BeastLine CFB Preview: Week 7

For those who follow our Twitter account (@BeastlineSports), you know that every week, Jett and I pick a select amount of college football games, give our predictions for our Beast of the Night, and an upset pick. This week, and hopefully for future weeks, we aim to write an article highlighting a few of the biggest games of the week, and still include all of our normal picks. Let's get started with our Week 7 Preview

Purdue Boilermakers @ #7 Wisconsin Badgers

-I think this game is flying under the radar this weekend, and for those who actively follow college football, and more specifically Big Ten football, you would know this is not an easy game for the Wisconsin Badgers. I am a Wisconsin fan, and I'll admit, this game has a "trap game" feel. The Purdue Boilermakers have quietly been one of the most surprising teams in college football (they finished 3-9 last season), losing to Louisville by 7 points Week 1, and to Michigan two weeks ago, in a game I thought they would win. In other words, Purdue is battle tested, as they have also traveled to play the Missouri Tigers in Columbia, and just won a tough game over P.J. Fleck's Minnesota team. David Blough is an underrated QB, and stud freshman WR Jackson Anthrop can make some noise against a tough Wisconsin defense.

-The real test for the Boilermakers should come on the defensive side, as Wisconsin is well-known for having an elite offensive line and rushing attack. This year has been no different, as Wisconsin ranks 16th in rushing offense, avergaging 5.5 yards per carry, 257.6 yards per game, and 13 rushing TDs. Freshman Jonathan Taylor is the Heisman contender nobody is talking about, as he is already up to 767 rushing yards and 9 TDs on the season (averaging 7.9 YPC), and he wasn't even the starting RB on the depth chart week 1! Add in game manager Alex Hornibrook, and star TE Troy Fumagalli, and the Badgers offense is tough to stop. Wisconsin is also one of the best offenses on 3rd down in the NCAA this season, converting on 51.7% of chances, 5th best in the NCAA. The Badgers also possess one of the best defenses in college football, allowing just 273.8 yards per game. Considering they are averaging around 260 yards per game running the football alone(!), it looks like it could be a tough day for the Boilermakers.

Key Things to Remember:

1. Purdue has faced two ranked teams this season (Louisville & Michigan); Wisconsin's toughest opponent has been Nebraska on the road (insane environment and an improving Nebraska team). Truthfully, Wisconsin's statistics are a bit inflated due to their lack of strong competition, but Jonathan Taylor is the real deal. Purdue is going to have to stop him (66th best run D in NCAA out of 129 teams, allowing on average 151.0 YPG) if they want a chance to stun the Badgers in Camp Randall.

2. One of Purdue's biggest problems this year has been keeping their quarterback upright. The Boilermakers have allowed an average of 3.4 sacks per game, and to make this worse, Wisconsin is 9th in the NCAA in sacks per game (3.4). If Purdue cannot protect their signal caller, it will be a long day in Madison.

3. Wisconsin has picked off 8 passes this season, and have returned three to the house. Purdue has thrown 6 interceptions this season, and they are on the road and in a hostile environment against an elite defense. Wisconsin usually wins the turnover battle, so it is essential that Blough or Sindelar do not throw any INTs, or it could be a long day for Purdue.

Picks:

Jett: Purdue Boilermakers

Matt: Wisconsin Badgers

#10 Auburn Tigers @ LSU Tigers

-In the battle of the Tigers, this SEC throwdown should be an extremely close game, but not be the most entertaining game on Saturday. Both teams usually play low scoring games, although Auburn does have the offense to potentially win a higher scoring game. I personally picked Auburn to make the College Football Playoff, and I am staying by that prediction, as I think Jarrett Stidham can lead the team to an extremely successful season. However, LSU isn't called "Death Valley" for nothing, and although this isn't a night game, it won't be easy for Auburn to win.

-Let's start with the visiting Auburn Tigers, led by transfer QB Jarrett Stidham, who has started to pick up his play after the disaster game in the other Death Valley in Clemson, South Carolina. Auburn also has a dynamic 1-2 punch at RB in juniors Kerryon Johnson and Kamryn Pettway, although the two have yet to play in a game together. Pettway is not expected to play tomorrow. However, Auburn is a solid offensive team, ranking 39th in total offense this season despite that terrible showing against Clemson. Auburn also has an elite defense, as they rank 22nd in defending the run, which should help enormously against star RB Derrius Guice. This is a huge game for the Auburn Tigers, as LSU looks to have righted the ship with a massive win in the Swamp last weekend against the Florida Gators. LSU has struggled against teams that can score this season (Troy, Mississippi State), and Auburn beat Mississippi State, so this is a very intriguing game.

