Super Bowl LI Breakdown
Alright sports fans, this Super Bowl is an advanced metrics dream! We have the top scoring offense in Atlanta taking on the top scoring defense in New England. It’s the type of strength versus strength matchup you hope to see in the Super Bowl every year. Or is it? We’re here to give you a look beyond the metrics with our complete Super Bowl breakdown and our prediction.
Let’s start with the offenses. Atlanta’s high-octane offense put up 30 points in 13 of their 18 games to this point, and was only held under 20 once. They were easily the top offense in the game this year behind the likely MVP in Matt Ryan and his plethora of weapons. Meanwhile, Brady was Brady en-route to an 11-1 record in his starts and the 3rd ranked scoring offense. If not for the goose egg in the game before Brady returned from his 4 game deflate-gate suspension, New England may have ranked even higher, possibly supplanting #2 New Orleans.
On defense, New England featured the top ranked scoring defense on the season while Atlanta was 27th in scoring defense. Simply put, New England was winning on both sides of the ball while Atlanta was winning shootouts, as they were just too tough to stop. That makes this game easy then, right? New England is an overall stronger team and will slow Atlanta while rolling on offense. Not so fast.
We know both teams can score, but how did they fare against top defenses? Including the playoffs, New England faced a top 10 scoring defense 6 times and in those games, they went 5-1, averaging 28 points per game. Atlanta only played 4 such games, and went 2-2 averaging 27.75 points per game. Against top defenses, New England has had more success. With both teams putting up this many points per game even against top defenses, there is no questioning the offense. Both offenses are worthy of their #1 and #3 rankings.
How about against top offenses? New England played 5 games against top 10 scoring offenses, and went 4-1 in those games, allowing an average of 19 points per game. Atlanta played 7 such games, going 6-1 in those games, allowing 28.14 points per game. Looking at this comparison, New England was able to slow down top offenses while Atlanta was able to out shoot them. But let’s take this comparison one step further. How did each team fare against top opposing quarterbacks? Just looking at the opposing quarterbacks were tasked with stopping, there is a huge discrepancy.
New England opposing quarterbacks: Carson Palmer, Ryan Tannehill, Brock Osweiler, Tyrod Taylor, Cody Kessler and Charlie Whitehurst, Andy Dalton, Landry Jones, Tyrod Taylor, Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jared Goff, Joe Flacco, Trevor Siemian, Bryce Petty and Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Moore, Brock Osweiler, and Ben Roethlisberger
Atlanta opposing quarterbacks: Jameis Winston, Derek Carr, Drew Brees, Cam Newton, Paxton Lynch, Russell Wilson, Phillip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, Jameis Winston, Carson Wentz, Carson Palmer, Alex Smith, Jared Goff, Colin Kaepernick, Cam Newton, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, and Aaron Rodgers
Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports
See what we’re getting at here? Who are the guys you’d consider a top 10 quarterback in the league that New England faced, versus who Atlanta faced? New England against consensus top 10 guys faced Russell Wilson and Ben Roethlisberger, and went 1-1 in those games, allowing 24 points per game. Atlanta against consensus top 10 guys faced Derek Carr, Drew Brees twice, Cam Newton twice, Aaron Rodgers twice, Russell Wilson twice, and Phillip Rivers. In those games, they went 8-2 and allowed an average of 27.3 points per game.
So Atlanta is no stranger to top opposing quarterbacks and they beat them with regularity. They allow a lot of points but they manage to outscore them because of their high-octane offense. New England is really somewhat untested against top quarterbacks this year. They faced a hobbled Russell Wilson early in the season and Ben Roethlisberger without Le’Veon Bell for most of the game, and went 1-1 giving up 24 points per game. That being said, is New England really an elite defense worthy of its #1 ranking in scoring defense, or are they more of a product of the opponents they faced? Is Atlanta really as bad as their 27th ranked scoring defense, or is that more of a product of facing so many top quarterbacks? Looking at it from this perspective, the gap between the defenses closes quite a bit while the offenses remain maybe the top 2. This makes it look a lot more evenly matched and tough to pick.
With a better look at how these teams got to where they are now, let’s now take a look at the keys to victory
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Atlanta Wins IF:
1) They start fast: Nobody scores more first drive touchdowns that Atlanta, and for them to beat New England it will be imperative that they get an early lead and play their game. They have the power on offense to come from behind, but trailing early to Tom Brady in the Super Bowl is dangerous territory. Atlanta has to jump on New England early to set the tone and control the pace of the game. If they do so, then:
2) They tee off on Tom Brady: While New England had a decent pass protection this season, much of that had to do with the balance of their offense and playing from ahead rather than stellar offensive line play. If Atlanta jumps out to an early lead and disrupts the balance of New England’s offense, they’ll be able to unleash pass rushers like Vic Beasley on Tom Brady. A guy like Beasley could be exposed against a powerful Blount running the ball, which makes starting fast for Atlanta that much more important. Putting pressure on Brady is the only way to keep him from picking apart any defense out there. If they aren’t hitting Brady, Brady will be pouring it on the points and they’ll just have to keep up.
