MLB Preseason Award Picks
Every year, people want to predict who is going to win the big awards before the season even starts, and every year there is some huge surprises that no one could have predicted. That’s not going to stop us from trying though.
Some of these are pretty easy- Everyone pretty much knew Corey Seager would be Rookie of the Year last year. Some seemingly come out of nowhere- who guessed Rick Porcello would win AL Cy Young? Don’t lie.
Today, in the 7th post in our series of baseball previews, we will be giving our predictions for each league’s MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year. We’ll give our top five for the MVP and Cy Young, along with a sleeper pick, and top three for ROY along with a sleeper pick. On Sunday, we will have our Way Too Early Postseason Picks for you. Sunday is opening day, so get ready baseball fans! That said, let's dig into our preseason picks to win the seasonal awards this year.
AL MVP:
1) Francisco Lindor: Now this may seem like a surprise pick to some, considering Mike Trout’s status as undisputed best player in the world, but this looks like the year that Lindor could make as strong of a run at MVP as Mookie Betts did last year. We all knew how good Betts was, but was anyone picking him for MVP? Probably not many. Everyone knows Lindor is great, but we’re expecting him to take that next step this year. He will certainly have an edge in team success over Trout, which always seems to factor against Trout. Something like a .320 average, 20 homers, 20 steals, and gold glove defense, along with a 1st place team, may be enough to put Lindor over the top.
2) Mike Trout: You can’t really leave Trout out of the top 2, he’s just too good. Unless he misses significant time due to injury, his name will be among the top names for the award. This could be his 6th straight year in the top 2 for the award. Expect another .300+ average and a possible 30 homer 30 steal season, but team success will once again hold him back.
3) Carlos Correa: Correa is definitely on the cusp of being one of the top five players in the game, and this could be the year he takes the step from all-star to MVP candidate. If the Astros are in contention in September, it will likely be largely due to Correa playing at an extremely high level. This is a guy who may hit 40 doubles and 30 homers, and if he can bump his average to nearly .300 along with all the walks he draws, he will be in the conversation.
4) Mookie Betts: The Red Sox should once again be a great team and Betts is their best player. Can he be even better than last year? That is a scary thought. This guy is one of the top few players in the game. Expect a potential 30 homer 30 steal season with a high average and elite defense. It would not be a surprise at all to see Betts take 1st place after how he broke out last year.
5) Josh Donaldson: Donaldson seems to be that guy who is always in the discussion but never the favorite. He puts up monster numbers on good teams but always seems to slot just behind Trout and whoever the other guy is that is having a historically great year. It will likely be another year of around a .290 average and 40 homers and 100+ RBI’s with good defense, and another year in the top five of the MVP but not first.
Sleeper- Gary Sanchez: Could he possibly continue at as high of a level as he played last year? That seems unrealistic, but if he does he will be in the top few being considered. If 2017 is a continuation of 2016 for Gary, he could hit close to .300 with 35 homers and 100 RBI’s with good defense at catcher, which in every possibly way is an MVP candidate. It’s more realistic to expect a little regression from his historic rookie season, but you just never know.
NL MVP:
1) Corey Seager: Seager may follow right in Kris Bryant’s footsteps as ROY one year followed by MVP the next. Seager was a serious MVP candidate as a rookie, and if he progresses in his 2nd year he may take top honors this year. Expect a .300+ average with 30+ homers on a likely 1st place team, and it may be enough to put Seager on top.
2) Kris Bryant: Bryant is already undisputedly one of the top five players in the game, and last year may be the first of a string of top finishes. Seager and Bryant will likely be duking it out for this award year after year for the foreseeable future. Bryant will likely go for 40+ homers again on a serious World Series contender, which along with his eye, baserunning, and high level defense, puts him squarely in the MVP conversation again.