-For LSU, everything starts and ends with their defense and running game. Derrius Guice is a star tailback, but unfortunately, he has barely been able to see the field consistently due to nagging injuries. It appears that Guice will be limited for this game, which is a slight boost for Auburn. LSU will have to rely on senior running back Darrel Williams, who has had a nice year, averaging 4.8 YPC and 5 TDs. LSU's QB, Danny Etling will be asked to not lose the game for the Tigers, but he's not the type of player that can drive an offense consistently down the field. That's why the LSU defense is so important, and their defense is highlighted by potential top-5 pick DE/OLB Arden Key. Key hasn't been a huge player this year as he has also struggled with injuries, but if LSU wants to upset Auburn, they're going to need him to come through. LSU is one of the best defenses in the nation in passing yards allowed (19th in NCAA), and that should help slow down Jarrett Stidham and Ryan Davis. However, if Guice isn't fully healthy, it looks like Danny Etling may be asked to do more then he's capable of.

Key Things to Remember:

1. Auburn is one of the least penalized teams in CFB (tied-8th), but LSU is near the bottom (tied-83rd). If LSU plays undisciplined ball and gives Auburn free first downs, their biggest strength (defense) is negated. If LSU can commit around 5 or fewer penalties, they have a chance.

2. Auburn has struggled to protect Jarrett Stidham this year, and although Clemson sacked Stidham seven times, he has been sacked 12 times in the other 5 games this season (against Georgia Southern, Mercer, Missouri, Mississippi State and Ole Miss), all against teams that aren't in the top 50 teams for sack leaders. Auburn cannot protect Stidham, and LSU has averaged 3.33 sacks a game, 10th best in the NCAA. Auburn's o-line has been a cause for concern all season, and now going on the road against a fearsome front, Auburn could have some serious issues on the line this game.

3. LSU has averaged 201 YPG through the air, and if Guice continues to be limited, they're going to have to get more from their aerial attack. However, Auburn's secondary is not the type to allow a ton of yards, giving up an average of 176.3 per game. That is a recipe for disaster for LSU, and unless Guice and Williams can hit some chunk plays, it looks like this game might end with a score around 13-9.

Picks:

Jett: Auburn Tigers

Matt: Auburn Tigers

#12 Oklahoma Sooners @ Texas Longhorns

-There is nothing like the Red River Rivalry, and although Texas hasn't been as great in the past 2-3 years, this rivalry game is still in that top-tier of best games in college football. Oklahoma fell nine spots in the poll after a stunning loss at home to an Iowa State team that started its third string QB. Texas, however, might be back, as freshman gunslinger Sam Ehlinger continues to impress, and Texas has been competitive in nearly every game they have played this season. This might be the best game of the weekend.

-Oklahoma is a high-powered offense, thanks to star QB Baker Mayfield. Although Mayfield doesn't have the elite talent around him like last year (no Mixon, Perine or Westbrook), he is still putting up Heisman caliber numbers; having 15 TDs to 0 INTs. Mayfield needs a better performance from his offensive line, as they struggled against Iowa State's pass rush, and more help from his supporting cast. If Abdul Adams is able to play, that would be huge news for the Sooners, as him and Trey Sermon are a nice 1-2 punch out of the backfield. Additionally, stud freshman receiver CeeDee Lamb is highly questionable, as he got hurt in the loss to Iowa State. Lamb would be a huge loss for the Oklahoma receiving core, and guys like tight end Mark Andrews and halfback Dimitri Flowers will have to step up in the pass catching game.

-Texas is a team that I absolutely love; between the program's tradition, state of the art facilities, and Tom Herman, this is a traditional power that is tough to hate. It appears as if freshman Sam Ehlinger has won the starting QB battle, as Shane Buechele's injuries have paved way for Ehlinger to shine. If Ehlinger does indeed start, then Texas has a really good chance for the upset, as he has had memorable moments, especially in Pasadena against the USC Trojans. The Longhorns are still trying to find something by running the football, which hurts because of the huge loss to potential top-5 pick Connor Williams. Ehlinger should rely on stud sophomore Collin Johnson as his primary target, and Johnson could have a field day given his 6'6 frame and a poor Oklahoma defense. Also, keep an eye on freshman receiver Reggie Hehmphill-Mapps, who is coming off of a 12 rec, 121 yard performance. These two could make the difference in what should be a close affair.

