Week 5 Preview, Spread picks, Quarter-Season Awards
Welcome to Week 5! We are already through a quarter of the season and there have been a lot of ups and downs, a few surprises, and unfortunately some devastating injuries (yes, I'm still crying myself to sleep over Dalvin Cook's injury). Looking forward, there are are a few games that will separate some of the top teams in the league (Carolina/Detroit, Seattle/LA Rams, GB/Dallas, and KC/Houston) as well as a game featuring two 0-4 teams that really need a win to get back on track. Continue reading below to find out more and as always, if you enjoy the content or you just feel like doing something nice today, follow me on here as well as on Twitter at @CoachTylerPauly for more content from a coaching perspective.
Week 5 Picks
New England at Tampa Bay, NE -5.5, New England
Buffalo at Cincinnati, Cin. -3, Buffalo
N.Y. Jets at Cleveland, Even, N.Y. Jets
Carolina at Detroit, Det. -2, Detroit
San Francisco at Indianapolis, Ind. -1.5, Indianapolis
Tennessee at Miami, Tenn. -3, Tennessee
L.A. Chargers at N.Y. Giants, NYG -3.5, N.Y. Giants
Arizona at Philadelphia, Phil. -6.5, Philadelphia
Jacksonville at Pittsburgh, Pitt. -8.5, Pittsburgh
Seattle at L.A. Rams, Even, L.A. Rams
Baltimore at Oakland, Oak. -2.5, Oakland
Green Bay at Dallas, Dall. -2, Green Bay
Kansas City at Houston, KC -1, KC
Minnesota at Chicago, Minn. -3, Minnesota
*-will cover spread but fail to win the game.
Highlight Game of the Week
Seattle at L.A. Rams
While this game may not be the game of the week for many other people, I am fascinated by the turnaround of this Rams team and I think this is the game that is going to tell us whether or not this team can compete not just for a spot in the playoffs, but whether or not it is a possibility for them to dethrone the Seahawks and win the division.
Starting with Seattle's offense, it seems as if they may finally be gaining some momentum. The loss of Chris Carson could change this but with a plethora of backs to choose from (Lacy, Prosise, Rawls, and McKissic) I don't believe they skip a beat. Russell is getting the ball downfield on a higher percentage of his throw thanks to the somewhat improved play of the offensive line however it isn't always from the same place. Wilson is averaging 6.86 yards per pass when he is in the shotgun compared to 7.82 yards per play under center. The difference in yardage is most likely accounted for in the types of plays being run. From under center there tend to be more play action plays that are run which call for deeper routes at times. In shotgun, there is a higher chance of 3 step routes like hitch and slant, accounting for the 1 yard difference in average. If Baldwin is able to suit up this week I think this offense continues to roll and Wilson continues to improve.
On defense, Seattle has not looked like one of the best defenses in the league each and every week even though the stats may not show that. They currently rank 27th against the run, 4th against the pass, and 14th overall. Given they are also in the top 10 in points allowed, I see all of these numbers getting better as the year goes on, barring any injuries. One of the biggest issues plaguing this defense is their inability to get sacks and create turnovers. They only have 10 sacks as a team on the season as well as only 2 interceptions. If this team plans on competing in playoffs, even just making the playoffs, there needs to be improvement in that area from the likes of Kam Chancellor, Richard Sherman, etc.
Special Teams has been solid for Seattle. Blair Walsh hasn't missed a field goal or extra point yet this year (just wait until the playoffs Seattle) and Jon Ryan ranks 11th in punt average. The punt coverage team has been on the field the 4th most this year but they have also only allowed 5.6 yards per return, a good, solid number.