3) Bryce Harper: 2016 surely was a fluke for Harper, right? There’s no way he can go from historically good to just not that good when he is still in his early 20’s. We’re expecting a bounce back year for Harper, and if he is 80% of what he was in 2015 he will be in the top five for thr MVP this year.
4) Nolan Arenado: Arenado is a bit of a victim of a bad team and Coors field, but this guy is special. Year after year he puts up some of the biggest numbers in baseball and it’s always dismissed by saying “well he plays at Coors”. For that reason, he has a little bit of Josh Donaldson syndrome- always a top five guy but never THE guy. It’ll be another year of 40+ homers and 100+ RBI’s and elite defense and another year not winning the MVP.
5) Anthony Rizzo: Rizzo is likely going to be punished a little by playing on the same team as Bryant and Bryant being the best player on the team, but Rizzo is a contributor to just how good Bryant is. Without Rizzo’s protection in the lineup, Bryant would probably walk 150 time per year. Rizzo will likely once again put up 30 homers and 100 RBI’s while quietly playing 2nd fiddle to Bryant. Good enough to be in the conversation, but not good enough to win.
Sleeper- Andrew McCutchen: Is anyone really buying the fact that McCutchen just went from MVP candidate to flat out bad overnight? We think there HAS to be a bounce back year in store for McCutchen. Think Robinson Cano in 2015 and 2016, and you have the same feel with McCutchen. A finish around 6th or 7th is probably more likely, but if he leads a resurgent Pirates team to the playoffs he can make a push to the top.
AL Cy Young:
1) Chris Sale: Sale pays off the Red Sox in a big way by delivering a Cy Young season. He has been on the cusp for years, but can’t seem to get over the top. Give him the Red Sox lineup for run support, and Sale has a much better opportunity to rack up more wins. It could be the same type of 22-4 year that Porcello had last year.
2) Corey Kluber: Kluber is really, really good, and pitches on a really, really good team. He’s becoming a fixture on this list, and that doesn’t seem poised to change anytime soon. Expect another year of 16-20 wins for Kluber to go with an ERA around 3.00 and a lot of K’s.
3) Aaron Sanchez: Sanchez really blew up last year in a way that could not have been fully expected. Making the transition from bullpen to starting, all he did was go 15-2 with a 3.00 ERA. With a full year of starting under his belt, he should only get better in his age 24 season. With the Blue Jays power, he is sure to get some run support, and could be a potential 20 game winner this year.
4) Masahiro Tanaka: Tanaka very quietly put up some really impressive numbers last year. He was 14-4 with a 3.07 ERA, and was the only starter the Yankees could truly count on. He was on fire in spring training, and if he rolls that success right into a big April, it could set the tone for taking the next step to true Cy Young contender this year.
5) David Price: Price was a disaster at the beginning of last year but really came on strong in the 2nd half. If he puts two halves together this year like he pitched in the 2nd half last year, he will be back in contention this season. Even with as poor as he pitched early last year, he still posted a 17-9 record and 230 innings pitched. He could be a 20 game winner this year for an excellent Boston team.
Sleeper- Andrew Miller: It seems blasphemous to name a relief pitcher, but if Miller pitches like he did in the post season last year, he could make a push into Cy Young contention. This is a guy who make keep his ERA down around 1.00 while pitching a ton of high leverage innings for a World Series contender. That warrants consideration.
NL Cy Young:
1) Clayton Kershaw: Kershaw doesn’t suffer from Trout syndrome and losing votes because of team success. Kershaw is the best pitcher in the game and it isn’t even close, and he plays on a really good team. If he makes 30+ starts, he will without a doubt be in the top three, and will only be passed by someone if they have a historic level season such Zack Greinke and Jake Arrieta in 2015.
2) Noah Syndegaard: Syndegaard took a step forward last year dropping his ERA into the mid 2’s and striking out even more batters. This year Syndegaard can become a true contender for the Cy Young if he takes the next step in going deeper into games. He pitched 183 innings as an ace last year, and that is not Cy Young worthy unless you put up Kershaw numbers. If he can start going deeper into games and throw 210+ innings, he will finish in the top three of the Cy Young this season.