Key Things to Remember:

1. Oklahoma is the 13th best team in the nation on converting third downs, Texas is the 9th best at stopping teams on third down. This should be an interesting battle here, and if Abdul Adams and CeeDee Lamb are out, I think Texas can win this third down battle, and in turn, will probably have a great chance to win the game.

2. Oklahoma is 79th in the NCAA in passing yards allowed per game, which is a little below average. However, Texas is ranked 97th, which is way below average. Both teams should be able to throw the ball at will, so this game could come down to which defense can force Ehlinger/Mayfield to make a mistake, or can get one stop. Johnson & Hehmphill-Mapps can be the difference for Texas, as Oklahoma has struggled in past games against the pass. However, Mayfield hasn't thrown an interception all year, and if Texas can't trick him into a mistake, it could be a long night for the Longhorns secondary.

3. Despite Mayfield not having an INT all season, Oklahoma still sports a negative turnover margin. Truthfully, that is embarassing, and while Oklahoma has fumbled the football a ton (6 fumbles lost), they have only generated 5 turnovers on the season. Texas, however, has created 9 turnovers, however, only one is off of a fumble recovery. If Ehlinger can take care of the football, and if Oklahoma has one of their patented fumbles, Texas might gain a significant edge, regardless of whether Adams or Lamb play.

Picks:

Jett: Texas Longhorns

Matt: Texas Longhorns

Texas A&M Aggies @ Florida Gators

-Another SEC battle here that we'll be previewing, and one that could go under the radar again. Many people believe A&M stinks this year because of their epic collapse Week 1 against UCLA, but they have actually rebounded fairly nicely, and are currently sitting at 4-2 after suffering a 27-19 defeat to Alabama. Florida, however, was a team I boldly predicted would finish 7-5 this season, and truthfully, should be much worse than their 3-2 record. Feleipe Franks had to throw a hail mary to beat a lost Tennessee team at home, they needed Kentucky to forget how to play defense to beat them, and narrowly beat Vanderbilt. Truthfully, the Florida Gators could easily be 1-4 right now.

-Texas A&M is currently operating with a freshman QB in Kellen Mond. Mond has been up and down this season, but he has been tremendous using his legs, as he has 65 carries for 266 yards and 2 TDs. Add in star RB Trayveon Williams, and one of the best recievers in college football in Christian Kirk, and you realize why A&M has stayed afloat despite losing their top two quarterbacks. Texas A&M is also coming off of a huge moral victory; losing by one posession to Alabama, even at home in an environment like Kyle Field, is a huge success. Mond has confidence, Kirk should be able to be open more frequently since he won't be lined up against Minkah Fitzpatrick, and Trayveon Williams should find more holes. If Texas A&M can eliminate Florida's running game and make Feleipe Franks throw, they might escape a night game at the Swamp with a W.

-The Florida Gators have the same problem every year; their defense is elite enough to keep them in the game, but their offense can never come through. There is an exception this year, as starting RB Jordan Scarlett and star WR Antonio Callaway have been suspended indefinitely, but Feleipe Franks was supposed to be the guy. Franks has been abysmal, and outside of the hail mary against Tennessee, he really hasn't done anything noteworthy. However, Florida does have a potential star RB in freshman Malik Davis, although for some inexplicable reason, he's been splitting duties with Lamical Perine despite averaging 2.8 YPC more. If Florida hands this offense over to Davis, then they might be able to win a few games with ease, but their timeshare is killing this offense. To make it even worse for the Gators, #1 WR Tyrie Cleveland is not expected to play. Cleveland is the only Gator reciever to have over 125 yards receiving this year, and without him, it should be tough for the Gators to win, even in the Swamp.

Key Things to Remember:

1. Both teams are not huge threats in the passing game, so this game could be decided by run defense. Florida ranks 71st in the NCAA (allowing 4.29 YPC), while Texas A&M ranks 29th in the NCAA (allowing 3.56 YPC). If these numbers hold, then Texas A&M might not need Kellen Mond to throw a ton in a hostile environment on the road, and Florida might ask Franks to do a little more with his arm.

