Will the 2016 Vikings be the Next 2015 Falcons?
Just 4 weeks ago the Minnesota Vikings were one of the surprise teams in the NFL. They were far exceeding expectations following the loss of starting quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and superstar running back Adrian Peterson. Newly acquired Sam Bradford was playing mistake free football, and coach Mike Zimmer’s defense was dominating every game. Heading into their bye week, they were atop the NFL at 5-0, with many people wondering, just how far can this team go?
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Following a 3rd consecutive loss on Sunday, those same Minnesota Vikings are now 5-3 and the possibility of missing the playoffs after a 5-0 start is becoming very real. Just how often do 5-0 teams miss the playoffs? You don’t have to go too far back to find the last team to do so. Last year, the Atlanta Falcons started 5-0 before their first loss to the New Orleans Saints. They bounced back from the loss with another win to improve to 6-1, before rattling off 6 straight losses to drop to 6-7 and eventually miss the playoffs and finishing the season 8-8. Although this happened last year, this is very uncommon. Since the playoffs expanded to 12 teams in 1990, only 5 out of 47 teams to start 5-0 missed the playoffs. With the Vikings currently sitting at 5-3 and some tough games looming against Washington, Arizona, Detroit, and Dallas, one has to wonder if they are traveling down the same road.
The biggest problem on the team currently is the offensive line. This past offseason, the Vikings invested heavily in the offensive line, bringing in a lot of competition as well as a new offensive line coach in Tony Sparano. The depth and competition quickly thinned as Phil Loadholt retired, Mike Harris went on the non-injury list as will not play this season, John Sullivan was cut, and starting tackles Matt Kalil and Andre Smith were both lost for the season with injuries. At this point, the Vikings are starting a left tackle who was out of football just a few weeks ago in Jake Long. The lack of an offensive line has led to zero production in the running game, allowing defenses to tee off on Sam Bradford. With Bradford being under immense pressure, he is no longer playing mistake free football, and has looked more like his old self.
It is no secret that this Vikings team was built to win on defense, and that is exactly what they did the first several weeks of the season. Through 8 games, the team has only scored 17 touchdowns, with two coming on defense and two coming on special teams. All four of the touchdowns on defense and special teams came during the 5-0 start. The defense has still mostly played well since the bye week, giving the offense a short field on numerous occasions following turnovers, but the offense hasn’t capitalized. Most notably, in the loss to the Eagles, the defense ran an interception back to the Eagles 1 yard line, and the offense failed to score, and turned it back over themselves. If the defense keeps handing the offense favorable situations, the offense needs to be able to help the defense out. They cannot rely on the defense scoring touchdowns week in and week out.
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Another area of concern has been kicker Blair Walsh. Walsh has been very inconsistent throughout his career, having some very impressive moments followed by some head scratching moments. If nothing else, he has been consistent this year, but not the type of consistent the Vikings and their fans are looking for. Walsh has consistently missed extra point attempts this season, and has been less than spectacular on field goal attempts. All told, he is 12-16 on field goal attempts, with 3 of his 4 misses coming inside 50 yards, and he is 13-16 on extra point attempts.
The culmination of these problems may have been Sunday against the Lions, in a 22-16 overtime loss. With the defense handing the offense a short field, starting on the Detroit 18 following a Chad Greenway interception, the offense failed to score. After a short gain, two costly penalties, and a sack, the Vikings suddenly had to punt, when a net gain of 0 yards would have led to a chip shot field goal. Whether they would have scored on such a chip shot field goal attempt is another question. In the game, 4 points were left off the board with a Walsh missed extra point attempt and a blocked field goal attempt. In a game that went to overtime with a 16-16 score, those 4 points and the non-score on offense were crucial in the eventual loss.
If the Vikings don’t shore up some of the issues they have shown the last few weeks, they very well may become the 6th team since 1990 to start 5-0 and miss the playoffs. If they can’t get just a little bit of consistency out of the offensive line to help the running game and Bradford, and if Walsh keeps missing, they will continue to lose games. Just a few weeks ago, they looked like a team that would be competing for home field advantage throughout the playoffs in the beautiful new US Bank Stadium. Now they are traveling to Washington, staring at a possible 5-4 record with another loss, and the serious possibility of missing the playoffs.
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