentless pressure. In the event that their running game stalls, Osweiler needs to make plays while protecting the ball.
Prediction: It would’ve been quite the story had Derek Carr stayed healthy. Carr would’ve led the Raiders past the team that drafted his brother and passed on him. But instead, we get a third rounder up against the league’s best defense. We’ll probably see the best defensive effort from the Raiders all season, but I don’t believe it will be enough. In a field goal filled game, I’m picking the Texans to win a close game.
Lions vs. Seahawks
Detroit is back in the playoffs after a three year hiatus and they’re getting healthy at the right time. According to the Detroit Free Press, all players participated in practice in some capacity. Matthew Stafford is still dealing with a finger injury that has hampered his production. The Lions are here because they consistently found ways to win close games in the fourth quarter. They'd find ways to overcome deficits and odds act we’ve seen other teams fold under. However, the Lions were also 0-5 against playoff teams this season. Detroit will have to overcome even more odds if they plan to keep their season alive and win their first playoff game since 1991.
On the other side, the Seahawks are back in the playoffs once again. Home playoff games in Seattle are easy to predict for the most part. Simply put, the Seahawks haven’t lost a home playoff game in 12 years. As good as the Seahawks are, this teams identity is different than the teams we saw go to back to back Super Bowls. Their running game doesn’t pack the punch it used to and the offensive line is vulnerable. Fortunately the defensive identity has remained same and that will make this team still the dangerous threat we know them to be.
Keys to Victory: According to ESPN.com, Detroit has allowed opposing quarterbacks to compete 73 percent of their passes. As you can guess, that is far and away the worst in the league. Doug Baldwin and Jimmy Graham will be in line for good games unless the Lions can fix that. They have to apply pressure to Russell Wilson and try to force some mistakes out of him. Offensively, they’ll have to find creative ways to score on the Seattle defense. That means that Zach Zenner will have to give them something on the ground. You can also expect some screens and some misdirection used by Detroit. For Seattle, they need to play their game. That needs to start with keeping Wilson clean in the pocket and allowing him to throw on the weak Lions defense. Defensively, they must attack Matthew Stafford and force turnovers.
Prediction: There’s two stats that I mentioned that tell the whole story: the Lions allowing quarterbacks to complete 73 percent of their passes and the Seahawks 12 year run without a playoff loss at home. The Seahawks should take care of business and win this game.
Dolphins vs. Steelers
The Miami Dolphins are back in the playoffs for the fist time since 2008. Although Ryan Tannehill returned to practice, he won’t be playing in this game. That means Matt Moore will be under center once again for Miami. The last time Miami saw the Steelers, Jay Ajayi was able to rip the Steelers defense with 204 rushing yards and two touchdowns. With the Steelers offense on the other side, Ajayi will be a key to potential victory once again.
Pittsburgh returns to the playoffs in a far better position than last year. For the first time ever the Steelers will have the services of Le’Veon Bell, Antonio Brown and Ben Roethlisberger for a playoff game. Down the stretch of the regular season, the Big three has really been the big one. Bell has been the player that makes this offense go. He led the league in yards from scrimmage this season and averaged nearly 160 yards per game this season. Defensively, the unit that I jokingly call the ‘Bizarro Steelers Defense' has actually played solid football all year. With all the pieces in place, Pittsburgh is one of the few threats in the AFC.
Keys to the Game: The biggest key to victory for Miami is stopping Le’Veon Bell. That’s where we run into a bit of a problem. The Dolphins allowed 4.8 yards per carry this season and Bell is the best in the business. Big Ben can be turnover prone is he’s forced to make plays, so attempting to slow down Bell is a good start. However, Miami opens themselves to a whole new problem by the name of Antonio Brown. The Dolphins top corner Byron Maxwell is a question mark going into the game. Not that he could stop Brown in the first place, but he was best suited to try at the very least. The Steelers key are all there. Attack a vulnerable run defense with the best back in the game today and limit the turnovers.
Prediction: This game looks like a mismatch. It won’t be a blowout, but the Steelers should still advance nonetheless.
Giants vs. Packers
I can’t really blame the Giants players for taking a quick trip to Miami. After all, have you seen the weather reports for Sunday’s game? Anyway, there’s no need to worry about that having a negative impact. The Giants have a history of quietly entering the playoffs and making a run behind a hot defense and Eli Manning who takes his playoff form. Also remember that Eli is 2-0 in career playoff games at Lambeau Field and that the Giants last two Super Bowl runs included wins over Green Bay. Now I know Eli has been below average and turnover heavy this season, but you have to throw that out given his playoff history. On top of that, you have to remember that the Giants defense looks like the Giants defense that has helped him go far in the past. New York’s defense has held three of their last four opponents to 10 or fewer points. Not saying it’s a guarantee the Giants go far, but I am saying it has a similar eery feel.
I can say the same thing about the Packers red hot play and past history. It feels an like 2010 again with the Packers struggling and getting hot at the right time. Aaron Rodgers went off during that playoff run that ended in Super Bowl triumph and it looks like he can repeat that success. The once stagnant Packer offense averaged 31 points per game during their six-game winning streak that closed out the regular season. The concern of for the Packers is their secondary which has always been their weakness. Add the injuries and you just don’t know what to expect from them.
Keys to the Game: The main battle will be between the Giants defense and the Packers offense. Both units are playing at a high level and something has to give. The wildcard in all this will be the play of Eli Manning. While he has a history of doing special things in the postseason, he also has put up some duds in his career. His lackluster play this season has been nothing to write home about. If he can flip the script and turn into “Playoff Eli”, he’ll encounter a weak secondary and Odell Beckham Jr. ready to shred them.
Predictions: History says the Giants are poised to make a run and make it three for three at Lambeau in the playoffs in the last decade. However, at my own risk I don’t believe Eli will capture his playoff magic. That leaves Aaron Rodgers to eventually find some openings in the Giants defense and lead the Pack to victory.