For the L.A. Rams, how can you not talk about the rise of Jared Goff? Coming off of a very poor year last year, he has really enhanced his ability to read a defense pre-snap, as well as make quick reads when the defense shifts. He is top 10 in yards, completion percentage, and he is currently leading the league in yards per attempt at 9.16/throw. He also only has 1 interception which shows his increased ability to progress through his reads and make smart decisions. Todd Gurley has also seen a reemergence after last year. He is 2nd in the league in yards, touchdowns, and yards per game which all point to a strong year for him. The one concerning factor is he is also leading the league in fumbles, which could hurt the Rams if he doesn't correct that issue. An interesting note about the Rams rushing attack, specifically Gurley: the Rams favor going to the left on 1st down and right on 2nd down when they run with him. The only time this changes is in the red zone when they almost exclusively run to the right side. Most teams tend to value their strengths on 1st down but apparently the Rams have a different offensive philosophy. It will be interesting to see this come into play against a front 7 that has been underperforming for Seattle.
While fumbling on offense seems to be a trend for the Rams, forcing fumbles is a trend for their defense. The Rams rank second in forced fumbles (4 of which they have recovered) but that is about the only category the Rams rank high in. They are 27th in yards per game, 28th in points per game, 13th in passing yards per game, and 30th in rushing yards per game. Aaron Donald is a lone bright spot for this defense but he only has 1 sack on the year and hasn't seemed to make much of an impact yet. They also have a talented group of linebackers who have been underperforming, causing the rest of their defense (specifically the DBs) to struggle this year. The lack of pressure being put on opposing QBs is something to watch for in this game as Russell Wilson is the kind of QB that will pick you apart if given the time.
On special teams, Greg Zuerlein leads the NFL in FGs with 14 (14/14) along with 14/14 on extra points as well. He was the deciding factor in their game last week against a tough Cowboys team. Johnny Hekker is averaging 47.8 yards per punt which ranks him 8th in the league. If L.A. plans on continuing this run, both of these two will be relied upon heavily, especially when it comes to determining field position.
Player to watch: Aaron Donald
Bold Prediction: L.A. puts up 34 on Seattle's defense and claims the NFC west (for now)
Game Prediction: L.A. Rams 34 Seattle 24
Quarter Season Awards
Defensive Rookie of the Year - Jamal Adams - I mentioned in a previous post that I like T.J. Watt to win this at the end of the year but so far Adams has been fantastic (and Watt has been injured) so this was a pretty easy choice for me. Tre'Davious White in Buffalo has also impressed in his debut (have I mentioned I REALLY like Buffalo?) but what Adams has done for that Jets secondary has been nothing short of a miracle. Some of the credit has to go to his counterpart Maye, but Adams is the real deal.
Offensive Rookie of the Year - Kareem Hunt - Not much to talk about here. Hunt has run away with this award (and maybe MVP?) in the first 4 weeks of the season and it isn't even close. Over 500 yards rushing in his 1st 4 games with 3 50+ yard TD runs. It's almost unbelievable what this rookie has done for the best team in the league right now.
Coach of the Year - Sean McDermott - This should be no surprise to anyone who has read any of my previous posts, but maybe it will be to many other football fans out there. I see a lot of people talking about Andy Reid (deservingly) and Sean McVay (deservingly) but NO ONE is talking about McDermott. In my opinion this guy has come into his first year and turned this team into a true contender. The Chiefs were already going to be good and I'm still not sold on the Rams.
Comeback Player of the Year - Justin Houston - This was a tough one for me. Houston has been playing really well for the best team in the league but Earl Thomas has also made a huge impact after his huge injury last year. The difference for me is what Houston has done as a leader for the Chiefs defense in bringing them together to start 4-0. I don't see that out of Thomas which is why my choice is Houston.
Defensive Player of the Year - DeMarcus Lawerence - There really isn't any other option here. 7.5 sacks in 4 games and is causing havoc in every backfield he gets into. Take into account 3 of their 4 games have come against tough opponents and it makes it that much more impressive.
Offensive Player of the Year - Kareem Hunt - See Offensive Rookie of the Year above. It's not even close.
MVP - Kareem Hunt - At this point I know I'm getting repetitive, but come on. This guy is destroying teams and yes I understand Brady is having a good year too but did you really want to see another blog with his name next to MVP? Didn't think so.