2. This stat should come as a huge surprise; Texas A&M is second in the NCAA in average sacks per game at 3.83 per game. That is the strength of the Aggies defense, but what makes this a deadly combination is the Florida Gators have allowed an average of 3 sacks per game. This is a recipe for disaster, although A&M also allows a lot of sacks and Florida can get to the QB as well. Expect this to be a gross offensive affair, but if Florida cannot protect Franks, it will be a long night.

3. Florida commits on average 7.4 penalties per game. Couple this with going against a stout run defense, a team that can get to the QB, and this makes it look like Florida will have to convert on third downs. For the season, they convert on 34.8% of third downs, good for 96th in the NCAA. On the other side, Texas A&M ranks 15th in third down defense. Florida has to hope that young Kellen Mond will be fazed by the alligator themed uniforms and by the Swamp at night, or it will be a long night for the Gators.

Picks:

Jett: Florida Gators

Matt: Texas A&M Aggies

#9 Ohio State Buckeyes @ Nebraska Cornhuskers

-In a battle of two traditional power houses, I think this game might be one of the more entertaining Big 10 battles we see this season. Going into Memorial Stadium at night is one of the hardest things to do in college football, and Lincoln is at least a top-15 college football venue. Ohio State has a huge talent advantage, but ever since Nebraska was embarassed by Northern Illinois, they have recovered, playing Wisconsin tighter than the score indicates, and beating Illinois. This game I think will be closer than the experts think (as Lee Corso says), much closer.

-Starting with Ohio State, if they did not lose to Oklahoma at home, they would probably be ranked #3 in the AP Poll. Ohio State has a plethora of offensive talent in star QB J.T. Barrett, RBs Mike Weber & J.K. Dobbins, and wide receiver Parris Campbell. Ohio State did just lose their starting RG to a season-ending injury, but I think they have enough talent and depth to overcome that. The biggest problem for the Buckeyes over the past two years has been opening up their offense, and if their playcalling isn't too conservative, they could win big at Nebraska.

-Nebraska started out the season rough, with an embarassing loss at home to a Northern Illinois team that they paid to come. However, Nebraska has somewhat righted the ship, and it's because QB Tanner Lee has started to play better. Lee is insanely turnover prone, but he is capable of making some special throws, and if he can limit the dumb mistakes against an elite Ohio State defense, than the Huskers can pull the upset at home.

Key Things to Remember:

1. Ohio State has forced 6 interceptions this season, Tanner Lee has thrown 10. I think you all know where I'm going with this; Tanner Lee will probably be intercepted at least once in this game. If Lee can somehow avoid turnovers, he has the talent to get some big plays to his number one receiver Stanley Morgan, who has speed to burn. The big question is, can Tanner Lee take care of the football?

2. Ohio State is averaging 245.8 YPG on the ground, good for the 18th best mark in college football. Nebraska is allowing 147.0 YPG, the number that shot up after facing Jonathan Taylor last weekend. Nebraska isn't terrible against the run, and if they can slow down Weber or Dobbins, then expect Ohio State's offense to stall.

3. Ohio State commits 7.5 penalties per game, tied for 104th in the NCAA. Ohio State is undiscplined, and considering the crowd noise and a backup guard, they might have their fair share of false starts. If Nebraska gets an early lead, perhaps Ohio State gets frustrated, and commits penalties that sink their team, and allows the Huskers to shock the world.

Picks:

Jett: Ohio State Buckeyes

Matt: Nebraska Cornhuskers

OTHER GAMES:

#8 TCU Horned Frogs @ Kansas State Wildcats

-While Alex Delton performed admirably in place of Jesse Ertz last weekend, TCU is a different defensive monster than Texas. Expect Kenny Hill to lead the Horned Frogs to a win this weekend, even on the road against an underrated K-State team.

Picks:

Jett: TCU Horned Frogs

Matt: TCU Horned Frogs

#17 Michigan Wolverines @ Indiana Hoosiers

-Michigan needs a win after a disgusting home loss to Michigan State. Indiana is the perfect team for Michigan to play, as they aren't particularly strong on defense. Expect Indiana to struggle to get stud Simmie Cobbs involved, and struggle to move the football. Michigan should win this game in what should be a raucous Memorial Stadium.

Picks:

Jett: Michigan Wolverines

Matt: Michigan Wolverines

#24 Texas Tech Red Raiders @ West Virginia Mountaineers

-How do you say offense? This game could easily score over 100 total points, and should be a breath of fresh air considering we'll be watching Auburn-LSU and Texas A&M-Florida. Expect Will Grier and David Sills V to go back and forth with Nic Shimonek and Keke Coutee all game. This should be a close one, which is why Jett and I are split.

