Is Jay Cutler Just a Fill-In for the Dolphins?
Who is the Franchise Quarterback for the Miami Dolphins?
Most NFL quarterbacking changes seem to follow the same blueprint: a younger, healthy quarterback replaces an older, injured quarterback. We've seen this situation countless times, and most recently in Dallas, where a 4th round draft pick took a job from the franchise's leader in passing yards and touchdown passes. And 6th round pick Tom Brady? He stepped in for an injured Drew Bledsoe, and look where we are now.
How about Jay Cutler? The man was bounced out of Chicago after only playing 5 games last season, only to land in the broadcast booth with FOX. The Bears, on the other hand, moved on to draft Mitchell Trubisky and sign Mike Glennon in search for a new franchise quarterback. But the 34-year-old found a new calling (one worth $10 million dollars). So while the Dolphins take this one step at a time, we must look much further into the future. What is the direction of the football team? Will this team be led by a conservative, mediocre quarterback (likely) headed for knee surgery? Or will the future reside with the older, inconsistent gunslinger who has yet to prove himself as an above average starter?
In order to compare the two, the most important thing to udnerstand is each guy's relationship with Dolphins coach Adam Gase. Cutler, back in 2015, had his best season under Gase, who was then the offensive coordinator. Then Gase moved to Miami to take the head coaching job, and in doing so, inherited Ryan Tannehill, a work-in-progress with potential to be franchise quarterback. And Gase turned the 2016 season into Tannehill's most productive one. Tannehill played 13 games for Miami last year before going down to injury. But the numbers showed this past season to arguably be his best. He finished with the highest completion percentage of his career, his highest touchdown-interception ratio of his career, and with a 93.5 QBR, which was, again, the highest of his career. On top of everything, Miami made it into the playoffs for the first time since 2008, only for the Matt Moore-led team to lose to the Steelers in the first round. All good things come to an end, however, and Tannehill's non-contact injury in training camp just last week changed the trajectory of not only the season, but possibly the franchise as well.
Gase's 2016 magic on Tannehill was not a first-time occurrence. Rewind to the 2015 season in Chicago, and Jay Cutler found stability under his OC at the time. Cutler showed better decision making, cut down on his turnovers, and posted the highest passer rating of his career (92.3). Thus, Cutler's move isn't one of high risk. He knows the offense Gase runs, and the fit is as good as that of any backup quarterback. Considering the pool of backups is pretty limited, Gase got the best option available, mostly because of Cutler's familiarity. Cutler is in arguably the best situation of his career too. Back in 2013, he had Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery on the edges, but it was nonetheless a disappointing year. Now, Cutler has more weapons at his disposal. Jay Ajayi has begun to step into a bigger role in the offense, as he finished with nearly 1,300 yards on the ground last season. Jarvis Landry has become a consistent pass catcher on the outside. And Cutler has other threats in DeVante Parker, a third year wide receiver and one-on-one coverage nightmare, and Kenny Stills, a proven deep threat. Throw in 2 time Pro-Bowler Julius Thomas at TE, and the Dolphins have a potentially above-average offense. And while Cutler is certainly not an above-average quarterback, he can surely stand out and excel in a system that wasn't even created for him.
It may be too soon to state that Cutler can be the starter for Miami past this season. But he has the tools, and a healthy season for Cutler could mean the end of Tannehill in Miami. Tannehill has a potential out in his contract entering the 2018 season, and Cutler's age isn't too concerning when surveying the age of other successful quarterbacks in the league. The odds seem to be against Tannehill. Coming back from two knee injuries is difficult enough, but Tannehill will also have to prove the prime of his career is not yet complete.
The reality is that no team other than the Patriots will likely win the AFC East as long as Number 12 takes the field on Sunday. But with Cutler, the Dolphins could jockey for a playoff spot. Say Cutler takes the Dolphins to the playoffs. At that point, he will have played in more playoff games for Miami than Tannehill has. Yes, Tannehill is much younger. But if Cutler can make Miami a playoff contender, Tannehill may fufill his role as a franchise quarterback elsewhere. Surely, Cutler can go down with an injury and may never even get to see success for Miami. But he's in a position to succeed, and even a mediocre season raises the question of who will lead the Dolphins into the future. The best way of looking at it might be to see who has a better chance of outlasting Brady, considering he'll likely be the division champion until he retires. But if neither can outlast Brady, or neither can sustain good enough football to win the division when Brady is gone, the Dolphins may need to look in another direction. Next season, Cutler will be 35, and Tannehill will be 30. At that point, it may even be time for the Dolphins to look for a new and young franchise quarterback. As much as we thought Tannehill was the man in Miami, the future is very unclear for the Dolphins. But be sure of one thing: Jay Cutler is not just a fill-in for the Miami Dolphins. He may in fact be a replacement.
