Why Houston Will Make The NCAA Tournament
Houston squeaked by Central Florida with another win as the Coogs improved to 17-5 on the year. After today's win I'm am very confident Houston will hear their name called on Selection Sunday and here is why.
The Cougars are currently 4-2 against Quadrant one teams, which the NCAA said they will be putting more emphasis on. A Quadrant one win is defined as beating a team at home that has a RPI between 1-30, winning at a neutral site against a team RPI 1-50 and winning on the road against teams that have an RPI of 1-75. This helps put more emphasis on road wins in college basketball, but that will help the Cougars immensely is they have a winning record against Quadrant 1 teams. The Cougars are just 1-2 against Quadrant 2 teams, but I think the NCAA would reward more for good wins, then bad losses and the Cougars have just two of them in Tulane (Which was a quadrant 2 game) and Drexel.
Another reason I like Houston to make the dance is because their schedule sets up for it. The only three games left could see Houston losing is SMU who they play twice and then at home against Cincinnati, but if you take away those two teams they have home games against; Tulane, UConn, and ECU, and away games against Temple and Memphis. Realistically, I see the Cougars splitting against SMU and then losing to Cincinnati and finishing the year at 23-7 and heading to the conference tournament and I just don't see a team like that not getting bid. Give them two wins in the AAC Tournament and then they are 25-8. When Tulsa made the tournament in 2015 they were 20-11 and got an at-large. That same year UConn got in as an 8 seed at 24-10. That same year, Cincinnati got in as a 9 seed at 22-10. So if Houston wins the games they are supposed to win, then I think they will get in.
With the way Wichita is playing right now, Houston has the best shot at beating Cincinnati. If the Cougars could pull of that win, then they would basically lock down a bid, but that's easier said than done. Still with games left on the schedule against @SMU, @Temple, and Cincinnati means they still have three more opportunities at Quadrant 1 wins, so it's not like Houston has no more shots at good wins.
According to Bracketmatrix.com, 69 of the 79 bracketologist's currently have Houston in the field. One bracket has Houston as high as an 8 seed. If Houston can avoid the bad losses then they are in great shape, I believe Rob Gray can carry them in most of the games they have remaining on their schedule.
