College Football Eliminator 2017-18: Halfway Point
Here we are, halfway through the 2017-18 college football season. It's been a wild one so far, and a brutal one for the Eliminator. 97 of the 128 teams have been eliminated, leaving just 31 teams left fighting for the four coveted playoff spots. 13 of these squads are undefeated, another 15 have one loss to their name, and three even have a chance of squeaking into the playoff with two losses. As we saw last year with two-loss Penn State finishing at #5, a two-loss team making the playoff is very possible and even more likely to happen this year than ever before, considering the small pool of teams left.
My preseason predictions were so wrong, it's not even funny. I predicted USC would take the National Championship and Sam Darnold would win MVP, but that doesn't look like it will come to fruition at the moment. I predicted Lamar Jackson to repeat as Heisman winner, but it looks as though defenses have him figured out this time around. I predicted Old Dominion would be the Group of Five team to make a New Year's Six Bowl, and I expect a handwritten apology for the way they've sucked the joint out this year. Anyways, see if your team is one of the 31 left in playoff contention halfway through the year.
Playoff Four
#1 Alabama, #2 Clemson, #3 Penn State, & #5 Washington are the four squads in the playoff if the season ended today. Technically Georgia should be here, but I'm taking into account the likelihood that Georgia loses before the end of the season, with an extremely difficult road to the playoff. Every other team here makes sense. No Big 12 in the playoff as of right now, although it's a toss-up between the purple teams.
Outside Looking In
#6 TCU, #7 Wisconsin, #4 Georgia, & #8 Washington State are the first four out. All are undefeated, all have a real shot at the playoff, and all get a real opportunity to impress the committee with top-ten match-ups and conference championship games looming.
In the Hunt
The mantra for these five squads is all the same: Just keep winning. A loss for Miami won't do them too much harm, as they still lead the ACC Coastal and will likely make the ACC Championship Game (a chance to beat Clemson). The other four, however, will not receive that opportunity, and must win out! UCF plays both Navy and South Florida in the regular season, and if South Florida wins that game, could face an undefeated Navy in a very important American Athletic Conference game. San Diego State's most important game left is this week against Boise State at home.
#11 Miami - The only undefeated Power Five team not in one of the first two categories are the Hurricanes. I feel as though there is a slight level of disrespect from the AP voters, seeding both Ohio State and Auburn higher than Miami, but do you really think Miami could beat either of those teams? Technically, any future regular-season loss will be seen as an upset; all future opponents are ranked underneath the 'Canes, including Virginia Tech and Notre Dame.
#25 Navy - Most of Navy's wins have been close. To me, a two-point skate-by over Tulane is a little too close. They will, however, have multiple chances to impress the committee with bouts against Memphis, UCF, Notre Dame, Houston, and a top-25 ranking.
#19 San Diego State - Any loss after Boise State would be a huge upset. If the Aztecs can get past the Broncos, it should be smooth sailing for Heisman-hopeful Rashaad Penny and friends.
#18 South Florida - The highest ranked Group of Five team, South Florida looks really strange. They play like a Big 12 team, with first downs on seemingly every other play, yet with sloppy defense. Their win over Illinois was single-handedly the strangest college football game I've ever watched in my life. But if there is one thing to note, it's that all their wins have been big.
- UCF does not look like South Florida. They look better. Their defense is stout, yet they score like Texas Tech or...South Florida. I'm anticipating an undefeated season for the Knights of Orlando, including a win over 11-0 South Florida come Black Friday. If only we could've got to watch them take on Georgia Tech.
On the Fence
Some of these teams control their own destinies. Others do not. One thing they all have in common is that they are in the bottom-18 of a 31-team pool, meaning losses are detrimental to any hopes of reaching the Rose or Sugar Bowl on New Year's Eve. The Eliminator Game is all about winning the division and having a chance at a conference title, so that's why Texas, Stanford, and Florida are still here. All other two-loss teams are out.
ACC Atlantic
#20 North Carolina State - The Wolfpack have two tough tests left this season: a trip to South Bend to take on Notre Dame and a home-stand against Clemson in November. If the Fighting Irish don't take out NC State with two non-conference losses, Clemson surely will.