3) Max Scherzer: Scherzer is the guy that not a ton of people seem to pick in the beginning of the year but is always there at the end of the year. This guy is a true horse who will give you 33 starts year in and year out, with a ton of K’s and a low ERA. Pitching on a likely playoff team, that will put him squarely back in contention this year for a possible back to back Cy Young’s and the 3rd of his career.
4) Madison Bumgarner: It’s not necessarily a matter of whethr MadBum will pitch at a Cy Young level, it is more a matter of whether the Giants are in contention. MadBum is going to give you his 33 starts and 210+ innings and a sub 3.00 ERA, but how good the Giants are could dictate how good his win-loss record is, which will be a major contributor in his Cy Young chances.
5) Jake Arrieta: Arrieta may not be considered the “ace” by the Cubs management, but he is their best pitcher. He regressed a bit in 2016 after a historic 2015, but still went 18-8 with a 3.10 ERA. Expect him to crank it up a bit more again this year and make a run at 20 wins with a sub 3.00 ERA.
Sleeper- Jacob deGrom: It’s really a matter of whether deGrom can pitch at least 200 innings. His numbers year after year are always great, but he doesn’t pitch enough innings. If deGrom can make 30+ starts and top 200 innings, he is sure to be in the top five, and is good enough to make a run at the top spot.
AL Rookie of the Year:
1) Andrew Benintendi: This one is the obvious pick, much like Seager last year. If Benintendi is healthy, there is an extremely high likelihood of him taking home the award. He will be an everyday starter on a World Series contender and likely hit around .300 with a lot of extra base hits and good defense. Enough said.
2) Lucas Giolito: Giolito is part of the big return in the Chris Sale trade, and is expected to be a front-line starter in the future. He’ll get his chance to show what he’s made of this year, and he very well may be a candidate much like Michael Fulmer last year. If he can keep his ERA under 4.00, he will be in the conversation.
3) Aaron Judge: Judge is a bit of a wild card. He won the starting job coming out of spring training, but it wouldn’t be terribly surprising to see him struggle early and lose some playing time. If he can play well enough to keep his starting spot, there’s the potential for 25-30 homers, which will put him in the conversation.
Sleeper- Mitch Haniger is going to be starting in right field for the Mariners, and he’s a plus defender and is coming off a big spring training at the plate. He may keep the momentum rolling right into a big season
NL Rookie of the Year:
1) Dansby Swanson: This is another obvious pick much like Benintendi. If all goes as expected, Swanson and Benintendi will run away with the ROY awards. Swanson played well after a call up last year, and is a solid all-around shortstop for the Braves. He will be allowed to play through any struggles, but don’t expect many struggles. This guy could be a .300 hitter with a ton of extra base hits just like Benintendi.
2) Josh Bell: Bell played well after a call up by the Pirates last year. This is a guy who does all his damage at the plate. He has a nice stroke and a great eye, and may even walk more than he strikes out, a rarity in today’s MLB. He will be a nice addition to the Pirates lineup, and will be in the conversation for ROY so long as he doesn’t cost the team too many runs in the field.
3) Hunter Renfroe: Renfroe is a nice power bat for the Padres to add to their lineup, and will not have much competition pushing him if he struggles. Being able to play in 150 games as a power bat is usually enough to get you into the ROY conversation.
Sleeper- Manuel Margot: Margot plays great defense in center field and is a huge threat on the bases. He has pretty good on-base skills, and if he can show that in the majors he can be a 30+ steal threat. A solid OBP, a good amount of steals, and elite defense in center field could be enough to push Margot to the top.
Who are some of your favorites for this seasons awards? Comment and let us know! Stay tuned for more current sports stories. Don't forget to follow us on social media. You can find us on Facebook, Instagram @beyondthemetrics, and Twitter @byondthemetrics