Picks:

Jett: Texas Tech Red Raiders

Matt: West Virginia Mountaineers

Florida State Seminoles @ Duke Blue Devils

-Who could've imagined that Duke would have a better record than Florida State in the middle of October? Duke has been a pleasant surprise this year, while Florida State's season was ruined by DeAndre Francois' injury. Florida State is still the more talented team, and Duke just lost to UVA on the road. This could be a close game, but neither me nor Jett believe Duke can steal this one.

Picks:

Jett: Florida State Seminoles

Matt: Florida State Seminoles

South Carolina Gamecocks @ Tennessee Volunteers

-This game will probably be tight, but who knows if it will actually be exciting. Tennessee has been an enigma all season; starting the year ranked at #25, barely escaping Georgia Tech, losing on a hail mary to Florida, then getting blown out by Georgia and people calling for Butch Jones to be canned. South Carolina has lost its top playmaker in Deebo Samuel, but QB Jake Bentley is still supremely talented. This is another game Jett and I were split on, with me simply opting for the atmosphere in Knoxville as the difference.

Picks:

Jett: South Carolina Gamecocks

Matt: Tennessee Volunteers

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ #11 Miami Hurricanes

-I love rooting for the Miami Hurricanes; ever since I was little I liked that team. While I am a Wisconsin fan, I do root for plenty of other teams as well (Clemson, Oregon, Georgia, Miami), but I think this is a trap game for Miami. Miami just lost star RB Mark Walton, is coming off of a huge win against the arch nemesis Florida State, and is probably still living off that win. Georgia Tech is a tough team to defend and gameplan against due to the triple option, and although Miami has an elite defense, I personally believe Georgia Tech has the ingredients to pull an upset.

Picks:

Jett: Miami Hurricanes

Matt: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

#25 Navy Midshipmen @ Memphis Tigers

-Navy at Memphis is an extremely intriguing game, as two high-powered offenses will face off. Riley Ferguson is having a phenomenal year for Memphis, and it'll be tough for the Midshipmen to keep up on the scoreboard. I think this could be a game that finishes with a 52-42 final, but it'll be close enough to cause Jett and I to disagree.

Picks:

Jett: Navy Midshipmen

Matt: Memphis Tigers

Arkansas Razorbacks @ #1 Alabama Crimson Tide

-Truthfully, we're picking this one just because it's hard to pick games without including the #1 team in the nation. Arkansas might not even have their starting QB, but it doesn't matter. Bama will win this game by at least 5 touchdowns.

Picks:

Jett: Alabama Crimson Tide

Matt: Alabama Crimson Tide

Utah Utes @ #13 USC Trojans

-If USC didn't lose to Washington State then I would say this could be a trap game for the Trojans. Utah has a lot of talent, including WR Darren Carrington who transferred from Oregon after he was dismissed from the team. USC also has a ton of talent, including Sam Darnold who has been a bit of a dissapointment after a magical first season. USC is at home, and should be playing looser since they have that loss under their belt. Trojans should take this one

Picks:

Jett: USC Trojans

Matt: USC Trojans

#21 Michigan State Spartans @ Minnesota Golden Gophers

-We LOVE P.J. Fleck, but he inherited a Minnesota team that frankly, isn't very good. Give him a few years and we guarantee that Minnesota will be a threat in the Big 10, and I believe this game will be a tough test for a Michigan State team coming off a huge win against Michigan. Michigan State will win in my opinion, but our love for P.J. Fleck has Jett taking the Gophers.

Picks:

Jett: Minnesota Golden Gophers

Matt: Michigan State Spartans

Oregon Ducks @ #23 Stanford Cardinal

-If Justin Herbert was healthy, then this game might've been the best of the week. Oregon and Stanford have had some great games during the Chip Kelly/Jim Harbaugh era, but this game doesn't have the same feel without Oregon's starting QB. Stopping Bryce Love isn't easy, and considering Oregon is still growing defensively, expect Love to have a day.

Picks:

Jett: Stanford Cardinal

Matt: Stanford Cardinal

TOTAL SEASON RECORDS:

Jett: 41-27 (60.29% correct)

Matt: 49-19 (72.06% correct)