Dallas' Realistic Best Case Scenarios

The Mavericks roster isn't quite set yet, but the important pieces are in place. In this article, I want to take an in depth look at what those important guys  could ultimately bring to Dallas in the absolute best case scenario. Could this get your hopes up? Oh yes. But honestly, what's new for Mavs fans? Let's face it, we get our spirits crushed a lot. But, put that aside, and look on the bright side of things as I take a dive into what could be. 

Deron Williams
Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Last season, Deron Williams forced his way out of Brooklyn with a buyout so that he could come back home to Dallas to help his hometown team out after the craziest free agency drama any one team in the NBA has seen. In Brooklyn, D-Will didn't live up to expectations and made life for his coaches there a living hell. All the while, his body seemed to be breaking down on him. Nobody gave him much of a chance to do anything in Dallas, but he proved all of those people wrong. Williams put up 14 points and dished out 6 assists per game, while shooting 34% from three. He missed a good chunk of games (17) and most of the first round of the playoffs. 

After re-signing with the Mavs for one year, $10 million, the Mavs and D-Will are ready to try to copy what he did last season. If all goes as well as it possibly could, Deron Williams will be a spitting image of what he was last season. I'm happy that he's back, especially after a whole season in the system. Williams hit big shots in the 4th quarter, and if he can do that again next year, Dallas is going to be in great shape. In Williams' best case scenario, he would need to stay healthy just a bit more than he did last year. If D-Will can come into training camp in tip-top shape and Casey Smith's A1 training staff can work some of their magic, Williams should be able to play 72+ games this season AND be available for Dallas' playoff run. Yeah, I said it, playoff run.

Wesley Matthews
Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

The Iron Man, Wesley Matthews, didn't quite live up to his pay check last year. Coming off of his achilles injury, Matthews honestly did more than people should have expected, but those people expected him to play up to a max contract. 13 points on 36% shooting from three is really good, but not max contract good. He also grabbed 3 rebounds, dished out 2 assists, and averaged 1 steal per game. However, his defense and leadership are two things that don't show up on paper that showed his worth. Somehow, he played 78 games in a season that he was expected to miss at least (!!!) half of. That right there is a testament to his work ethic itself.

I've been a big believer in Wesley Matthews since he hit free agency last summer, which is why I am setting the bar pretty high for him next season. In his best season with Portland (2013-14), Wes put up 16.4 points per game, pulled down 3.5 rebounds, and shot 39% from three. I think he can replicate that season almost exactly. I want to see and I think we can see Wes score 16+ on a consistent basis, but I really think his three point percentage can jump into the 40% range. His defense will continue to be Matthews' bread and butter, and if his scoring could jump into what I believe it can, he could be one of the very best three-and-D players in the league. My hopes are high.

Harrison Barnes
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Ah yes, the most exciting free agent addition the Mavericks made this summer is Harrison Barnes. #40 is a hard worker, he's young, he's consistently improving, and he has proven himself worthy of a starting position on a team that has been to the NBA championship in back to back season. I like him. I had to convince myself, but I like him. Harry B put up 12 points per game and crashed the glass by averaging 5 rebounds per game. At only 24 years old, Barnes is going to have plenty of time to prove himself worthy of the 4 year contract Dallas signed him to. But what is his ceiling for next year?

Barnes is going to get a lot more touches on a team without Stephen Curry, or without Klay Thompson, or without Draymond Green. He's really going to get a chance to live up to his true potential with Dallas. Shooting 38% from three is a reasonable ceiling for Harry B next year, but his points per game should really see an increase. I don't think he'll have any trouble adjusting to this system because of his hard work and having a teammate like Andrew Bogut alongside him. I think and I hope that Barnes can average up to 15 points per game next year and maybe even up his assist total from 1.5 to closer to 3 per game since he'll have more playmaking responsibilities. Besides offense, Harrison Barnes is an above average defender, and next to Wes Matthews, they could be an incredible defensive duo on the wings. His defense is already great, so it can only get better with age. I believe in Harrison Barnes. 

Dirk Nowitzki
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Ah the Big German. Our GOAT. Our golden boy. As always, Dirk was his same old reliable self. At 38 years old, Dirk put up 18 points in 32 minutes per game. He stayed perfectly healthy, missing 7 due to rest, and showed that age is just a number when it comes to him. Dirk and the Mavericks agreed to a 2 year, $22 million deal with a player option on his second year. 

The best case scenario for Dirk is that he sees his statistics take a dip next season. I know that sounds crazy, but hear me out. Dirk is riding off into the sunset on a really high note, much higher than Tim Duncan or Kobe Bryant did. If he can see his minutes get closer to 23-25 minutes per game instead of 32, it would be the best thing in the world for Mavs fans. With Dwight Powell stepping into a bigger role and Harrison Barnes being capable of playing a smaller 4 slot, Dirk's best case scenario would be getting some rest in the regular season while the Mavs continue to win. If Dirk can play 5 less minutes per game without the Mavs giving up wins, he could be the animal he always is in the Playoffs. 

Andrew Bogut
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After trading air for Andrew Bogut, Dallas has their starting center for the 2015-16 season. Carlisle has had a new center every year since the 2009-10 season, and somehow, they continue to play at a high level for Dallas. Andrew Bogut may be Carlisle's best starting center since Tyson Chandler came back for his second go-round with the Mavs. Like Harry B, Bogut proved that he can start on a championship team and hold down the middle. His stats have gone down due to Golden State playing small ball so often, but even only playing 20 minutes per game, he still proved valuable. Last year, Bogut averaged 5.4 points, 7 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and nearly 2 blocks per game. 

