AFC Playoff Predictions
Yesterday, we took a look at the NFC playoff picture and made our predictions. In the last couple weeks, with the fall off of the Broncos and the surges made by several teams, the AFC playoff picture has heated up significantly. Let’s take a look at the playoff spots that are still up for grabs.
AFC North Division Winner: This is a two-horse race between the Steelers and the Ravens. The Steelers currently hold a one game lead while the Ravens beat them head to head earlier this season. The Steelers have the edge in the remaining schedule, hosting Baltimore this week and hosting Cleveland week 17, while Baltimore travels to Pittsburgh this week and travels to Cincinnati next week. In all likelihood, the winner of the week 16 head to head matchup will win the division. Right now, the edge will go to Pittsburgh for both week 16 and the division.
AFC South Division Winner: Earlier in the season, this looked like the Texans division to lose, and while they still sit atop the South, things have tightened up dramatically. They currently sit at 8-6, while the Titans are also 8-6 and the Colts are 7-7. Houston has the tie-breaking edge over everyone with a current 5-0 division record, with their only remaining division game at Tennessee week 17, which very well may be for the division. The Colts are in an extremely difficult position, being down 1 game and traveling to Oakland this week. For this reason, we will predict the division will come down to Houston and Tennessee. Both teams have favorable matchups week 16 with the Texans facing Cincinnati and the Titans facing Jacksonville. The prediction right now is that Tennessee wins week 17 at home vs Houston for the division.
Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
AFC West Division Winner: With the collapse of the Broncos, this division has come down to Oakland and Kansas City. Oakland has a 1 game lead currently, but Kansas City swept Oakland this season for the head to head tiebreaker. Both teams still have to face Denver, while Oakland also still has Indy and Kansas City still has San Diego. Denver will have the chance to play spoiler for either team. Could Denver knock off Oakland week 17 to open the door for the division for Kansas City? The guess right now is that just may happen.
Wild Card Winners: It is all but official that the loser of the AFC West division will take one of the two wild card spots, so following our prediction above of Kansas City winning the division, we will pick Oakland for the first wild card spot. The second wild card is where things get crazy. There are four teams in Miami, Baltimore, Denver, and Tennessee/Houston competing for the second wild card spot with Miami having a one game advantage at 9-5 over the rest at 8-6. Above we predicted Tennessee would win their division, so for the purposes of this wild card discussion we will use Houston as the fourth team. Above we predicted a 9-7 record for Houston, which will not be enough unless they get a lot of help, so we will rule them out. With Denver still facing Kansas City and Oakland, things will be extremely difficult for them. Above we predicted they will lose to Kansas City and Beat Oakland, which will also lead to 9-7 for them and not be enough for the 2nd wild card. We also predicted a Baltimore loss to Pittsburgh, leading to a 9-7 record for them as well. This leaves Miami with the ability to just go 1-1 and it will be enough to win the 2nd wild card in this scenario. Miami faces Buffalo and New England weeks 16 and 17, which makes 1-1 no small task. They may be lucky enough to get a New England team resting week 17 once their spot is already locked up. The guess right now is they will manage to beat Buffalo making the New England game irrelevant either way, and Miami takes the 2nd wild card spot.
Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
To summarize all the races discussed above, we believe the AFC final playoff seedings will look like this:
1) New England
2) Kansas City
3) Pittsburgh
4) Tennessee
5) Oakland
6) Miami
We will once again roll out our predictions in the AFC and NFC next week going into the week 17 slate of games. How do you think the AFC playoff picture will play out? Comment and let us know! Stay tuned for more current sports stories. Don't forget to follow us on social media. You can find us on Facebook, Instagram @beyondthemetrics, and Twitter @byondthemetrics.