3) Get the backs out in space: The Patriots have a fierce run defense with the big boys up front, and their linebackers are very strong against the run, but guys like Hightower could struggle a little bit if they are forced to line up in the slot covering Freeman or Coleman split out as receivers. With safety Devin McCourty likely being tasked to bracket Julio Jones, they won’t be able to take the backs away with this type of play. If they choose to put McCourty on the backs, Julio will be able to have a field way with 1 on 1 coverage. Look for Atlanta to find creative ways to get Freeman and Coleman the ball out in space because it’ll be tough running between the tackles, which could open things up for big plays from Julio as well. Teams that have won the rushing battle have won the Super Bowl 39 out of 50 times. Atlanta has the edge with their running backs, but it could be more because of their versatility in this matchup.
4) Find creative ways to get Julio the ball: as mentioned above, the running backs could play a key role in opening things up for Julio. Aside from the backs, look for offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan to find creative ways to get Julio involved. New England will likely be doubling Julio as much as they can, so look for Julio to get involved in some bunch formations that make it easy for him to get a free release and find some open space.
5) Win special teams: New England is phenomenal on special teams, and it will be imperative that Atlanta at least matches them in this game. New England builds themselves big advantages through simple things like winning field position, so it will be key for Atlanta to cancel them out in this aspect of the game to keep Brady honest.
Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports
New England wins IF:
1) They keep Tom Brady clean: New England will have to hold up to Atlanta’s pass rush and give Brady time to throw. Brady can pick apart any defense if he consistently has 3 or more seconds to throw, and if he has that, it will be a long day for Atlanta’s defense. Creative blitzes from super athletic guys like Vic Beasley and Deon Jones could be tough for New England’s line to pick up. Look for coach Dan Quinn to dial up some things Brady has not seen before.
2) Avoid the big play on defense: Atlanta crushes their opponents with explosive plays, and if New England can stop the big plays and force Atlanta to sustain longer drives with more plays in order to score, it will go a long way in slowing down the Atlanta offense. Guys like Julio and Taylor Gabriel can take it to the house any time they touch the ball which makes Atlanta so dangerous.
3) Tackle well: Adding on to avoiding the big play, much of what Atlanta does well can be neutralized by playing good fundamental defense and tackling well. Gabriel led all receivers in average yards after the catch, Julio was among the league leaders in total yards after the catch, Sanu is a nightmare to tackle in space, and Freeman and Coleman are both shifty but powerful backs that can shed many would be tacklers. If New England is going to slow Atlanta’s defense, they will have to stop them for minimal gains after the catch and after contact.
4) Take away Julio: We all know New England thrives on taking away the opposing teams top option, and for Atlanta that is Julio without a question. The problem is, there’s so many other guys that can beat you. First and foremost, they can’t let Julio have a big game because that opens things up for everyone else. If they shut down Julio through bracketing him with McCourty and whichever corner they put on him (likely Butler) they take a big element of Atlanta’s offense away. They can still beat you with only options 2 through 5, but it is a lot tougher without Julio.
5) Win the turnover battle: Atlanta absolutely crushed Green Bay because they forced crucial turnovers, and it will be imperative for New England to avoid any turnovers. Atlanta will make you pay for any turnovers by scoring when they get them, so New England will have to keep it clean. If they can keep it clean and force at least 1 turnover themselves, they’ll have an advantage. Atlanta has an athletic defense that flies to the ball and hits hard, and one big hit from a guy like Keanu Neal might be enough to force a big fumble.
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Prediction: There is just so much to digest with this matchup that it is hard to project. New England has the edge in experience and record but Atlanta comes in as hot as anyone having steamrolled any opponent in their wake recently. Atlanta won’t be afraid of the moment. Although their team lacks Super Bowl experience, head coach Dan Quinn, having come from Seattle, will be coaching in his 3rd super bowl in the past 4 years, this being the 2nd of which against New England. Historically, the top scoring defense wins against the top scoring offense more times than not, but as mentioned above, it is hard to buy in on New England’s defense completely with the extremely weak slate of opponents they have faced. Atlanta can beat you so many different ways, and if they force one big turnover from New England it could be game over. It’s suicide to bet against Brady and Belicheck in the Super Bowl, but guess what, we’re going to do it anyways
Final Score: Atlanta 30 New England 24
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