Since Dallas doesn't have the kind of guys to run small ball the way Golden State does, Bogut's minutes should be closer to the 26-28 range, much like Zaza Pachulia. Carlisle loves to run the pick-&-roll, and Bogut is an athletic 7 footer that is more than capable of finishing above the rim. I think Bogut's numbers could really see some growth in Dallas. I see him averaging about the same as Zaza: 9 and 9. The only difference between the two is that Bogut's production has a much better chance of staying consistent through all-star break, unlike Zaza. Okay I lied, the other difference is that Bogut can block shots too. He should swat about 2 per game again this year. His ceiling is a double-double in my mind, but 9 and 9 is probably more of a realistic best case scenario. 

Seth Curry
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Is it just me or is Seth jumping off of Dirk's thigh in that picture? I don't know, okay, anyway. Seth Curry could very well be the steal of the offseason. He's 25 years old and shot 45% from behind the three point line with the Sacramento Kings last year. In the month of April, when his minutes took a jump from 20 to 32 per game, Curry averaged 16.4 points per game, 5.3 assists, and  shot 49% from three. That is honestly insane to make nearly half of every three pointer you shoot for an entire month. Dallas picked up Curry for 6 million dollars over 2 years after Sacramento idiotically renounced his rights as a restricted free agent. Someone really needs to help the Kings' front office out man, they're having a rough time over there.

He's not going to get 32 minutes per game in Dallas, that's about as close to a guarantee as you can get. Raymond Felton, arguably Dallas' best guard off the bench, played 27.4 minutes per game. At 25 years old, I think it's reasonable to expect that Seth Curry won't get quite that many minutes until he proves himself under Rick Carlisle. Curry will likely be the second string two guard behind Wes Matthews and will provided some much needed shooting off the bench. I think we could see Curry's statistics look as good as 9-12 points per game on 45% three point scoring. He's also a very good passer and could get his assist numbers up to about 3 per game. If Carlisle gives Curry is much deserved minutes, he could blossom into a 6th man type guy. 

Justin Anderson
John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports

Pretty much the only reason the playoffs were fun to watch for Dallas fans. Anderson showed his promise when Chandler Parsons went down with injury. In Carlisle's system, as we all know, rookies don't see much run, but he was forced to give Simba a lot of minutes and it went well. In the month of April (Playoffs included), Anderson's stats took a leap when his minutes went up from 14 to 23. The rookie out of UVA averaged 8.4 points, 5.2 boards, 1.5 assists, and close to 1 block per game. 

In his second year, his minutes should be closer to 20 minutes every game, if all goes right. Rick believes in him now and will utilize him much more consistently than last season. I don't think we see Anderson get sent to the Legends at all this next season, as his minutes at the NBA level should give him more than enough experience. I think his production will stay around the same in the 8-9 point range and close to 6 rebounds per game. His defense is huge and it will continue to develop, but the main thing I want to see improve is his three point percentage. JA shot 27% from three last season, not the clip he was expected to shoot at. I think it could get closer to the 35% marker next year and that, in turn, could help his points per game jump up as well. I'm excited to see the player he can grow into in a Dallas jersey. 

Dwight Powell
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Dwight Powell, the guy Boston threw into the Rajon Rondo trade, just signed a 4 year, $37 million deal to stay in Dallas. In his second year in Dallas, Powell played 14.4 minutes per game, scored about 6 points per game, and pulled down 4 rebounds. The Mavericks believe in him as Dirk Nowitzki's backup, and maybe even his successor when he's gone. Since he came in town from Boston, he has been cited as one of the hardest workers on the team. He's only 24 years old and has a lot of room to grow. 

Now, in his second season in the NBA and with Dallas, his playing time should be closer to 18 on a consistent basis. I think we could see Powell's stats get closer to the 7 and 7 range and rack up a few double-doubles from time to time. I think the biggest thing we could see Powell improve upon is his jump shot. Powell may not extend out to three point range yet, but his mid-range jumper could and should become a very deadly weapon off the bench for Carlisle next season. I'm a big believer in Dwight Powell, not a 37 million dollar believer quite yet, but I think he can grow into that contract. 

Salah Mejri
Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

The Tunisian Tower baby. When Dallas first signed this guy, I didn't think he has a snowball's chance in hell of making the team. I thought our center depth was going to be Zaza, JaVale, and Samuel Dalembert. Thank God it didn't end up like that. Mejri played really well in the Playoffs and stepped up big when Zaza had an injury here and there. His minutes were scattered, but he ended up averaging 12 per game and blocked shots left and right off the bench. He's going to be Andrew Bogut's primary backup next season and could really grow in his second season in the NBA.

For the season, Mejri averaged close to 4 points per game, 4 rebounds, and a block of the bench. This year, I think Mejri's stats should hover around the same numbers as last year. I think he still scores about 4 points per game, most of them coming off lobs, and I really think his rebounds could jump up into the 7 per game range. His blocks, however, are where Mejri really shows his worth. Mejri had one game in which he blocked 6 shots last season against Portland. Next year, I think instead of just 1 per game, he swats as many as 2 per game off the bench. I don't think Mejri has a whole lot of room to grow being 29 years old, but I think with more minutes, his stats will just see a little jump. 

Nicolas Brussino and Dorian Finney-Smith are not locks to make this roster, and even if they do, either one will likely see most of their minutes in D-League. AJ Hammons, the Mavericks' second round pick, will also likely see a lot of time in the D-League, but he could have some big games here and there, like Mejri in his first season. Devin Harris and JJ Barea basically bring you the same thing ever season, although I wouldn't be surprised to see Harris' minutes take a dip. I'm excited to see what all of these guys can do. Remember, all of these stats that I've talked about are the best case scenario. If all of these things actually happened, Dallas could be a top 5 team in the West. The bench is going to be big this season, but every other player on this team is going to have to step their game up just a little bit.