The Curious Case of Jameis Winston
Jameis Winston, one of my favorite NFL Quarterbacks, and a free agent no one seems to want. Why is that? Is it his 30 interceptions he threw in 2019? Is it his character? Or is it even deeper than that?
Jameis Winston led the NFL in passing yards in 2019, throwing for 5,109 yards in addition to throwing 33 touchdowns (3rd in the NFL). Tack onto that an NFL leading 30 interceptions, and Winston had a year for the ages in 2019. Were the yards and Touchdowns purely by mistake? Were they a factor of garbage time stats? Not so fast.
Only three of the Buccaneers nine losses last season were by more than one possession, and only one was by more than two possessions. In the Buccaneers seven wins Winston threw for 2,446 yards, 17 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. Meaning in their nine losses he threw for 2,663 yards, 16 touchdowns, and 21 interceptions. Him having more total yards in his losses and nearly just as many touchdowns is a very misleading stat.
Not only did Winston lose two more game than he won, but as a losing Quarterback he averaged less yards and touchdowns per games, in addition to averaging way more interceptions. So, you definitely could argue he can lose you games. While you could just as easily that he can win you games, with an average of 349.4 yards, 2.4 touchdwon passes, and only 1.28 interceptions per game in wins. If you get 349 yards and 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception from your Quarterback you'd rarely complain about that. However, a 295.8 yards, 1.7 touchdowns, and 2.3 interceptions average in losses is enough to drive fans beyond the brink of insanity.
Enter Philip Rivers, a Quarterback who is considered a Hall of Fame Quarterback. Rivers has 397 touchdowns compared to 198 interceptions in his career. Which is good for a ratio of two passing touchdowns per interception, nearly identical to the averages in the games Winston ends up victorious. I couldn't logically argue Winston is a better Quarterback, he's not. Winston averages only 1.375 touchdowns per interception. Why compare the two? Because both do something incredibly similar to me.
Philip Rivers and Jameis Winston are the masters of throwing late game interceptions that hamper their teams winning chances, while also taking the risks necessary it takes to win games. Winston just isn't hitting on as many of those risks as Rivers. But it stands to ask, would Winston have to take as many late game risks if he had played with a Hall of fame running back, a Hall of fame Tight end, and many great wide receivers? I'd have to say no. Rivers was gifted with the supporting cast Winston has never received. If given the same level of talented skill players as Rivers, it's very likely Winston's numbers would be on par with Rivers. Yet, Rivers has never been questioned as a starter and has never served as a backup.
Maybe I'm a little blinded by my fandom for Winston, a guy that when he was drafted I claimed, "he will win a Super Bowl in Tampa." Well, I was wrong on that one, unless he leads a team to a Super Bowl win that's played in Raymond James Stadium. I could seriously give plenty of reasons why I think Winston is poised to be a great NFL Quarterback: he's got incredible arm strength, good pocket presence, good footwork within the pocket, his accuracy can be questionable at times but is still manageable for an NFL QB. The only reason I've ever heard for him not being deserving of a chance to be a great NFL Quarterback, "he throws too many interceptions." There's definitely more arguments to be made for him to be a good Quarterback than there are to not.
So why aren't teams taking a shot on him? Chris Simms of NBC Sports explains it perfectly in a video I found on YouTube (https://youtu.be/GMr6wsMrjbk). If you don't want to watch the video, the title explains it all, Simms believes "Jameis Winston's talent could scare teams off." This statement may not make sense to some people, so let me explain it.
Teams want to believe they are right when they have a young Quarterback they deem to have potential. They don't want to give anyone else a chance to be their starting Quarterback, because then they have to admit they were wrong even if that means sacrificing wins. Rather than sign a talented free agent Quarterback to push their young guy, they'd rather be wrong, draft a new Quarterback and start all over. Winston is purely a factor of this. He'd be an upgrade from the starting Quarterbacks in AT Least Miami, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Los Angeles (Chargers), Las Vegas, Chicago, and Washington. I say at least because there's maybe even more teams he'd serve as an upgrade for but there's arguements to be made on those fronts.
What do all of those teams Winston could serve as an upgrade for have in common? They all have a young Quarterback or are looking to draft one. Miami has a veteran Quarterback in Ryan Fitzpatrick holding down the fort currently, but they're looking to draft someone. Ryan Tannehill had a breakout year last year, that isn't remarkably close to anything he's ever done before, so it's safe to say he won't regress and is worth a 4 year/$118 million deal. Right...Jacksonville believes Gardner Minshew is their franchise savior, even if his 2019 numbers were significantly worse than Winston's with only two less starts. The Chargers are rolling with Tyrod Taylor, who has three starts in the last two seasons, but they'll likely draft someone like Justin Herbert from Oregon. The Raiders signed Marcus Mariota to hopefully push a regressing Derek Carr to be better, so essentially they'd rather sign two Quarterbacks with numbers nowhere near Winston's to push each other rather than take a chance on Winston. Chicago has about had it with their young Quarterback Mitch Trubisky, so they traded for a Super Bowl winning backup Quarterback who has never had any success as a starter, rather than sign Winston who has at least had quality numbers as a starter. Washington on the other hand, it's reasonable for them to give second year Quarterback Dwayne Haskins another chance after drafting him 15th in the 2019 NFL Draft, but would it really kill Haskins to have a good backup to push him to be better? Because if Haskins performs poorly in 2020, he may just find himself in the world of backups by 2021.
If after reading that you still don't believe teams are too stubborn to admit they were wrong on what they deemed to be their franchise Quarterback at one point, I don't know what to tell you. You may have a case of Jameis Winston derangement syndrome, which is the beginning of title to a book titled "Jameis Winston Derangement Syndrome: How Media Bias Causes Us to Overlook the Start of a Hall of Fame NFL Career" written by Jacquez Green, a Former NFL Wide receiver and University of Florida Football Hall of Famer. While I have not read the book, I do follow the Twitter account of the author (@jameis1of1), and he uses numbers to backup Winston's case that even I can't understand sometimes. Regardless, it's nice to see someone who also believes that the media has made Winston out to look like a worse Quarterback than he actually is.
For every Chris Simms and Jacquez Green in the media, there's many more who argue 30 interceptions alone is too much of a reason alone for Jameis to be a starter in the NFL. What's sad is, someone can write a book on why Jameis Winston will be a great Quarterback, and people can only seem to find one rebuttal for why he won't and it isn't even clever. Take it as you want, I'm not here to turn non-believers into believers, but there's no way this guy shouldn't be signed as over two weeks into free agency. If Jameis Winston ever gets another chance to start, the question will be answered. Is Jameis Winston NFL starting Quarterback material or not?
