2016 NFL MVP Rankings and Predictions
The last two days we looked at the best players at each position on offense and defense. Today, we are taking a look at the top MVP candidates and making our final predictions. The 2016 NFL MVP race is anything but clear. With several top candidates, the voting can go any which way. Let’s first take a look at the top candidates and their case for and against, then rank them in the order in which they should fall in the final voting.
Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott: Zeke led the league in rushing by over 300 yards while sitting out a game. He was the primary reason the Cowboys were able to play their time control ground and pound offense, allowing the defense to be way more effective than they should have been. Dak had 23 TD’s to just 4 INT’s and his ability to take care of the ball provided a ton of value in the Cowboys time control offense. His ability as a dual threat helped open things up even more for Elliott in the run game and read option. Both will get support because of their success in leading Dallas to a 13-2 record before mailing it in week 17. What is the case against? It’s hard to even say for sure who the MVP of the Cowboys is, so that makes it hard for any of them to win MVP of the league. Is it Dak? Is it Zeke? Is it the offensive line? Everyone will make a different case.
Tom Brady: Brady put up mind boggling numbers this season with 28 TD’s and 2 INT’s. The Patriots went 11-1 in his starts and 14-2 on the season. The only case against is that he was suspended for the first 4 games and the Patriots went 3-1. How can he win with only 12 great games vs other guys playing 16 great games? If the Patriots were still 3-1 without him, how valuable is he?
Matt Ryan: Ryan had almost 5,000 yards, 38 TD’s, 7 INT’s, and a first round bye in the playoffs. He led the league in QB rating and total QBR. He was arguably the most consistent quarterback all season start to finish. What is the case against? The Falcons were only 11-5, while the Patriots were 14-2 and the Cowboys were 13-3. The Falcons had a first round bye but still not the same kind of dominant success as the teams who have other candidates on the ballot.
Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers famously made his run the table prediction and followed through on it, paving his way for a spot on this list. The 6-0 finish to win the division, along with his 40 TD’s to 7 INT’s make a very strong case for. The case against is that Rodgers being on the list through 10 games this season would have been laughable. How can he win with 6 dominant games if the case against Tom Brady is that he only has 12?
Derek Carr: Carr led a resurgent Raiders team to a 12-3 record and was in position for a first round bye before he broke his leg week 16. He had almost 4,000 yards, 28 TD’s, 6 INT’s, and most notably was one of the best quarterbacks in the fourth quarter all season. The case against? Carr’s numbers aren’t as eye popping as the others on the list. He is quite a bit down the ranks in total QBR, and without some miraculous 4th quarter comebacks we wouldn’t even be talking about him being on the list.
Matthew Stafford: The biggest case for Stafford is all the incredible 4th quarter comebacks. The Lions came from behind to win in 8 of their 9 games. That paired with his 4,300 yards, 24 TD’s, and 10 INT’s make a pretty good case for. The case against? If Stafford is so good, why did he have to come from behind in 8 of 9 wins? And why couldn’t the Lions finish off the division title? Dropping to a wild card hurts Stafford significantly.
Le’Veon Bell: Bell’s numbers were historic and the Steelers were dominant down the stretch in winning their division title. In 12 games, he racked up nearly 1,900 yards from scrimmage and single handedly carried to Steelers to some wins. The case against? With only 12 games, it is nearly impossible for a running back to win MVP, no matter how historic those numbers were.
The final ranking prediction:
1) Matt Ryan
2) Tom Brady
3) Ezekiel Elliott
4) Aaron Rodgers
5) Derek Carr
6) Le’Veon Bell
7) Dak Prescott
8) Matthew Stafford
Right now our best guess is that Ryan will win due to his incredible season over 16 games. That will give him the edge over Brady with his 12 games, and Rodgers who struggled out of the gate. Dak and Zeke will take away from each other, while Bell will be hurt by a short season and positional value. Stafford and Carr wont quite measure up with the historic numbers of the others.
What do you think? How will the final voting pan out? Comment and let us know! Stay tuned for more current sports stories. Don't forget to follow us on social media. You can find us on Facebook, Instagram @beyondthemetrics, and Twitter @byondthemetrics