#16 Notre Dame - The Fighting Irish will be considered ACC Atlantic for Eliminator purposes as they play three games against teams coming from this division as an Independent. Notre Dame is a one-point home loss to Georgia away from being a serious contender, considering their nice win over now-ranked Michigan State and tough schedule ahead. Five of their last six games are against ranked opponents. No conference championship game could be an issue, though.
ACC Coastal
Virginia - It's a fluke that they've even gotten this far. The crazy part is, they might actually win their next three games (@ UNC, vs. Boston College, @ Pitt). I can't see them getting past Georgia Tech, however, so the buck stops there.
- I love watching the triple-threat offense work. It's a thing of beauty really, and the Yellow Jackets will put it to the test against Miami on Saturday at Hard Rock Stadium. If they win, they're neck-and-neck for the division title. If they lose, it's an elimination game.
#15 Virginia Tech - Clemson controls their own destiny thanks to their two-touchdown win over Virginia Tech, so even if they lose one ACC game, the Tigers go through to the ACC title game. It's hard to imagine a scenario where VT makes the playoff, but they could win out and make the Orange Bowl without a doubt.
Big 12
#12 Oklahoma - An away win over Ohio State, but a home loss to Iowa State? What a goof. The Red River Rivalry at the Cotton Bowl will be extremely telling as to what kind of team Oklahoma really is this year.
#14 Oklahoma State - When OSU takes on Texas in two weeks time, it will certainly be an elimination game for both sides, which are both playing good football at the moment. I would find a TV when that one comes on.
#24 Texas Tech - My grandma could beat Kansas with ten of her card-playing friends.
Big Ten East
#9 Ohio State - Picture this: The Ohio State-Michigan game might not even decide the Big Ten East this year. Crazy thought, but Penn State is in the driver's seat early on this year, and isn't showing any signs of slowing down, if you catch my drift. Boom, three car puns in one sentence!
#21 Michigan State - So Michigan State wins in Ann Arbor, but Michigan wins in East Lansing. Makes perfect sense. Dates in November with Penn State and Ohio State back-to-back loom for the Spartans.
#17 Michigan - My sleeper pick of the week is Indiana over Michigan in Bloomington. If that one comes true, say goodbye to the Wolverines.
PAC-12 South
#13 USC - I don't know what to think about this Trojans team. The team I originally picked to win the National Championship now has a loss to Washed-Up State under their belt and a nail-biting win over Texas.
Utah - After the loss to Stanford, it's beat USC or go home for the Utes.
SEC West
#10 Auburn - LSU, Georgia, 'Bama, oh my!
SEC East
Kentucky - The Wildcats are still here and they will be for another week, thanks to a bye! Another crazy fact: Georgia is their only ranked opponent left.
Hanging by a Thread
I'm not doing this because I'm biased. Okay maybe I am, but I'm mostly doing this because there is a real possibility a two-loss team will make the playoff this year. It won't necessarily be one of these teams, and it probably won't be. But look out for a two-loss team to steal a conference title and take the fourth playoff spot. If you are a fan of a two-loss team and you're wondering why your team isn't here, then your division includes either Alabama, Clemson, or Wisconsin. These are for busted-wide-open conferences only, and the Big 12.
Texas - Still undefeated in conference play thanks to overtime heroics in Austin over Kansas State, the Longhorns have a real chance of finishing in the top two of the Big 12 and making the CG. They absolutely must win out for a chance at the playoff though, as the rest of this category requires. Red River Rivalry on Saturday coming off a win, and an Oklahoma loss looks promising.
#23 Stanford - The only ranked two-loss team still gets Oregon, Washington, Washington State, and Notre Dame to impress the committee and hopefully win the PAC-12 North. Likely? No. Impossible? Not quite.
Florida - If there was any respect between LSU and Florida before Saturday, it's gone now. All of it. This is a rivalry fueled by hatred. First, the hurricane re-scheduling issue in 2016. The pre-game scuffle was followed by a Florida victory on the last play and a statement from Coach McElwain saying LSU had "got what they deserved." Fast forward to this year: a one-point LSU victory in The Swamp, the LSU band playing during the Tom Petty tribute, and one Derrius Guice tweet that broke Gator hearts.
Read next week to see if your team is still alive in 'College Football Eliminator 2017-18: Week Seven!'
